January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[djmike]

Well, our high temp for today was 33 in Beaumont! Temp is already starting to drop slowly.

[TxJohn]

Dewpoint up to 5 degrees.....

[ronyan]

Got to 39 here in Lake Jackson, now the drop will start.

[djmike]

Dewpoint at 5 here in Beaumont as well...

[Texaspirate11]

Feels like 32 at the bay....

[seanatsk]

Nothing related to our weather but Atlanta is supposed to be 5 degrees tonight/tomorrow morning...windchills in the negative 20s....
Imagine if this had taken a more southerly flow and we got it head on....that would've been crazy.

I'm supposed to be working there for a couple weeks on the 19th...Thank God it wasn't this week!

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see the skies clearing just off to my N.

Edit to add: IAH maintained 35F at the 4:00PM reading. That suggests a new record minimum high temperature will be set for IAH for January 6th.

[ronyan]

seanatsk, if what we are seeing on the long range GFS comes to fruition you may be dealing with similar conditions there around the 19th time frame.

[wxman57]

That's a lot of cirrus clouds streaming NE across Texas. Tonight may be overcast, making it not as cold as this morning.

[seanatsk]

seanatsk, if what we are seeing on the long range GFS comes to fruition you may be dealing with similar conditions there around the 19th time frame.

I hope not...

[Andrew]

Pretty good indication of where the ridge is currently setup:

Looks like San Angelo is a good bet for the center of ridging (maybe a little farther south). I don't think we will really see a southern flow until around 3-6am.

[srainhoutx]

It's already clearing out up here in NW Harris County, wxman57. I see blue skies just N of the house looking toward Hockley/Waller County.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SE TX TONIGHT.

ALONG WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPS THE PERSISTENT DECK OF CLOUDS HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW PREDICTED HIGHS THIS AFTN.
AND PER TRENDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...STILL EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS
TO THIN/MOVE OUT TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS
THIS COOLER START TO THE EVENING MAY BE WHAT IS NEEDED TO BREAK A
FEW LOW TEMP RECORDS. (LOOKING AT YOU IAH AND GLS.)

RAPID WARM UP/AIRMASS RECOVERY PROGGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OUT WEST. ONSHORE WINDS SET TO
RETURN LATE TUES AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...STILL LOOKING FOR AN INCREASINGLY W/SWLY FLOW THAT
WILL DRAW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RUNS
HAVE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AFFECTING SE TX LATE WEDS...AND THE NEXT
ONE FRI/SAT. NOT SURE OF HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE
BY WEDS BUT CHANCES ARE THIS WILL NOT BE THE PROBLEM FOR FRI/SAT.
BUT ALL THAT BEING SAID WILL KEEP POPS ABOUT THE SAME FOR WEDS ON
THROUGH SAT (GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST).
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION-
ING OF THE SECOND SYSTEM/UPPER TROF (ECMWF DEEPER TROF/CLOSED LOW
AND GFS A MORE BROAD TROFFING). WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE
OUT WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS. 41

[Andrew]

That's a lot of cirrus clouds streaming NE across Texas. Tonight may be overcast, making it not as cold as this morning.

Yea I agree. I don't see us completely clearing out. That flow from the pacific remains pretty active. Interesting to note both the GFS and NAM show clear conditions all night but I doubt this will be the case. With winds calming down and ridging almost directly overhead it should be interesting to see how temperatures compare to last night.

[Andrew]

It's already clearing out up here in NW Harris County, wxman57. I see blue skies just N of the house looking toward Hockley/Waller County.

Still have a narrow deck of scattered clouds here in College Station. Looks to be clearing some though.

[srainhoutx]

Still have a narrow deck of scattered clouds here in College Station. Looks to be clearing some though.

It's going to be close for CLL. HGX just stated that CLL hit 17F on March 4, 2002 looking back at their data records.

Edit to add: AUS set a daily high minimum of 34F set in 1970.

[TxJohn]

Channel 11 says it WON't clear out...and we may be warmer than forecasted.
Channel 13 says we should clear out after midnight and should reach 21 in Houston. If we clear out before midnight teens may be on deck...if we stay cloudy we should top out at 25 degrees in Houston.


In NW Harris county where I am...im starting to see some breaks in the clouds n some clearing...hopefully this continues.

[Andrew]

Still have a narrow deck of scattered clouds here in College Station. Looks to be clearing some though.

It's going to be close for CLL. HGX just stated that CLL hit 17F on March 4, 2002 looking back at their data records.

Edit to add: AUS set a daily high minimum of 34F set in 1970.

Yea We will begin to get that SW flow before Houston and points east which could limit cooling slightly. Both the GFS and NAM show similar lows in College Station as Houston

[TxJohn]

Dewpoint up to 6 in Houston..it was at 4 earlier and rose to 5 and now 6......

[TexasBreeze]

I don't think it will clear out tonight. I'm with wxman on this one.

[srainhoutx]

Some amazing facts concerning this Arctic Outbreak. The Media has picked up on what we weather geeks have discussed for years...The Polar Vortex. Also 17,000 flights have been cancelled across the United States since this outbreak began. Jet fuel is literally freezing at Chicago O'Hare forcing significant problems for air travel from that major hub for American and United Airlines.