August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[skidog40]

im not buying forecast , "this is not tropical" yet I see banding to the north.

[rnmm]

There sure doesn't seem to be much rain with this system, or maybe it is because I am not looking at the radar right?

[Belmer]

well pirate, i agree and disagree. nws might be highly regarded,but i can recall way too many wrong and busted forecasts from them. feb 2011 was only one. i remember ,,it was either march or april 2009 and the "forecast" from the houston nws that day was only a 20% chance of a widely scattered shower. the consensus was that we would not see much. but,for some reason, big,large thunderstorms developed and many areas received flooding rains i believe it was on a saturday because i had to drive through high water on the feeder road of beltway 8 in pasadena. and i was puzzeled because i had watched ktrk and khou that morning and saw both their weather forecasts,and i read the nws forecast. no one saw what occured. i ask,how is that possible. less than 12 hours before the flooding storms occured? anyone want to take a stab at that?

AZ, it was April 2009. I remember that very clearly to this day. And it was on a Friday night. I remember watching Franks 4pm weather and he only had a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the evening. Well, that evening I went to Prom with a friend down in Galveston. I left home (Pasadena) around 5pm and remember seeing a lightning show going down 45S. Well, I left Galveston around 10pm that Friday night (couldn't stay the night till Saturday) and I remember I was in the Friendswood area going 45N when I just felt like I was under a waterfall. It has by far to this day been the worse storm I have ever driven in. 45 was literally flooding because it was raining so hard, water couldn't even drain off the freeway. There were like 1-3 cars around me at the time, and I was probably going less than 5mph and I couldn't see anything. I quickly pulled over and got off 45 and under a shell gas station to only find the feeder and parking lot was flooded. I made another risky attemp to get back on the freeway with my emergency lights on and in the right hand lane till I got back to Pasadena. Rain slacked off, figured Pasadena didn't get much. Boy was I wrong. Got off the Beltway and bayous, ditches, out of there banks, major streets underwater (Spencer Hwy, Fairmont). Took me forever to get home as I had to make detours, but once I did, I looked at radar loop, and saw a thunderstorm cell popped up and just sat still over Pasadena, Friendswood, La Porte area for like 2 hours. I remember saying to myself, "well, this is the 30% Frank was talking about".

Point of the story, I don't remember what ch. 11 or ch. 13 called for, but Franks 30% was still accurate. He called for a 30% of isolated thunderstorms. You can't predict where they will develop, and you certainly can't predict how long that storm will sit over an area. But hence, the word "isolated".

[Kludge]

So when did this board get off into such annoying and off-topic mode...??

Oh wait... I know : Thu Jun 06 2013, 9:56 AM

Everyone please engage you AZ filter, and let's watch the wave come ashore.

[cperk]

Yeah enough of this already

[tireman4]

We have weather coming our way. I hope for all we get some precipitation out of this. Let us just keep the topic to the here and now..(August 2013). Thanks.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning....

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FCST HAS BEEN LEFT LARGELY UNCHANGED. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
MOVING INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES FROM THE
EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF THE
REGION THRU THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-10. DID KNOCK
POPS DOWN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COMPETITION FROM
UPPER RIDGE IS MORE PRONOUNCED. WE`LL PROBABLY SEE A BREAK IN MOST
PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. COVERAGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND INLAND INTO THE
SW HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING THE BEST COVERAGE
IN THE COUNTIES SW/W OF THE METRO AREA (THAT NEED THE RAINFALL THE
MOST).

CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ON TUE/WED AS MOISTURE AXIS
GRADUALLY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION. BY LATE WED & THURS RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO NIL AS PW`S DROP AND UPPER RIDGE REALLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERHEAD. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEK. 47

[Texas Pirate]

Wow our NWS was correct - we are getting RAIN!

Salud! - We are smelling smoke down here by the bay - if you are in this area
there is a wildfire going on....East Galveston Bay area.

Enjoy your rainy Sunday and Texan game.

[jcarr]

"Robert"..if you want to change the way weather is predicted I suggest you become a meteorologist and create a better "system".
I am sure the folks at the NWC would LOVE to listen.


Weather is like football.

You know what players you have and how they usually perform...you know their history...BUT
you cannot predict with certainty how they will perform on any given day due to conditions
beyond what is known..ie; illness, injury, frame of mind, slippery field etc etc.

So with that I say keep on topic...

and Go Texans!

[Rip76]

Well that was depressing from HGX...
Hopefully this area of weather moves about as fast as it has from Miss to here.

[tireman4]

I will say this on the subject. I am not a fan of August nor Summer here. That has been well documented. This is, however, August and Summer. We will have high pressure ridges that will move in and out of the area. It happens. Now, that being said, this is Summer's last grasp. The fronts will come in due time. I would think that climo will hold out ( my opinion) and Fall will usher in cooler and drier air. Please let us respect the meteorologists, both on air and behind the scenes. Those men and women are doing a great job. They have forgotten more than I will ever know. Be patient all, the rain will get here.

[kayci]

wait! What's that wet stuff falling from the sky?????

[Rip76]

Awesome tropical cloud decks and atmosphere though.

[robertscottlazar]

interesting radar offshore huh guys?

[SusieinLP]

Getting breezy here but no rain yet. Nice cloud cover keeping it cooler so that is one good thing

[Rip76]

Something going on just offshore?

[srainhoutx]

Something going on just offshore?

That is a meso low. Surface pressures remain rather high offshore, so there is little in the way of some kind of surface low developing S of the Sabine River. The trough axis has moved just onshore from Matagorda to Lake Charles and we here in NW Harris County are getting an easterly wind ~vs~ a N to NE flow we saw yesterday. Enjoy the rain for those that get it!

[Rip76]

Close to cranking up the sprinklers...

[tjelliot]

I would like to add one thing to j Carr discussion about all the factors that affect our weather. One thing that has been ignored by all the posters--namely the statistics of "probability".

While it is true that the probability of getting a "heads" is 50%, everyone knows that you can get a run of 6 or8 or 10 or more "heads" in a row, is the probability wrong? No! Probability deals with the chance of something happening "in the LONG" run. Statistician's are talking about 1000’s of flips of a coin or more, not just 50 flips out of a 100. I know that even the computers that make predictions don't have enough long run data to make more accurate predictions based on all the variability of conditions in our area. I think it's amazing that anyone is willing to make a forecast-based on the shortness of our past statistics. So if the forecast is 30% chance of rain then, remember, that 30% is in the LONG run! It might not happen at all. There would be no casinos if 30% meant you would always win.

I love this forum because even though the TV weathermen make wrong forecasts, from them at least we get some idea of what "might" happen. Then I come to the forum and LEARN about what is behind the forecast. The forum allows me to follow some of the science of weather-and it doesn't cost me a dime.

Thanks to all of you PRO mets for putting up with us "not too smart" ones that are listening, commenting and asking questions.

[tireman4]

Close to cranking up the sprinklers...

Not yet. Do not give in just yet.