September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[daywalker2k2]

Best picture ever to feel how I am feeling!! Guess time to get those sprinklers running!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has shifted N and is now a tad N of Tampico. Also the GFS ensemble members are again shifting to a more N solution.

Hour 144:

09112013 12Z GFS Ensemble members f144.gif

Hour 156:

09112013 12Z GFS Ensemble Members f156.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ensemble mean (Mean Sea Level Pressure) have also shifted a tad N and have a bit more spread suggesting a further N motion may be possible. Also the 500mb ensemble mean suggests a weakness or a bit of an E shift in the Upper Ridge next week as well.

MSLP:

09112013 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean MSLP_North32America_96.gif

500mb Upper Air:

09112013 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_120.gif

[Kludge]

Someone with access please let us know what the friendlier (at least yesterday) 18Z's say when they come out. I need some good news.

[Rip76]

[srainhoutx]

Someone with access please let us know what the friendlier (at least yesterday) 18Z's say when they come out. I need some good news.

Further N and offshore of Tuxpan, Kludge...

09112013 18Z GFS gfs_wnatl_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif

09112013 18Z GFS gfs_wnatl_105_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone formation likely over the Bay of Campeche over the next few days.

Area of low pressure previously over the Yucatan appears to be near the coast this morning or possibly over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Deep convection has developed in the past few hours near where the broad circulation may lie this morning and it is likely a tropical depression will form later today or on Friday.

The Bay of Campeche is notorious for slow moving tropical systems this time of year and 93L looks to be another candidate. Steering currents are already weak and expected to weaken further resulting in a very slow WNW motion over the next several days. In fact some of the global forecast models show the system looping around over the Bay of Campeche for the next 3-5 days before finally moving inland over MX between Tampico and Brownsville next week. It would appear the ridging over the southern plains and TX will not break down as quick as previously advertised and this reduces the risk of the system making as much northward progress as what was suggested on Tuesday. Guidance for the past 24 hours has been fairly consistent in keeping any tropical system well to our south. The Bay of Campeche does not like to give up its tropical systems and many times they can linger for days in this region usually before moving inland over Mexico. There also may be some interaction with the current eastern Pacific tropical system developing to the SW of 93L.

The intensity forecast will depend on how long the system remains over the warm waters (85-87 degrees). Upper level conditions are expected to be favorable and the terrain and curvature of the Bay of Campeche helps to spin tropical systems up sometimes rapidly when all else is favorable. The GFS shows a 983mb hurricane moving toward the MX coast between Tampico and Brownsville early next week and even the EURO has increased its intensity over the past few runs. One potential drawback with a very slow motion could be the upwelling of colder water from below the sea surface…which if 93L sat in the same place long enough could happen and prevent intensification and even induce weakening.

As far as impacts to TX go, as long as the system remains as far south as predicted main impacts will be increased coastal tides and wave action. Rain chances may increase toward the early to mid part of next week especially from Matagorda Bay southward as the tropical system nears the coast and northern fringe rain bands spread NW into S TX and the coastal bend. Not overly confident on how much rainfall the mid and upper TX coast will see with high pressure slowly breaking down and only slowly allowing moisture to reach into these areas.

As for tides and seas, there has been no significant changes with tides currently running about .5 of a foot above normal and expected to gradually increase to around 1-2 ft above normal over the weekend. Larger wave action from an increasing pressure gradient will also help to deliver more water to the coast and at times of high tide Gulf beaches could be inundated with water up to the dine bases. Do not see a significant coastal flood threat with these current forecasted tide levels.

[srainhoutx]

Sabancuy Radar in the Mexico State of Campeche suggests a surface low is developing just offshore to the WSW of the City of Campeche moving WNW.

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z HWRF Hurricane Guidance suggests we may see Hurricane Ingrid making landfall just N of Tampico and then sliding N to NE along the Texas Coast to near Seadrift/Aransas Pass as a tropical storm just inland along the Coastal Plain of South Texas.

09122013 06Z HWRF slp15.png

09122013 06Z HWRF slp18.png

09122013 06Z HWRF slp21.png

[Rip76]

What a nice rainfall run for Texas if that verified.

[srainhoutx]

A very full RECON schedule ahead for what may be Ingrid. Missions include C-130, P-3, G-IV and the Global Hawk:

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EDT THU 12 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-103

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. DEVELOPING SYSTEM (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT 0NE --NOAA 49--          FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 43--
       A. 13/1600Z                     A. 13/2100Z
       B. NOAA9 0310A CYCLONE          B. NOAA3 0410A CYCLONE
       C. 13/1300Z                     C. 13/1800Z
       D. 20.0N 94.5W                  D. 20.0N 94.5W
       E. NA                           E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT          F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 72--        FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
       A. 14/0000Z                     A. 14/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0510A CYCLONE          B. NOAA2 0610A CYCLONE
       C. 13/2100Z                     C. 14/0600Z
       D. 20.0N 94.5W                  D. 20.0N 94.5W
       E. 13/2300Z TO 14/0300Z         E. 14/0830Z TO 14/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT             F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE --TEAL 73--
       A. 14/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0710A CYCLONE
       C. 14/0900Z
       D. 20.4N 94.5W
       E. 14/1130Z TO 14/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
       B. P-3 FLIGHTS AT 14/1800Z AND 15/0600Z 
       C. A G-IV FLIGHT AT 14/1300Z

    3. REMARKS:
       A. GLOBAL HAWK 872(55-65 KFT) MISSION DEPARTING AT 13/1100Z
          INTO THIS SYSTEM...RELEASING 66 DROPSONDES.
       B. ER-2 (60-65 KFT) AND DC-8 (1-35 KFT) MISSIONS DEPARTING 
          AT 13/1330Z INTO THIS SYSTEM. 

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[kayci]

Yall, do you FOREsee this thing walking up the coast?

[kayci]

Oh, and PS.... Steve & Doug, thanx for all your help with my technical difficulties!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro trend a tad further N than the 00Z output suggesting landfall N of Tampico, but S of Matamoros. I suspect advisories will start at 4:00 PM with a bit of a shift N with the 18Z tracks..

[Rip76]

Driving to Ft. Worth, so I haven't checked.

Is Recon there yet?

[Texas Pirate]

I gotta believe we'll get something out of this system.

I'm headed to Minneapolis to visit son, where their drought is worsening (maybe I should stay away from states?)
BUT their mets say next week they'll get good rains from the GOM...so first stop, Texas...then maybe good rains to another
drought riddled state....lucky I guess.

[srainhoutx]

Driving to Ft. Worth, so I haven't checked.

Is Recon there yet?

Problem with the first aircraft. Second one enroute over the Gulf.

[Portastorm]

Indeed Ed, indeed. May the FIM run verify. Happiness for our lawns and plants.

[Kludge]

Looking at the recon I'm thinking this may jump straight to Ingrid at 5:00.