January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Karen]

Just walked outside here in League City it is clear and cold!!!!!!!!!! and windy!!!!!!!!

[TxJohn]

Already in the upper 30s!

[jeff]

Srain, you were talking earlier about the long range forecast models setting up for another cold snap in a couple of weeks. Does it appear to be a similar setup to our current situation. Also, regarding tonight and tomorrow. It does look like moisture drifting in our general direction. Is that actually precip?

There is high level moisture out over MX that is trying to fight its way ENE into the area...but it is fighting a building high pressure ridge over the plains. Surface dewpoints are already in the low 20's over the region...so even if the high level moisture does work into the area....it is way too dry at the surface for anything to fall. Could hold up overnight lows 2-3 degrees tonight...but cold air advection will at the same time be driving very cold air over OK southward into the region all night.

[ronyan]

42.2F here and starting to tank, humidity is holding at 44% so the dew point is already 21F. This is going to be a very dry airmass.

[cisa]

Srain, you were talking earlier about the long range forecast models setting up for another cold snap in a couple of weeks. Does it appear to be a similar setup to our current situation. Also, regarding tonight and tomorrow. It does look like moisture drifting in our general direction. Is that actually precip?

There is high level moisture out over MX that is trying to fight its way ENE into the area...but it is fighting a building high pressure ridge over the plains. Surface dewpoints are already in the low 20's over the region...so even if the high level moisture does work into the area....it is way too dry at the surface for anything to fall. Could hold up overnight lows 2-3 degrees tonight...but cold air advection will at the same time be driving very cold air over OK southward into the region all night.

Thank you Jeff. I always appreciate your comments and have learned a lot from them. I kinda thought the air was too dry, but just curious, and the kid in me was hoping for a few snowflakes. Oh well, it's only January thanks again.

[Texaspirate11]

37 by the bay and windy - hope everyone stays warm!

[Andrew]

Srain, you were talking earlier about the long range forecast models setting up for another cold snap in a couple of weeks. Does it appear to be a similar setup to our current situation. Also, regarding tonight and tomorrow. It does look like moisture drifting in our general direction. Is that actually precip?

There is high level moisture out over MX that is trying to fight its way ENE into the area...but it is fighting a building high pressure ridge over the plains. Surface dewpoints are already in the low 20's over the region...so even if the high level moisture does work into the area....it is way too dry at the surface for anything to fall. Could hold up overnight lows 2-3 degrees tonight...but cold air advection will at the same time be driving very cold air over OK southward into the region all night.

Thank you Jeff. I always appreciate your comments and have learned a lot from them. I kinda thought the air was too dry, but just curious, and the kid in me was hoping for a few snowflakes. Oh well, it's only January thanks again.

To expand on what Jeff said, here is a skew-t diagram from the gfs 00z run that shows the expected sounding for KIAH tomrorow morning at 6z. Notice how the two black lines (temperature and dewpoint) are so far away (especially in the middle of the atmosphere), and only come together at around 300mb. That means there is no saturation in the middle part of the atmosphere. This is a very dry atmosphere. Its not until 300mb that you see saturation and this is due to the noisy jet/pacific flow that is overhead. These clouds should keep temperatures in check and i suspect the NAM is going to be the better model to follow tonight. There is strong cold air advection currently occurring which will drop dew points and temps but the clouds should keep temps slightly in check. There will still be a nice freeze tonight but fortunately I suspect TONIGHT won't be as bad as originally thought. Tomorrow should be interesting to see where dewpoints stand at sunset. The gfs is predicting negative dewpoints which is a good 5-10 degrees colder than the NAM. While we won't have enough time to reach the dewpoint tomorrow night, a lower dewpoint would imply a colder airmass. That could lead to a faster drop in temps and eventually colder lows.

Also another thing I wanted to note is that 2-3 degrees can make a large difference down here. If you have temps that are 2-3 degrees warmer, that will decrease the time period of below freezing temps, decrease the intensity, and could ultimately save plants and pipes. So yes, from a meteorology standpoint clouds can be depressing, but from an economical standpoint it could mean the world.

[cisa]

Thanks Andrew.

[unome]

HGX has a video update http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

http://youtu.be/W6diUyD-FY0

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Damaging advective freeze in progress over the north part of the area currently.

Extremely cold tonight with lows from 13-25 across the region

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for tonight.

Arctic high continues to build southward from the central plains with strong winds having continued all night in the 15-25mph range. 600am wind chills range from an impressive 9 at College Station to 15 at BUSH IAH and 19 at Palacios. 600am temperatures range from 23 at College Station and Huntsville to 27-29 N of US 59 to just above freezing right at the coast.

1040mb arctic high will build deeper into TX today resulting in steadily decreasing winds and gradually clearing skies. Upper level system currently near Baja is attempting to spreading high level moisture across the area and periods of high clouds are possible today into this evening.

Tonight under mainly clear skies, light winds, and extremely low dewpoints a very hard freeze is expected for all locations. Low temperature records from 1912 (College Station) and 1970 (Houston) may be threatened. Expect highs today to only reach the mid to upper 30’s with temperatures quickly falling below freezing at sunset and staying below freezing until late Tuesday morning.

Forecasted lows (Tuesday Morning):
N of HWY 105: 13-17
Conroe Area: 14-16
N of I-10: 17-21
N of US 59: 18-22
Inside Beltway 8: 24-27
N of a line from Victoria to Bay City to Pasadena: 22-28
Coastal beaches (including Galveston Is): 29-32

Temperatures will be at or below freezing for 14-18 hours and at or below 25 for up to 12 hours.

Preparations:

Maximum freeze precautions must be taken for forecasted temperatures of this magnitude including heavily protecting of tropical vegetation and citrus, protection of all exposed outside pipes including sprinkler systems, and sheltering for pets/livestock.

Temperatures below 20 degrees can lead to freezing and bursting of exterior wall/attic pipes in houses…open exterior cabinet doors and keep interior air temperature at or above 70 degrees. If pipes freeze, shut off the water supply to the house from the main shut off and wait for pipes to thaw to determine if they have broken…do not attempt to thaw pipes…this can at times cause more damage.

End of the Week:

Large arctic high will move eastward with onshore winds returning to the area Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will come roaring back into the region Wednesday with rain chances likely from late Wednesday into next weekend as the flow aloft becomes SW and several upper level disturbances move across the region. Widespread rainfall looks likely, but hard to time disturbances make it difficult to pin point the greatest potential period. Could see 1-2 inches of rainfall by the weekend across the region.

[skidog40]

its snowing in corpus

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
719 AM CST MON JAN 06 2014

...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS TIED AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM AIRPORT THIS MORNING. IT TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 22
DEGREES SET IN 1972.

[srainhoutx]

its snowing in corpus

I see no reports of any precip reaching the ground anywhere in Texas this morning at this hour.

[srainhoutx]

ERCOT experienced about a 30 minute spike in electricity usage around 7:00AM and a Level 2 Caution was activated. Currently ERCOT is at Level 1 as of 7:53 AM, but conservation is advised with even lower temperatures expected tomorrow morning.

[ronyan]

Got down to 29.5F on my station this morning. A little warmer than expected but only by a degree, low forecast was 28F. Tonight I may be seeing that reading around midnight with very slow warming to around 40 today and that arctic high over us.

[skidog40]

i was just wondering, i see blue in corpus on radar, also see one just pop up at league city?

[srainhoutx]

i was just wondering, i see blue in corpus on radar, also see one just pop up at league city?

It may well be snowing above 7000 to 20,000 feet, but it is evaporating well before reaching the lower levels. This is known as virga. Dewpoints are in low teens (DW Hooks currently at 13) could never support moisture reaching the ground.

[Portastorm]

We bottomed out at 20 degrees in my 'hood in SW Austin. NWS forecasted low was 24 degrees at Camp Mabry (Mabry hit 22) with 22 degrees at the airport (they hit this exactly).

[djmike]

FWIW, NWS does mention the possibility of light snow down in the Rio Grand Valley tonight.

snowrio.PNG (181.97 KiB) Viewed 4000 times

[srainhoutx]

That secondary shot of much colder Arctic air we have been mentioning is now settling S into Texas. A 1040mb Arctic High located in Texas to something we do not see very often.