January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[ronyan]

It looks like about a 10 day January thaw, then the pattern may flip as the Arctic reloads...

The AO is forecast to go negative around mid-month by the ensembles with the PNA turning positive. That could lead to a colder period for us but looking at the GFS today shows a regime that would favor cold dumps north and east of TX during the latter part of this month. Still very far out but without a blocking high in Greenland we might only expect glancing cold fronts. I'm an amateur and this is just my impression of the model and pattern now.

[Paul Robison]

Cold shelf waters, low clouds that don't burn off, convective temps not reached, looking like a boring Spring for FUNderstorms locally.


Even warm humid airmasses from the Caribbean drawn into deep storms this Spring will have to pass those cold shelf waters. Nearshore waters now colder than 20ºC.


I don't study trends, but I wonder if cold Winters are historically followed by dry and boring Springs.

Dear Ed:

Any FUNderstorms likely this friday?
(No trolling, you understand, but you know my concerns)

[skidog40]

interesting

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:
:
BUSH IAH: 21

Hobby: 25

College Station: 19

Galveston: 28

Tomball: 20

Sugar Land: 22

Brenham: 19

Conroe: 16

Bellville: 19

Angleton: 18

Cleveland: 16

Danevang: 19

El Campo: 23

Eagle Lake: 20

Huntsville: 17

Liberty: 22

Madisonville: 15

Matagorda: 23

Freeport: 20

Crockett: 19

Palacios: 23

Victoria: 24

 

Llano: 11

Austin Bergstrom: 12

Bastrop: 12

Giddings: 17

Camp Swift: 11

Beaumont: 23

New Braunfels: 13

San Antonio: 22

Corpus Christi: 30

Lowest recorded temperature this morning was 9, 5 miles SSW of Telegraph, TX in Edwards County.

Records:

Austin Bergstrom: low of 12 broke previous record of 17 set in 1970

 

[ronyan]

Update from Jeff:
:
Angleton: 18

Freeport: 20

 

I may need to check my station. That would seem to support a temp of 19F in Lake Jackson but I didn't get anything close to that here. Off by 5-6 degrees, the lowest I got on mine was 24.6.

[srainhoutx]

Rain and storm chances increasing over the next couple of days. Gusty S winds have established across our Region as the Arctic High moves further to the E and a rather potent trough heads towards the Southern Plains. There is still some concern as to how much moisture can return, but dew points in the low to mid 60's and a favorable entrance of the strong southerly flow suggest some isolated strong to possibly severe storms may develop by mid day Friday into the evening hours. The SPC has outlined E/SE Texas into Louisiana for the potential of stronger surfaced based storms. A Pacific front should pass our Region by Sunday in a very progressive zonal flow where abundant Pacific moisture and fast moving storms systems become the theme for the next week or so. A strong upper low should cross Northern Mexico early next week ushering in cooler temps. The longer range ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to advertise a reloading pattern across Alaska and Western Canada where much below normal temperature increase and build before that pesky Polar Vortex drops S once again and perhaps sends much colder Arctic air well S into the Plains and into our Region just beyond mid January.

01082014 SPC day3otlk_0830.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS (for Houston). No freeze through the 24th. Some rain near the 23rd, perhaps? I like those upper 60s for the weekend. That, along with some sunshine, will make for OK biking weather (not great, just OK). I'd prefer 88 degrees over 68, but beggars can't be choosers...

[Paul Robison]

Rain and storm chances increasing over the next couple of days. Gusty S winds have established across our Region as the Arctic High moves further to the E and a rather potent trough heads towards the Southern Plains. There is still some concern as to how much moisture can return, but dew points in the low to mid 60's and a favorable entrance of the strong southerly flow suggest some isolated strong to possibly severe storms may develop by mid day Friday into the evening hours. The SPC has outlined E/SE Texas into Louisiana for the potential of stronger surfaced based storms. A Pacific front should pass our Region by Sunday in a very progressive zonal flow where abundant Pacific moisture and fast moving storms systems become the theme for the next week or so. A strong upper low should cross Northern Mexico early next week ushering in cooler temps. The longer range ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to advertise a reloading pattern across Alaska and Western Canada where much below normal temperature increase and build before that pesky Polar Vortex drops S once again and perhaps sends much colder Arctic air well S into the Plains and into our Region just beyond mid January.

01082014 SPC day3otlk_0830.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

This is no laughing matter folks! Could be a very busy day for Center Point Energy linemen! Outages could number in the THOUSANDS!!!!
Ladies and gentlemen of this forum, Mother Nature has declared war on the City of Houston, and I'm sorry to say, she's winning!

[cristina6871]

my mom was reading the Sci Guy and he said we were finished with the cold weather for January.....please say it isn't so.....

[Ptarmigan]

Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS (for Houston). No freeze through the 24th. Some rain near the 23rd, perhaps? I like those upper 60s for the weekend. That, along with some sunshine, will make for OK biking weather (not great, just OK). I'd prefer 88 degrees over 68, but beggars can't be choosers...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan8.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zjan8.gif

68 is much nicer than 88. I say ideal.

[Paul Robison]

Latest NAMHIRES sim-reflectivity shows worst of the storms passing Houston to the Northeast.




Hope it's right.

THIS doesn't make any sense to me though. It's from INTELLICAST:

[srainhoutx]

A nice rainy day across SE Texas this morning. We needed this rain after all the freezing temperatures and extremely low dew points that had left our Region bone dry and may have contributed to wild fires if we hadn't received any rain. The storm chances appear a bit better further N and E on Friday where the upper dynamics should be a bit more conducive for storm formation.

[Ounce]

Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS (for Houston). No freeze through the 24th. Some rain near the 23rd, perhaps? I like those upper 60s for the weekend. That, along with some sunshine, will make for OK biking weather (not great, just OK). I'd prefer 88 degrees over 68, but beggars can't be choosers...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zjan8.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zjan8.gif

68 is much nicer than 88. I say ideal.

I'd prefer the Monday the 20th weather on the 19th for the marathon.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram that covers the marathon. Current 2m temps forecast to range from the upper 40s to the low-mid 60s for the 19th. Note that the 12Z European model (just arrived) is forecasting upper 30s for Houston's low on the 19th.



And for this coming week:

[Ounce]

thanks for posting that, Wx.

A lot of change from the Wednesday GFS prognostication. The 35 degree low was on the 20th, now it's back to Friday. Such is the forecasting dilemma, that far out.

What is consistent is no appreciable rain and no significant warm up. I shall be eager to see successive reports. I have to look good for the photos, after all.

[srainhoutx]

I picked a much need 3/4 of an inch the past 24 hours. Much better than I expected to see. .

[Andrew]

Got .84 so far up here over the last two days. Been a constant mist/rain over the last couple of days. I am sure the plants that survived the freeze are happy about the change in weather. Warmer and wetter is definitely a welcome sight

[cristina6871]

ugh......I want the cold weather to return.....this warming trend is depressing.

[srainhoutx]

An upper trough will swing past our Region later today. While it appears a weak cap is in place, there is a chance that an isolated storm or two may develop mainly N and NE of Metro Houston on E into Louisiana. After the trough passes and a Pacific front moves by, drier air filters in and hopefully some sunshine break this cloudy and glumly pattern of a day or two. The next disturbance crossing Mexico arrives quickly Sunday evening and may bring a slight chance of showers and a bit stronger front on Monday. A dry NW flow looks to take shape next week with a couple of re in forcing cold fronts offering cool nights and pleasant afternoons throughout the coming work week. Regarding the longer range outlook beyond next week. The telecommunication indices suggest we may well return to a colder regime. the big question is will it be a transient shot of colder air, or be a bit more prolonged? Time will tell but the pattern has been fairly progressive since mid December. That said, we are near the climatological period where our Region is favored for wintry mischief. It will be interesting to see if in fact we see the pattern flip once again to that of a colder pattern near the January 18th time frame and beyond. We typically are not out of the woods, so to speak with wintry weather chances until just after Valentines Day in our part of the world.

01102014 AO 00zgfsensallao.gif

01102014 EPO 00zgfsensallepo.gif

011102014 PNA 00zgfsensallpna.gif

01102014 W B NAO 00zgfsensallwestnao.gif

[Kludge]

A surprising and very welcome 1.55" here yesterday. And after 51.3" in 2013, we're finally saturated. It's so wonderful to see standing water everywhere after the dust bowl of 2011-2012. While we don't necessarily "need" today's 'main event' rainfall marking the frontal passage, I'll never again wishcast the rain away. It should be a fantastic spring.

Meantime, a late January polar vortex phasing with the southern jet over my house would be welcome.