January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

the 09Z SPC SREF ensemble mean continues to advertise wintry weather across the Southern half of Texas into Louisiana. It sure seems like I have seen this movie before...

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's a look at the 00z CMC...one can only hope, right?

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim. ... na&lang=en

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has trended a bit stronger with the closed core upper air disturbance crossing Mexico early next week and is not cutting that feature off ~vs~ what it has been suggesting. A more progressive disturbance that continues moving E would tend to favor increased over running and precip developing after the Arctic air mass is firmly entrenched across our Region. There are also hints of yet another Coastal trough developing which further increases the odds that more wintry weather may well be possible, albeit light. We will see.

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[Ptarmigan]

I looked at GFS for surface precipitation type in 78 hours. It shows snow over Southeast Texas.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS suggests .10 to .25 qpf amounts from S Texas all the way to SW Louisiana. 050 inch amounts are offshore, but the GEFS is 'wetter' for areas along the I-10 Corridor and inland just a bit, but further S along Coastal Texas into Louisiana are in the .25 range, if the GEFS is correct.

[SusieinLP]

I had enough ice and artic cold this year so I hope it's a bust and all the cold air goes east. I'm ready for 70s and some rain.

[cperk]

I had enough ice and artic cold this year so I hope it's a bust and all the cold air goes east. I'm ready for 70s and some rain.

70's are fine but when we get them they are short lived before the 90's and 100's take over for 4 or more months.

[TxJohn]

The 12Z GEFS suggests .10 to .25 qpf amounts from S Texas all the way to SW Louisiana. 050 inch amounts are offshore, but the GEFS is 'wetter' for areas along the I-10 Corridor and inland just a bit, but further S along Coastal Texas into Louisiana are in the .25 range, if the GEFS is correct.

I'll take that. I don't need any accumulation...I just need to see snowflakes falling for 10 minutes and it can stop after.

[TxJohn]

I think it's a little too soon for our local mets to be mentioning this......but that's just me.

Tim Heller says on Facebook: "Quick look at the models this morning shows another chance of freezing rain/sleet next TUESDAY. More on this later this afternoon..."

David Paul also said 20% chance of snow Tuesday via his Facebook page....

This evening's weather reports will be interesting....

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z MEX/MAV and MOS text data suggest temperatures will drop into the upper 20's/low 30's behind the front. The text data also suggests wintry weather in the form of freezing rain/sleet and snow albeit light for IAH. Edit to add that the text data is showing about the same for College Station, Conroe, Hobby, Victoria, Lake Charles and lighter amounts for Austin.

[cperk]

How rare would it be for Houston to have two frozen events so close together,when usually,Houston goes years without anything frozen.

Two winter weather events in a five day period does not happen often in southeast Texas.

[tireman4]

Check with Ptarmingan on that. I know January of 1973 was close together

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Nice warm up over the past 24 hours underway today with mainly sunny skies and returning southerly winds.

Warm up will be short lived and another arctic boundary will be plowing through the state by Monday brining another round of cold temperatures.

Upper air pattern remains locked in place with a deep trough over the eastern US and ridge over the western US which continues to send cold arctic air out of NW Canada southward into the plains and Midwest and then toward the east coast. TX is on the western edge of this trough and a slight buckle as seen Thursday will send a piece of these very cold air masses a little bit further south and west across the state. This looks to happen again by early next week with another arctic boundary moving down the plains and off the TX coast.

Expect the boundary to reach the area Monday and push off the coast Monday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s on Sunday and highs on Monday will be prior to the front and then quickly fall into the 30’s and 40’s behind the boundary with another bout of strong north winds. Temperatures by Tuesday morning look to be freezing or below across nearly all of the area.

Precipitation Chances:

Up until last night this front looked mostly dry with just an increase in clouds, but recent model guidance is now suggesting a piece of energy may drop into the area around Baja and attempt to push moisture northward into the cold air. This brings into question yet again the potential for a mix of winter precipitation starting late Monday into early Tuesday and possibly lasting into late Wednesday. Forecast models are not in good agreement at all on if moisture can push back into the region fighting against the southward push of dry cold arctic air. What is concerning is that yesterday none of the models were suggesting any precipitation at all in the cold air and now today they are all to varying degrees trying to push moisture back into the region from the SSW. Much will likely depend on how the piece of energy near Baja is handled. A more cut-off and stalled piece of energy would likely keep lift and moisture out of the area while a more progressive system would bring moisture and lift back into the cold air. Not enough confidence in either solution at this point to attempt to side one way or the other.

Given the broad spectrum of possibilities at this point and the very low confidence think the best course of action is to lean toward the drier solution and await additional model runs to see if the “wetter” trend holds or increases….if so winter precipitation and potential accumulation will have to be closely examined for the Tuesday-Wednesday period as it appears temperatures will be cold enough to support a mixture of P-types. A wait and see approach for the next 24 hours.

Note:

Model liquid accumulations were on the low side for the last event (Thursday-Friday). Rain gages showed anywhere from .30-.50 of an inch of liquid with ice/sleet accumulations of around .05 to .15 of an inch. Luckily the temperature was above freezing during a good part of the rainfall on Thursday evening or icing would have been much more significant. As proven it only takes a very small amount of ice on roadways to cause really big problems.

Snowfall rations across our northern counties matched very well with the liquid to solid relationship. Amounts averaged 1-2 inches with a couple of 3-4 inch amounts around Lake Livingston. Interestingly the forecast models suggested the greatest band of precip. would be along the I-10 and US 59 corridors when in reality the best banding ended up from College Station to Livingston in an area where it appeared before the event too much dry air would be in place.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC Winter Weather Desk is currently updating their graphics. Expect some fairly significant development regard both snow/freezing rain/sleet potentials across S Central/SE Texas and Louisiana...

[ticka1]

The WPC Winter Weather Desk is currently updating their graphics. Expect some fairly significant development regard both snow/freezing rain/sleet potentials across S Central/SE Texas and Louisiana...

do i need to stock up again and start cooking my soups and chili for the next round of winter weather?

[unome]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

wow...

can do without the ice, but snow would be totally awesome, provided overpasses/bridges are treated correctly & closed quickly when it's frozen

I hope it doesn't rain first & wash the stuff away again

http://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotman ... micals.htm

[randybpt]

Doesn't look like much

[wxman57]

The Euro predicts about an inch of snow in Houston Tuesday. Canadian last night said 3-6". Haven't seen 12Z yet.

[randybpt]

Ok now that has my attention Wxman didn't post much about last event
So what does this MEAN???

[Snowman]

The NAM shows a full blown snowstorm for southern Louisiana! As a student of Tulane University in New Orleans I never thought I would ever be seeing a snow day, but if this played out that would certainly be in the realm of possibilities!