August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[txflagwaver]

http://isatexas.com/images/pdf_files/Co ... 911web.pdf

[robertscottlazar]

After reading that post, I want to move back to Florida now.

My rainfall total so far this year is 15.59"

If I recall correctly, the drought of 2011 was unique in several ways. There were tree ring records that showed there was nothing so severe in over 1,000+ years (1300 IIRC). Trees that had lived hundreds of years, through the prolonged droughts of the 20/30' and 50's, finally succumbed to the heat & lack of rain in 2011. I believe this was unprecedented and could indicate maybe our climate is indeed changing (whether natural or not is another debate; but climate does and will continue to change).

2011 was sad and I was hoping to never see it again. This year is indeed better than that, but tree stress is a cumulative affect, just like heat stress is for humans. They were already stressed from years of excessive heat and dry weather before 2011. This resulted in pine bark beetle outbreaks in late summer. Some areas up here in the piney woods already had 'dead zones' of trees in the years leading-up to 2011. The train tracks along the Hardy Toll road used to have a wall of beautiful pine trees blocking the view; it was wiped-out by beetles in 2009-2010. Then 2011 hit with the tree apocalypse. Last year helped, but they never fully recovered; they are still in a very fragile state.

That's why this year, we started seeing some pines already turn to toast in June. It doesn't have to be as bad as 2011 to cause another big tree loss because the trees are barely holding-on as it is. They really cannot take much more of this.

I think I mentioned a few weeks ago this ancient pine on the corner lot was looking bad - I have taken many sunset shots with that pine as a backdrop. It leaned slightly and there was something unique about its short needles and tall, lanky trunk.

On Thursday, the HOA cut it down. All that's left there now is a giant stump.

i agree with mr jasons. the climate,or whatever you call it has changed. the tree ring thing he mentioned is true. 2011 was worse than anything texas has ever seen before. 1,000 years guys and 2011 did the trees in. the climate has changed. tree ring evidence doesnt lie.
as for the capping, the capping is also more of a problem now than it was 15 years ago. we just cant get the pop up storms like we used to....for whatever reason the capping is more of a problem,thats a fact. today forexample, its 90 degrees F and dewpoints in the 70s, the atmosphere should be boiling over with storms forming just due to the intense heat and high moisture content in the air. but there is nothing.
and as for 2011, it was the hottest driest hell hole ive ever felt in north america. and i have lived everywhere from nevada to quebec canada and nothing as hot or dry as this crap.

[Ptarmigan]

After reading that post, I want to move back to Florida now.

My rainfall total so far this year is 15.59"

If I recall correctly, the drought of 2011 was unique in several ways. There were tree ring records that showed there was nothing so severe in over 1,000+ years (1300 IIRC). Trees that had lived hundreds of years, through the prolonged droughts of the 20/30' and 50's, finally succumbed to the heat & lack of rain in 2011. I believe this was unprecedented and could indicate maybe our climate is indeed changing (whether natural or not is another debate; but climate does and will continue to change).

2011 was sad and I was hoping to never see it again. This year is indeed better than that, but tree stress is a cumulative affect, just like heat stress is for humans. They were already stressed from years of excessive heat and dry weather before 2011. This resulted in pine bark beetle outbreaks in late summer. Some areas up here in the piney woods already had 'dead zones' of trees in the years leading-up to 2011. The train tracks along the Hardy Toll road used to have a wall of beautiful pine trees blocking the view; it was wiped-out by beetles in 2009-2010. Then 2011 hit with the tree apocalypse. Last year helped, but they never fully recovered; they are still in a very fragile state.

That's why this year, we started seeing some pines already turn to toast in June. It doesn't have to be as bad as 2011 to cause another big tree loss because the trees are barely holding-on as it is. They really cannot take much more of this.

I think I mentioned a few weeks ago this ancient pine on the corner lot was looking bad - I have taken many sunset shots with that pine as a backdrop. It leaned slightly and there was something unique about its short needles and tall, lanky trunk.

On Thursday, the HOA cut it down. All that's left there now is a giant stump.

2011 Drought was truly an outlier from a statistical standpoint. 1789 and 1917 are comparable to 2011. The 1950s drought was more prolonged, but since 2011 was so severe, it is equivalent to multiple 1950s drought. Way more trees were killed in 2011 Drought than Hurricane Ike in 2008. Droughts kill more trees and plants than hurricanes do. They also cause rivers and lakes to dry up. The 1930s Dust Bowl exacerbated the Great Depression. The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1917-1918 is also attributed to drought in America and India.

[jasons2k]

One side effect of the tree loss is stands of trees are being replaced by the invasive chinese tallow tree. They take over quickly and have virtually replaced/eradicated the coastal prairie - you will notice this along I-45 in Galveston & 288 in Brazoria Counties. Those low 15-20 ft tall trees with aspen-like leaves are not native. They have spread inland and all along the I-10 corridor to Florida. They used to be sold in nurseries, but are now considered a pest:

http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/re ... w-tree.xml

[srainhoutx]

One side effect of the tree loss is stands of trees are being replaced by the invasive chinese tallow tree. They take over quickly and have virtually replaced/eradicated the coastal prairie - you will notice this along I-45 in Galveston & 288 in Brazoria Counties. Those low 15-20 ft tall trees with aspen-like leaves are not native. They have spread inland and all along the I-10 corridor to Florida. They used to be sold in nurseries, but are now considered a pest:

http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/re ... w-tree.xml

Much like the non native Australian Pines have taken over S Florida and the Florida Keys.

[texoz]

Just noticed a slight chance of rain (20%) for next Sunday from the ATX site. What's the trigger for that?

[Texas Pirate]

I'm going to put up Christmas decorations, just to get me thru August.
And the sad thing is, I truly love summer, but I enjoy breathing too when I go outside.
Stifling.

Dang....whats that famous saying "I'd rather live in Hell and rent out Texas in the summer"
Smart person who said that.

[wxman57]

Had a nice 5-hr bike ride from Westbury (south of Meyerland) up through the Heights to Beck's Prime for lunch last Saturday. 50 miles round trip. While I didn't find the temperature too hot, I couldn't help noticing that with all the clouds in the sky, not a single one ever passed in front of the sun the last 15 miles of the ride. Currently, the temperature is only 90 degrees. Back in 2011 the temperature was flirting with 100 by noon.

My neighbors never took down their Christmas lights...

[tireman4]

I wonder if September will bring cooler than normal temperatures...hummmm

[Texas Pirate]

Had a nice 5-hr bike ride from Westbury (south of Meyerland) up through the Heights to Beck's Prime for lunch last Saturday. 50 miles round trip. While I didn't find the temperature too hot, I couldn't help noticing that with all the clouds in the sky, not a single one ever passed in front of the sun the last 15 miles of the ride. Currently, the temperature is only 90 degrees. Back in 2011 the temperature was flirting with 100 by noon.

My neighbors never took down their Christmas lights...

Rode my bike early this morning around the bay area.
I peddled fast so I could create some kind of breeze...
My bike kept wanting to plunge into the water...
I like your neighbors.

And BTW: I complain in the winter due to the "cold" temps.
I guess we're never really happy people.

[Ptarmigan]

Had a nice 5-hr bike ride from Westbury (south of Meyerland) up through the Heights to Beck's Prime for lunch last Saturday. 50 miles round trip. While I didn't find the temperature too hot, I couldn't help noticing that with all the clouds in the sky, not a single one ever passed in front of the sun the last 15 miles of the ride. Currently, the temperature is only 90 degrees. Back in 2011 the temperature was flirting with 100 by noon.

My neighbors never took down their Christmas lights...

2011 was drier, which means lower humidity. It allowed the air to warm up quicker.

[jeff]

The warmer temperatures of 2011 tended to have more to do with the parched ground than the dewpoint/RH. Dry grounds result in fast warm ups and much warmer temperatures. Just enough rain this spring and summer to keep the temperatures in some what of a check....but as the ground continues to dry more frequent 100's will be possible.

Another and at times bigger warm up of air temperatures in the summer is when winds are out of the W or NW and hold the seabreeze at the coast. That is when it can get really hot (105+) across Houston.

[Texas Pirate]

ONCE heard that September 24th is generally our closing window on canes here.
Although there have been storms after that in past years, it looks like this might be
the case this year.

I am just hoping for some good rain without a name...

[srainhoutx]

It was bit bumpy flying into S Florida yesterday afternoon with that upper low spinning over the mainland. One cool feature during my flight from IAH to FLL was being able to listen to ATC (Air Traffic Control) the entire trip and listening to MIA getting a ground stop and the 'ballet' that Miami ATC did in directing a holding pattern of inbound aircraft into Miami. Heavy storms developed across S Florida and along the Keys Island chain yesterday, so the plants had a good drink of water and washed out that SAL.

[Kludge]

HELL DEATH low

Sigh. If only it were a low sitting on top of us. Like that elephant in that OPD drug commercial on top of that guy's chest.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from a breezy and tropical showery Florida Keys. The upper low currently over the Bahamas looks to bring a couple of days of showers and storms and perhaps some tropical funnels the next two days along the cloud lines that form across the Keys Island chain.





Morning e-mail from Jeff:


Large upper level high pressure system responsible for the hot and dry weather will slowly shift northward allowing better Gulf moisture to move into the area.

Morning upper air analysis shows a sprawling upper level high pressure system centered over SW/SC LA with the western extent of the high ridging westward into central TX. Surface high pressure is also in place across the northern Gulf which has allowed for winds out of the SW for the past several days. The combination of SW winds (hot air flow off land instead of the “cooler” Gulf) and upper level subsidence has resulted in hot afternoon temperatures across the region (97-103). That same subsidence or sinking air aloft has not only resulted in no rainfall, but almost no cloud formation during the afternoon hours. Afternoon heat index values have been ranging from 105-110 and the heat advisory issued on Sunday remains in effect through this evening and likely will be issued for Friday. We must have heat index values fall below 105 for the advisory to be dropped…remember heat stress is cumulative

Pattern change starts on Friday as a weak tropical wave currently over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico moves west toward the TX coast as the upper level high shifts northward. The shifting of the high will reduce the subsidence over the region and the tropical wave will bring moisture and lift. PWS are expected to increase to nearly 2.0 inches by Saturday and this should at least support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along the seabreeze boundary. Ridge may still be too much of an influence over our northern counties and suspect the best rain chances will be south of I-10. GFS guidance is showing over 40% rain chances for Saturday and 30-40% seems reasonable.

After Saturday attention then turns to the upper level low currently over the Bahamas. This feature will come under the steering flow of the upper level high over the next few days and move westward on the heels of the tropical wave. This feature should be located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by late in the weekend. Global models are in good agreement on this feature moving generally west to WSW into the Mexican coast next week. Moisture should once again increase over TX, but the track of this system and the possibility of the ridge building back southward again suggest the best moisture may be shunted south of the area.

Will continue with 30% rain chances on Sunday as moisture from the first tropical wave lingers and then drop rain chances back to 20% for Monday and Tuesday. Upper level flow becomes increasingly northwesterly next week which should support lower afternoon highs (mid 90’s) but generally dry conditions except for maybe an isolated seabreeze storm.  

Note: hazy dusty conditions currently in place are a result of a large plume of African dust that exited the west coast of Africa. This dust is found in the upper level steering flow and is dropping toward the surface in the overngiht hours. The dust did have an impact on air quialty conditions on Wednesday and suspect a similar impact today with conditions ranging from moderate issues to unheathly for sensative groups during the afternoon hours. Dust should progress westward and be dispresed by the influx of deeper moisture starting later Friday.

 

 

[texoz]

Would like to hear thoughts on the last 6 summers in C. Texas.

Since records have been kept (150+ years), the average number of 100 degrees days is 12 per summer. We're on track to average 50 days of 100 degrees or hotter over this 6 year period, 2008-2013.

Thankfully, we've had some rain this spring & summer, but I'm getting a little concerned that this heat isn't a short term pattern.

[jeff]

Would like to hear thoughts on the last 6 summers in C. Texas.

Since records have been kept (150+ years), the average number of 100 degrees days is 12 per summer. We're on track to average 50 days of 100 degrees or hotter over this 6 year period, 2008-2013.

Thankfully, we've had some rain this spring & summer, but I'm getting a little concerned that this heat isn't a short term pattern.

Dry grounds and heat go hand in hand....

[texoz]

Would like to hear thoughts on the last 6 summers in C. Texas.

Since records have been kept (150+ years), the average number of 100 degrees days is 12 per summer. We're on track to average 50 days of 100 degrees or hotter over this 6 year period, 2008-2013.

Thankfully, we've had some rain this spring & summer, but I'm getting a little concerned that this heat isn't a short term pattern.

Dry grounds and heat go hand in hand....

Understand, which makes me wonder about this summer (and looking back at 2010). Both summers had average rains in between May-July, yet both we're either double (2010) or possibly triple (2013) the long term norm of 100 degree days.

[jasons2k]

Well at least one nice pic and radar shot today, from the Conch Republic

Hotlinks still a big doughnut over Texas. I'm. so. done. with. this. want. to. move. back. to. florida.