January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[TxJohn]

The 0z NAM looks aggressive with precip for the Houston area.

But it's coming down as sleet....hmmm

[PaulEInHouston]

I'd plan on staying HOME on Tuesday. The freezing rain and sleet should begin by sunrise and road conditions should deteriorate through the morning. By late morning the roads may become impassible. Sleet and snow is likely during the afternoon, making the roads even more treacherous as temps fall into the 20s.

I'm certainly planning on working from home Tuesday. Seems like an easy call.

Going to probably take the day off Tuesday as well here (along with my brother, another avid weather buff). We may go "mobile" during this event and report/video from the area(s) that appear to have the worst conditions. Yeah, I know, instead of "tornado" chasing, we'd be "winter weather" chasing...but hey, it's all good and fun! One of my many "bucket list" items...chase winter weather and chase tornados!! If the roads are too treacherous, then it's time for a fire in the back yard pit and a couple of bevvies to welcome what's coming. Either way, am learning a lot from everyone here...hope everyone gets what they are wishing for!

[Mr. T]

The 0z NAM looks aggressive with precip for the Houston area.

It was just ever so slightly slower with the upper low. Less widespread qpf and just a tad warmer. Closed off longer and drags its feet. We really don't want this to slow down any more...

[cisa]

Ok so I have a question...trying not to get too excited because I've lived here way too long. I've been reading on NWS, etc. talking little or no accumulation. Are they just being cautious? I know there's no way of knowing for certain. I live and work in Montgomery County and I'm just trying to formulate a game plan for the week. I'm not going to hold anyone to it thanks guys.

Short answer, yes. They say little or no accumulation in their public forecast then discuss how much moisture will be falling in the cold air in the internal forecast discussion.

Thank you Wxman57. That helps.

[TxJohn]

I don't like that NAM run....hopefully the GFS is better....

[cristina6871]

Just saw a commercial for KTRK that the mayor will make remarks regarding the winter storm watch...

[don]

Im becoming fairly confident that we will see another winter storm Tuesday, btw NAM shows .25 of an inch to almost half an inch of liquid across the central counties of southeast Texas, the question is the precipitation in the form of snow, sleet (NAM thinks sleet...), or could we have a surprise like in 2011 were the moisture falls as primarily freezing rain? (looks less likely right now) Hopefully the precipitation doesn't fall as freezing rain cause that would be one hell of an ice storm.

[cperk]

I don't like that NAM run....hopefully the GFS is better....

What don't you like about it.

[TxJohn]

I don't like that NAM run....hopefully the GFS is better....

What don't you like about it.

I don't like that it's showing a more sleet situation..with a stubborn warm nose.

[txsnowmaker]

Anyone want to chime in on the NAM's track record re: p-type within 42 hours or so of winter weather systems?

[mcheer23]

From David Paul VIA Facebook

Monday night and Tuesday may find most neighborhoods in southeast Texas with snow on the ground. Here's the timeline as it stands now.

A band of snow is expect to develop in central Texas and move into our northern counties beginning 3am Tuesday morning. College Station, Huntsville and Livingston may have 1"-2" of snow on the ground by sunrise Tuesday.

The snow pushes south, giving Brenham, Conroe and Liberty their chance of snow between about 5am and 9am Tuesday.

By late Tuesday morning the snow is along the I-10 corridor and may begin to mix with sleet south of downtown, elevating the risk for ice on bridges and overpasses from Katy to Sugar Land, Houston to Baytown and south toward Pearland and League City. Travel is not recommended.

By lunchtime Tuesday the sleet/snow mix is in our southern counties and another inch or two of frozen mix may fall on Alvin, Texas City and Galveston before exiting in the late afternoon Tuesday.

There may still be areas of snow or sleet continuing through 9pm Tuesday evening.

Because this is forecast to be a heavier winter event than last Friday, bridges and even some surface streets (especially in rural areas) may stay icy until midday Wednesday.

Because this is southeast Texas, this is all subject to change. Please share and check back here often for updates as we get closer to what may be quite a snow for us!

[Paul Robison]

Anyone want to chime in on how much damage this is going to do to trees, houses, cars, etc.?

From David Paul VIA Facebook

Monday night and Tuesday may find most neighborhoods in southeast Texas with snow on the ground. Here's the timeline as it stands now.

A band of snow is expect to develop in central Texas and move into our northern counties beginning 3am Tuesday morning. College Station, Huntsville and Livingston may have 1"-2" of snow on the ground by sunrise Tuesday.

The snow pushes south, giving Brenham, Conroe and Liberty their chance of snow between about 5am and 9am Tuesday.

By late Tuesday morning the snow is along the I-10 corridor and may begin to mix with sleet south of downtown, elevating the risk for ice on bridges and overpasses from Katy to Sugar Land, Houston to Baytown and south toward Pearland and League City. Travel is not recommended.

By lunchtime Tuesday the sleet/snow mix is in our southern counties and another inch or two of frozen mix may fall on Alvin, Texas City and Galveston before exiting in the late afternoon Tuesday.

There may still be areas of snow or sleet continuing through 9pm Tuesday evening.

Because this is forecast to be a heavier winter event than last Friday, bridges and even some surface streets (especially in rural areas) may stay icy until midday Wednesday.

Because this is southeast Texas, this is all subject to change. Please share and check back here often for updates as we get closer to what may be quite a snow for us!

Does this mean we won't get to see you on TV tomorrow and tuesday, David?

[SusieinLP]

I do hope anything frozen starts Monday night so there will be no question on Tuesday to close down businesses and schools. Otherwise I see a huge mess..

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I do hope anything frozen starts Monday night so there will be no question on Tuesday to close down businesses and schools. Otherwise I see a huge mess..

Yep, for me that might happen but for Houston Proper and LP that doesn't look likely.

[Paul Robison]

I do hope anything frozen starts Monday night so there will be no question on Tuesday to close down businesses and schools. Otherwise I see a huge mess..

Yep, for me that might happen but for Houston Proper and LP that doesn't look likely.

I don't follow you, MontgomeryCoWx. Please explain what you just said.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The more I look at soundings the more I think that this storm for Houston will be like the Dallas storm from December. Up to 3-4 inches of sleet in isolated locations

[srainhoutx]

The 21Z SPC SREF suggests a more prolonged event with higher frozen QPF. The 00Z HIRES NAM also suggests some impressive banding features and is also a bit more prolonged with the precip. I suspect some changes are ahead with the overnight forecasts from both the local NWS offices as well as the WPC Winter Weather Outlook Probabilities.

[cisa]

I'm in Porter and work in Conroe. FM 1314 is bad enough on a rainy day. This looks like a Hot Cocoa forecast, not a driving one. I'm not sure how that will fly with work though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GTE >6" snow probs have all of SE TX in the 20-30% shade

[cisa]

The 21Z SPC SREF suggests a more prolonged event with higher frozen QPF. The 00Z HIRES NAM also suggests some impressive banding features and is also a bit more prolonged with the precip. I suspect some changes are ahead with the overnight forecasts from both the local NWS offices as well as the WPC Winter Weather Outlook Probabilities.

Precip for longer period of time, greater amount, still frozen?