July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Aside from this weekend's possible break, How long will this hot/dry/ridge pattern last? Through next week? Longer?

If the medium/long range guidance is correct, the upper ridge will retreat NW towards Utah and a stout onshore flow off the Gulf will become established by next week. I don't see a prolonged heat wave in the cards this year for Texas. That said it does raise an eyebrow concerning potential tropical mischief as we head towards peak season.

[jasons2k]

That's good news. Even with the recent rains and cooler July, the trees up here are barely limping along since May and June were so dry. I've seen a couple of pines try to re-bloom new needles, but another prolonged dry spell would be fatal. Some of the oaks, especially water oaks, are already gone.

[tireman4]

Well, Tim Heller is buying into the backdoor front coming. Frank Billingsley sorta is, Chita Johnson is not and HGX is not. We shall see what lies ahead this weekend. Either way, next week will be hot too. Sigh.

[srainhoutx]

Strong to severe storms firing across Louisiana and may extend into far E Texas a bit later. Last night I saw a gust to 76 mph in Tulsa as storms rolled across Oklahoma last night with this disturbance in the NW flow aloft.

[jasons2k]

NWS HGX is actually optimistic for rain on Saturday. I hope they are right as next week looks hot and dry - hopefully it will be temporary:

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO RAISE
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A
DIGGING S/WV ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ON
SATURDAY AND JET DYNAMICS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE WITH SE TX LYING
IN A LEFT FRONT QUAD AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOMING DIVERGENT.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF SE TX FOR SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY AND THAT LOOKS KINDA GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PARKS OVER WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Upper ridge in control of the weather for at least the next 24-36 hours…but changes might be in store for the weekend.

Amplified upper air pattern in place across the US with stout high pressure ridge over the southern plains and deep downstream troughing over the SE and E US. Short wave passing through the mean upper flow are helping to develop thunderstorms along a slowly sagging frontal boundary over Louisiana stretching back into NE TX…a pattern that has been fairly common this summer.

Models have come into a little better agreement on a fairly significant short wave dropping down the eastern flank of the ridge on Saturday and helping to push some sort of wind shift “possibly a weak front” into our area from the north. Combination of this disturbance aloft and possible favorable position of the jet stream structure over at least the eastern ½ of the region does support a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. May see storms blow up in the heat of the afternoon from Huntsville to the Lake Charles area and progress SSW to SW into the evening hours. Afternoon high temperatures from 95-101 might support and few isolated severe threats of wind with these storms. This is somewhat of a conditional threat at this time as it is not overly clear if the subsidence from the ridge aloft will give enough ground to allow storms to develop or move into our area. Should have a better idea on this tomorrow as the meso scale models begin to resolve the situation.

Weak boundary or possible outflows from storms may push near the I-10 corridor and could see a few more storms on Sunday, but their does not appear to be any significant short wave in the NW flow to help spark storms. I could see Sunday ending up fairly dry especially is storm can get going on Saturday.

Ridge builds back overhead by early next week with generally hot and dry conditions. Attention then turns to what form and where Dorian is located by the middle of next week and how it may interact with troughing along the US east coast. Global models are generally favoring the weaker side of this system with several suggesting Dorian may weaken into an open wave and become steered more by the low level flow than the deep layer flow. It is now at least possible that a weaker system could not “feel” the trough on the east coast especially if the trough is shallower allowing possibly an open wave to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Plenty of time to watch…

[jasons2k]

Well it didn't take long for all the grass to have that silver/dry look and the leaves started drooping again on the trees. Hope it rains this weekend, otherwise, it looks like Dorian or bust for us. Not exactly what I'd like to hang my hopes on...

[Paul Robison]

Dear Houston resident:


No doomcasting or wishcasting intended, but folks, TS Dorian, judging from the model trends is starting to look more and more like it's going to draw a bead on our great city of Houston. My advice: Quitely buy what you need this weekend (bottled water, etc.) and monitor the latest news broadcasts regarding the storm.

[nuby3]

I'll bet you a million hypothetical dollars that this storm does not "hit" Houston.

[Paul Robison]

I'll bet you a million hypothetical dollars that this storm does not "hit" Houston.

Then how do you account for the latest westward trend in the forecast models? Five years ago, nobody believed Hurricane Ike would "hit" Houston, and guess what happened.

[SusieinLP]

Well technically Ike hit Galveston first....

[jasons2k]

I'll bet you a million hypothetical dollars that this storm does not "hit" Houston.

Someone famously said something similar about Ike and it will forever be a part of weather forum lore. Moral of the story, never say never in the weather because of climatology. I've seen it burn so many people, even well-respected mets.

[JulesC]

After our experience with Ike, I am always leary of those storms that come from the "land of Ike". Too far away for anyone to tell, but it never hurts to be prepared. It's just the beginning of the season for us.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on the storms developing near Brownwood along the frontal boundary sagging SE...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

TXZ139-140-262230-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLEMAN...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. SOME ROADS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY 206 AND U.S. 283.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SANTA ANNA BY 525 PM CDT
US-67 NEAR THE COLEMAN-BROWN COUNTY LINE AND BANGS BY 530 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

[TexasBreeze]

Rain has been really coming down in buckets for 30 min in Round Rock/Austin where I'm at for the weekend. The lightning in the storm is amazing!!!

[srainhoutx]

The frontal boundary is sagging S near College Station/Huntsville at this hour. Perhaps a bit of daytime heating can spark off additional storms later today along that boundary. We will see.

[Texas Pirate]

Another glorious INCH of rain by the bay!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't hate me cuz my garden is beautiful!

[jasons2k]

I had .14' overnight and nothing today. Maybe I'll get lucky tomorrow

[jasons2k]

Will probably be seeing a lot of this from the NWS, just boring, which does not bode well for rainfall chances/drought relief:

"CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING."

[srainhoutx]

With July coming to a close and a new moth ahead, all eyes turns toward the Tropics and those dog days of summer before the kiddos return to school. There are rather strong indications that conditions much more conducive for Tropical development will spread E across the EPAC into the NATL Basin during the next 10 days or so. The reliable Euro Ensembles are suggesting a more favorable MJO pulse and Kelvin Wave will progress E into our part of the world around the August 6th-9th time frame +/- a couple of days. I believe during the mid August to early September time frame has the potential for multiple storms to develop. We will see. Perhaps someone can start a Topic for August as we transition to a new month that may offer a more active weather pattern across our Region. I'll be away next week for a long planned break and some much needed R & R in the Florida Keys visiting old friends and neighbors. No doubt that wxman57, Andrew, Tireman4 and KatDaddy as well as the KHOU Weather Team will keep everyone up to date with the happenings in the weather world during my absence...