August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[Rip76]

Srain, thanks
I didn't know if it was dry air, or a reflection.

I saw those few storm clouds just evaporate up there.

[srainhoutx]

Srain, thanks
I didn't know if it was dry air, or a reflection.

I saw those few storm clouds just evaporate up there.

Here is the 1620Z Surface Analysis so everyone can see where the surface features are located.

[kayci]

Oh BATS! no rain for Texas City I take it....

[srainhoutx]

2:00 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook concerning the Northern/NW Gulf disturbance:

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Fairly strong tropical wave across the central Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon.

Visible satellite images show a tropical wave axis from near SE LA SSW across the Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche. There are two features along this wave axis of note.

The first feature is in the northern Gulf of Mexico just off the SE LA coast and appears to be a small concentrated mid level circulation which has supported widespread thunderstorm development off the LA and MS coast over the past 24-36 hours. Numerous coastal and northern Gulf surface observations do not indicate any surface low pressure in this region and any tropical development seems remote at the moment.

The second feature on the southern end of the wave axis is over the southern Yucatan Peninsula and appears that a low level circulation has in fact developed in this region. This low is moving toward the WNW and may briefly enter the southern Bay of Campeche on Sunday. Upper level conditions are favorable for additional development if the system can reach the warm waters. Any development in this region would be steered to the WNW and into MX.

The tropical wave axis should reach the TX coast over the next 24 hours. Currently the area lies on the western and subsident side of the wave axis which is resulting in little to no storm development currently. Over the next 24 hours the wave axis will move inland along with a slug of deep tropical moisture (PWS increasing to near 2.2 inches along the coast). There looks to be a fairly strong rainfall gradient setup across the region with the best chances and max amounts located near the coast and offshore with lesser amounts inland. Tropical air masses and the history of what has happened the last few nights to our east support coastal convective complexes in the early morning hours which focus the rainfall offshore or near the coast and have trouble sometimes moving inland. A review of the Slidell rainfall totals from this morning clearly show this thinking with maximum amounts out over the nearshore Gulf waters (2-4 inches) and generally less than an inch from the coast inland. A couple of the meso models are a little more aggressive in bringing the storms and heavier rainfall further inland. With this said, rainfall amounts from US 59 to the coast will likely average .5-1.5 inches over the next 48 hours with a few isolated amounts up to 3 inches. Between US 59 and HWY 105 amounts of .25 to 1.0 inch will be possible and north of HWY 105 amounts generally less than .50 of an inch. Think the best rain chances will be early Monday morning when favorable surface speed convergence on the eastern flank of the tropical wave axis initiates deep convection over the NW Gulf waters and possibly the coastal counties.

Potential is there for some quick heavy rainfall with such an incoming tropical air mass, just not overly confident how much makes it onshore.

[robertscottlazar]

lets see today,,, the forecast was for a 30% chance of "scattered" showers. looking at the satellite and radar i would say that 30% forecast figure is again wrong. im seeing no more than a 1-5% coverage. but you guys will come back and tell me,well, there was a 70% chance that it wont rain at all. well,i say its not 70% more like 95% chance of no rain. i understand thd %'s and numbers. what i am saying is the forecasted numbers have not been accurate.
the earlier in the week 40% forecasted rain chances didnt materialize. from looking at the radar earlier in the week, the forecasted chances should have been no more than 10-20%.

[jeff]

lets see today,,, the forecast was for a 30% chance of "scattered" showers. looking at the satellite and radar i would say that 30% forecast figure is again wrong. im seeing no more than a 1-5% coverage. but you guys will come back and tell me,well, there was a 70% chance that it wont rain at all. well,i say its not 70% more like 95% chance of no rain. i understand thd %'s and numbers. what i am saying is the forecasted numbers have not been accurate.
the earlier in the week 40% forecasted rain chances didnt materialize. from looking at the radar earlier in the week, the forecasted chances should have been no more than 10-20%.

NWS forecasted rain chances for today at 423am this morning were 20% for both IAH and CLL and 30% for GLS. Coverage today has been mainly along a 85H convergent boundary from Lake Livingston to Columbus. LCH radar shows western edge of deep tropical moisture nearing the Sabine along with decreasing subsidence on the west side of the tropical wave axis.

Regardless of current high forecasted rain chances over the next 48 hours I would be wary of the potential for offshore activity to rob inland areas of decent rainfall. It has happened the last two days over S LA and S MS where Gulf MCS activity has not penetrated much inland.

[txflagwaver]

Oh good lord AZ..READ YOUR OWN POST! "the forecast was for a 30% chance of "scattered" showers". It does not mean 30% of the area will get rain. it means there 30% chance that a rain cloud will drop rain somewhere..hence the word "scattered". So basically, the prediction was correct...there were scattered showers..there was rain falling from the clouds scattered around the area.

[unome]

on the user control panel of this board is a feature by which you can "manage foes" & not even have to see a post they make when you are logged in - y'all are letting the trolls control this board by even responding to them and that's a shame - it is a great board with many great posters who come here for weather & not drama

stepping off soap box

[txflagwaver]

on the user control panel of this board is a feature by which you can "manage foes" & not even have to see a post they make when you are logged in - y'all are letting the trolls control this board by even responding to them and that's a shame - it is a great board with many great posters who come here for weather & not drama

stepping off soap box

1) I hardly think 1 troll/member is controlling the board
2) I am explaining to him so maybe he will understand.
3) On the user control panel of this board is a feature by which you can "manage foes" & not even have to see a post they make when you are logged in

[Rip76]

Quick question.
If something spins up and comes off the Yuc. tonight, would it pull the gulf moisture away from us?

Or is it too far south.

[srainhoutx]

Quick question.
If something spins up and comes off the Yuc. tonight, would it pull the gulf moisture away from us?

Or is it too far south.

It is a rather complex and complicated setup. Currently there are no less than 3 tropical wave axis via surface analysis. One across the Northern/NW Gulf, a second just offshore of the Mexico Gulf Coast and a third associated with 95L. What we are seeing is the influence of a Kelvin Wave and a vigorous MJO pulse spreading E bound across the Western Gulf and Western Caribbean. It is typical to see an offshore flow ahead of any developing cyclone to our SE. What we will need to monitor tomorrow is just how all these feature combine and just how far N or inland we can get the moisture associated with these features to progress. What is somewhat interesting is just how disturbed the entire Western Gulf is becoming and that tends to get my attention in late August.

[robertscottlazar]

unome, respectfully,
since when is it trolling when it is simply asking questions and making points about %'s and forecasts?
jasons also made a post in support of my viewpoint. the "wetter" pattern hasnt materialized .
and jeff, the 30% number i mentioned was what was being broadcast by khou last night. as well as by david paul on 92.1 fm. i dont even bother with the nws as their forecasting is inaccurate.

[robertscottlazar]

i lost all my faith in the nws forecasts back in feb 2011 . they busted that snow forecast and were very wrong. i remember the nws stating anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow? but we ended getting not one flake. all we got was freezing rain. the reason for the forecast bust is the models somehow didnt know there was a layer of warmer air above the ground. how could the models that are so highly regarded be so wrong less than 24 hours from an event? if i am a troll for raising questions so be it. i am being respectful.

[Texas Pirate]

SOme models aren't highly regarded, but our Houston NWS is.

Mistakes can be made - its not an exact science. But in defense of our NWS, they do a yeomans job.
They do the best they can with the models that are constantly one upping each other and once in a while, get it right. IMHO

[jeff]

i lost all my faith in the nws forecasts back in feb 2011 . they busted that snow forecast and were very wrong. i remember the nws stating anywhere from 2-4 inches of snow? but we ended getting not one flake. all we got was freezing rain. the reason for the forecast bust is the models somehow didnt know there was a layer of warmer air above the ground. how could the models that are so highly regarded be so wrong less than 24 hours from an event? if i am a troll for raising questions so be it. i am being respectful.

I will agree with you on the Feb 2011 event...it was a P-type bust. Forecasting P-type is extremely difficult regardless of models or not as things can and will change and only a degree or two can make the difference between ZR and SN or RA.

Sometimes...not all the time...what you see on TV and what the NWS puts out for % can be different...but usually the TV guys don't trend too far away from the NWS. There has to be some level of consistency not only between networks but also with the NWS. It is rare when you see 1 station much more than 10% off the others.

[Texas Pirate]

Okay I guess we can nitpick all their mistakes - but overall, they truly are under the gun (and radar) and do a great job. SE TX is not an easy area to forecast - look at the topography they are dealing with. GOM to the East/ lots and lots of Texas to the West.

I hear ya, there is nothing more frustrating than being stuck on 45 or 59 in the middle of torrential rain when the forecast said 20%, but I find that less than more of the case in their predictions.

This is why YOU need to learn all you can about weather so you can be smarter than they.

[djmike]

May or may not have anything to do with the disturbance headed our way, but just noticed some gusty breezes coming from the east here in the Beaumont area. Had the feel of "something" is headed our way!

[jeff]

Pretty good flare up SE of Cameron, LA this evening...with vort moving W toward GLS Bay.

[jeff]

00Z HRRR might have the right idea, but its vort energy looks slightly too far south per LCH radar trends. Anyhow if develops stuff along the coast and sends it inland to about US 59...lots of development shown off the LA coast...still think Monday AM will be the best shot.