January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z GFS trended a bit `wetter` and each of the successive runs of the SREF/HRRR/ WRF/NAM continue to increase precipitation and lift. The Arctic front is moving quickly across Texas and should be along the Coast near mid day. It is a little worrisome to see deeper convection firing just W of Baja that is feeding the mid/upper level moisture across Mexico into Texas. Radar returns are developing and should increase throughout the day across our Region.

[cristina6871]

I am prepared....stopped last night and got some "bad/winter weather" food! After reading everything on here (which I think I need a crash course in understanding all the lingo), and watching a certain weather person this morning, I think they are still being conservative on the temps. I've been reading all the posts and getting a better handle on what could happen (or will happen) beginning tonight. Does anyone think it will end up being worse than is being projected?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I am prepared....stopped last night and got some "bad/winter weather" food! After reading everything on here (which I think I need a crash course in understanding all the lingo), and watching a certain weather person this morning, I think they are still being conservative on the temps. I've been reading all the posts and getting a better handle on what could happen (or will happen) beginning tonight. Does anyone think it will end up being worse than is being projected?

We've had busts down here to the upside and downside. It certainly could be worse. Worse in this scenario would be close to a 1/2" inch of ice or a couple inches of sleet.

[txsnowmaker]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

[cperk]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

That's a good idea.

[ticka1]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

If you can get an earlier flight - I would do so.

[txsnowmaker]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

That's a good idea.

It won't come without a cost (would miss a business meeting). What has me a bit confused on what to do is that the winter storm warning starts at 9pm but the NWS forecast discussion holds off on freezing rain etc in metro Houston until 6 am.

[srainhoutx]

txsnowmaker, there is already 'chatter' with flight ops concerning primarily HOU of the start time of freezing precip. The general thinking is after midnight for HOU. IAH may start seeing ZR/IP before mid night. Good Luck!

[stormlover]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

12 nam is rolling

[djmike]

Guys. I have an idea what Houston can expect overnight, but what do you think about the Golden Triangle area? Im wanting to start posting warnings on my FB page, but want to get your opinion first on what we can expect here. Thanks

[txsnowmaker]

txsnowmaker, there is already 'chatter' with flight ops concerning primarily HOU of the start time of freezing precip. The general thinking is after midnight for HOU. IAH may start seeing ZR/IP before mid night. Good Luck!

Thanks srain and fellow forum members. I don't know what the runway deicing capabilities are at the big airport, and not sure I want to take a chance on finding out that they're not up to par or nonexistent.

[jeff]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

Doubt it...probably after 300am

[stormlover]

Guys. I have an idea what Houston can expect overnight, but what do you think about the Golden Triangle area? Im wanting to start posting warnings on my FB page, but want to get your opinion first on what we can expect here. Thanks

DJ mike what is ur email address? I have some info from a buddy of mine that is a meteorologist also the nam runs has a good line on us on the new run

[txsnowmaker]

A little guidance from the pros would be most helpful: Are road conditions between IAH and metro Houston expected to be hazardous before 1 am? Am scheduled to arrive on a flight at 12:20 am but am thinking about rescheduling for an earlier arrival.

Doubt it...probably after 300am

Fantastic. I am double booked in case I need to get out earlier but will stay on the later flight unless things change. Thanks Jeff!

[djmike]

Guys. I have an idea what Houston can expect overnight, but what do you think about the Golden Triangle area? Im wanting to start posting warnings on my FB page, but want to get your opinion first on what we can expect here. Thanks

DJ mike what is ur email address? I have some info from a buddy of mine that is a meteorologist also the nam runs has a good line on us on the new run

~~~~

I PMd you my email. Thanks!!!

[cristina6871]

Has the rain chances decreased? Last night at the 6 pm weather, DP gave a 50-60% chance today and a 60% chance tomorrow.

[randybpt]

Dj mike what does the nam say about golden triangle

[srainhoutx]

Has the rain chances decreased? Last night at the 6 pm weather, DP gave a 50-60% chance today and a 60% chance tomorrow.

Some of the computer models end the precip a bit sooner while others keep our precip chances going until tomorrow night, cristina. We are getting to that point where we will just have to watch the radar and temperature profiles and as David Paul stated last night, this forecast will likely have to be adjusted as did NWS Houston/Galveston. These winter weather events are always very tricky in our part of the world and can literally change hour by hour. Stay Tuned!

[stormlover]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

GFS 12 run is rolling and its looking fun for the golden triangle!!

[Portastorm]

Latest update out of EWX ... here is their mid-morning AFD. Interesting insights on P-types:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.UPDATE...
REFRESHED TEMPERATURES/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO MENTION LIGHT SLEET RATHER THAN
FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE ESCARPMENT COUNTIES AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO CHANGED WORDING FROM
RAIN TO LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS LIKELY EVAPORATING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THIS EVAPORATION COULD ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SLEET AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIALLY LOWERS TEMPERATURES TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE SLEET LOOKS TO
BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...WITH POCKETS OR MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE FREEZING COLUMN OF AIR TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NORTH AND MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT SLEET-
SNOW SOUTHERN HALF TONIGHT. DIVIDING LINE WILL GENERALLY BE
I10/HY90 EAST/WEST SAN ANTONIO RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE
SHORT TERM.