July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[djjordan]

Loving this tropical airmass. It seems like it's been a long time since we've had an airmass like this stay around for more than a day or two. Hopefully we can continue to put dents in this Texas drought that's been plaguing the state for years. More downpours please!!!!

[Andrew]

Tomorrow/ Today looks similar to today except I suspect a lot more places around SE Texas will see rain compared to the last couple of days. The U/L is currently located around the panhandle and should begin transitioning SW as it gets sheared apart. The interesting thing is the mid level disturbance in the gulf (as mentioned before). Moisture has decreased as of late but I suspect that things will fire up again tomorrow evening. With minimal activity currently this should help the atmosphere recover from previous showers and thunderstorms for later today. I suspect with greater breaks in clouds some storms may be a little stronger especially if things can hold off until the evening. With a nice mid level ridge to the NE and a small disturbance in the gulf progressing west/ WNW, a lot of moisture being advected into Texas. PW values off the coast range from 1.8-2.3 South of Louisiana and 850mb vector transport shows these values being transported to the SE and S Texas coast. As a result tomorrow and Wednesday look like the best chance of rain in my opinion. MIMIC-TPW below does a good job at showing the higher moisture levels arriving here soon.

[djjordan]

You know it's moist out when your house windows are wet with condensation from the A/C setting we have LOL.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the guidance continue to trend wetter and with the summertime pattern of old where we would see daily sea breeze rain and storm chances instead of baking under a permanent upper ridge and not a storm cloud to be found. The QPF forecast did indeed verify with parts of Central Texas receiving over 6 inches of rain and my backyard getting over 3 inches of rain the past 36 hours when I had received 0.19 Inches since late May prior to Sunday. The discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston is music to my old ears and looks a lot like the pattern of days gone by when we would have a typical moist airmass in place across the Gulf and daily rain and storm chances as far as the eye could see.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...HAS MAINTAINED AN ENTIRE COLUMN OF MODERATE
REGIONAL SOUTHEASTERLIES. THIS UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW HAS ADVECTED
IN A NEAR 2 INCH PWAT OFFSHORE AIR MASS...AS WELL AS WEAK EASTERLY
WAVES THAT...AS THEY APPROACH THE MAINLAND...HAVE AIDED IN INITIATING
OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED
AROUND GALVESTON BAY/SE CWA. THE POSITIONING OF THIS NORTHWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERN SURFACE TROUGHING WILL KEEP THIS
MOIST INFLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE...AS THIS MOIST GULF AIR MASS COMES
ASHORE AT AROUND 20 MPH...WILL AID IN GENERATING MORE SOUTHERN CWA
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING PRECIPITATION/
DAMP GROUNDS WILL REGULATE THIS WEEK`S TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR TO
AVERAGE MID 70 MINIMUMS...LOWER 90 MAXIMUM READINGS.

THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF
OFFSHORE PRECIPITATION ROTATING ONSHORE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
INTERIOR AFTERNOON WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUMP THIS AROUND 2 INCH PWAT AIR MASS UPWARDS...
NORTHWARD-MOVING AREAWIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THAT...AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
5H RIDGING WILL RE-FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT IS
NOT FORECAST TO COMPLETELY ENVELOP THE LONE STAR. THE STATE WILL
FALL UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGING...THIS
REGION OF RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP A STOUT EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN PLACE. THUS...ANY WEAK GULF PVA/EASTERLY WAVE
THAT ADVECTS WESTWARD WILL COME ONSHORE WITHIN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE
AND UNSEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (THROUGH WEEK`S CLOSE). THE
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN NEXT
WEEKEND...OR BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE LOCAL BREEZES. DUE TO
THE EXTENDED PROGS NOT COMPLETELY RE-BUILDING UPPER RIDGING IN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BE AN EARLY SIGNAL THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL NOT BE GOING AWAY. IF THIS LOWER HEIGHT PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE IN NEAR FUTURE NWP RUNS...DAY`S 6 AND 7 SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO MODERATE POPS.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z HRRR, NAM and 4 KM WRF are suggesting storms develop across the I-10 Corridor and move NW with some storms possibly becoming severe across the Northern half of Harris County and locations N and E this afternoon/early evening. Any storms that do develop will be capable of dropping torrential down pours of 1-2 inch per hour+ with dangerous cloud to ground lightning and very gusty winds. Keep an eye on the sea breeze/Bay breeze moving inland this afternoon.

[kayci]

OMG! The bottom just fell out here in Channelview!!!! The wind is crazy strong!
And I gotta drive home in this mess....

[mckinne63]

No rain on my lawn in Stafford. I've been watching the radar, seems it was all around here, but no direct hits. Maybe we will get some later like yesterday.

[tireman4]

Been raining on and off in Humble. Just finished one set and another is coming. Yet another is on its way.

[niner21]

Looks like the systems or edges of them are converging around Wichita Falls? Weird to see the storms merge and head north.

The state looks like it has measels, pockets of storms everywhere.

[jasons2k]

I was in the Woodlands this afternoon. I have broken the Woodlands Dome and made it rain in Montgomery County.

There is a chink in the armor. I've had .61" so far today and counting. YEAH!

AFD from the NWS this afternoon was not as encouraging or 'high' on our upcoming rain chances...we'll see...

[Katdaddy]

Success! We finally got some more rainfall in NE Galveston County. Brings my daily total up to .37" and two day total to .67" with more development across Galveston Bay and offshore. I think we are going to be just fine but the wave of skeeters are on the way. The first few are already here.

[redneckweather]

Not a drop at my house here in central Montgomery County.

[tireman4]

Hang in there. It is coming. A huge slug of moisture is slowly working its way toward you.

[djjordan]

Moisture keeps coming in off the GOM. This light to moderate rain in areas is really what all of Texas needs. Hopefully it doesn't get too much out of control as we enter today and this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

It appears we have one more day of scattered showers and storms as the upper low over New Mexico slowly translates W and a building upper ridge that will bring a heat wave to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and the big cities along the East Coast this weekend ridges down into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. There is a another upper low or TUTT over Florida that will move W under the developing Ridge across the Mid West/East Coast. More isolated rain/storm chances with warm and muggy weather should set in for our area. The fly in the ointment is that some models attempt to develop some sort of surface low of tropical origin as the mid/upper trough moves in our direction by late this weekend across the Gulf S of Louisiana. At this time a weaker system is expected, but future outlooks will need to be monitored in case increasing rainfall chances develop once again as the Florida system heads our way Sunday into Monday. The Lone Star State has certainly had a good 'drink of water' that was sorely needed with some locations seeing rainfall totals of 6-8 inches.

[Katdaddy]

One more day with a decent chance of tropical downpours. More thunder the last hour from heavy thunderstorms streaming inland across Eastern Brazoria County. Another .45" since midnight brings my storm total up to 1.13". Much drier weather begins Thursday and into the weekend and will be watching a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) move W across the GOM Sunday through early next week which may again increase rain chances for SE TX. Currently its over the Bahamas.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning from Galveston Island ESE out over the Gulf waters south of Sabine Pass and SW of Victoria. Majority of the inland areas are currently dry at the moment. Upper level low partly responsible for the recent wet period continues to move W into New Mexico leaving much of TX under a deep southeasterly tropical flow off the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of the upper level low and the west/southwest side of high pressure over the NE US and Ohio valley. Local soundings at Lake Charles and Corpus Christi continue to support a deep tropical air mass with PWS on the order of 1.9-2.3 inches. Once temperatures warm into the upper 80’s expect another round of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area with some locations picking up a quick 1-2 inches in the heavier downpours.

Drier air mass noted over the central Gulf of Mexico will work W toward the TX coast late this afternoon and begin to replace the deep tropical moisture in place. Will likely not see the early morning development on Thursday morning over the Gulf waters as the drier air mass works toward the coast and inland. Will begin to transition to more isolated to scattered afternoon activity along the seabreeze and baybreeze fronts for both Thursday and Friday. Coverage both days could be limited by both the drier air mass entering the area and subsidence approaching from another upper level low currently over FL.

Forecast for the weekend is slightly more complicated this morning as a couple models are trying to close off a surface reflection with the upper level system currently over FL. Given the current wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico this possibility seems somewhat remote at the moment, but nonetheless it is hurricane season. Upper level system usually take time to result in a surface reflection. Regardless of any tropical development or not, associated deeper moisture with this feature will begin to arrive into the TX coast late Friday and into the weekend and suspect rain chances will once again be on the rise (from 20-30% on Thursday and Friday) to 30-40% on (Saturday and Sunday).

Longer ranges attempt to show ridging building into the area from the NNE, but models are not being overly consistent on if the ridging will be strong enough to cut off rain chances. With ground moisture now recovering some from the recent rainfall it will likely be harder for high pressure to gain full control over the area and fully end rain chances.

[jasons2k]

Boo hiss! My favorite part of the world is the SW Florida coast and gulf beaches - I'd rather not see a hit there.

Anyway I did get a little bit more rain today, however, the line split right over my house once again leaving me with some light green leftovers. Maybe better luck next time!

[Paul Robison]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning from Galveston Island ESE out over the Gulf waters south of Sabine Pass and SW of Victoria. Majority of the inland areas are currently dry at the moment. Upper level low partly responsible for the recent wet period continues to move W into New Mexico leaving much of TX under a deep southeasterly tropical flow off the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of the upper level low and the west/southwest side of high pressure over the NE US and Ohio valley. Local soundings at Lake Charles and Corpus Christi continue to support a deep tropical air mass with PWS on the order of 1.9-2.3 inches. Once temperatures warm into the upper 80’s expect another round of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area with some locations picking up a quick 1-2 inches in the heavier downpours.

Drier air mass noted over the central Gulf of Mexico will work W toward the TX coast late this afternoon and begin to replace the deep tropical moisture in place. Will likely not see the early morning development on Thursday morning over the Gulf waters as the drier air mass works toward the coast and inland. Will begin to transition to more isolated to scattered afternoon activity along the seabreeze and baybreeze fronts for both Thursday and Friday. Coverage both days could be limited by both the drier air mass entering the area and subsidence approaching from another upper level low currently over FL.

Forecast for the weekend is slightly more complicated this morning as a couple models are trying to close off a surface reflection with the upper level system currently over FL. Given the current wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico this possibility seems somewhat remote at the moment, but nonetheless it is hurricane season. Upper level system usually take time to result in a surface reflection. Regardless of any tropical development or not, associated deeper moisture with this feature will begin to arrive into the TX coast late Friday and into the weekend and suspect rain chances will once again be on the rise (from 20-30% on Thursday and Friday) to 30-40% on (Saturday and Sunday).

Longer ranges attempt to show ridging building into the area from the NNE, but models are not being overly consistent on if the ridging will be strong enough to cut off rain chances. With ground moisture now recovering some from the recent rainfall it will likely be harder for high pressure to gain full control over the area and fully end rain chances.

Well, I don't think it'll develop into a tropical storm; it'd have to overcome a lot of shear over the shear over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico before anybody gives any serious talk to tropical development. However it’ll be a rainmaker, obviously. As I see it the question is how far west it tracks before moving inland into the Gulf Coast. If it moves into Louisiana early next week, Houston’s likely in for a hot, dry week with highs near 100 possible.

If it were to follow a more westerly course (at worst) we could see a repeat of what we’ve had so far this week — rainy, cooler temperatures.

I’d put my money in on Louisiana, but that's just me. Any questions or comments?

[jasons2k]

Hey gang,

I got another .25" today - not much but I'll gladly take it. That brings my total for this event up to 1.31". Would you consider that a bust? Tough call, so let's put this into perspective...

The average July rainfall for IAH is 3.9 inches. That's just average -- normal -- par for the course -- typical Houston weather, or as the NWS said last week "summertime pattern of old"...right? With that, A 'significant' rain event in July should easily top a couple of inches. Heck, just a good old fashioned sea-breeze shower can easily drop over an inch. This is the 'normal' paradigm of things, of course. Good old-fashioned 'normal' Houston weather.

So, one would think....after two weeks of weenie watching, an act of Congress, a massive ULL parked over the region for days, and promises of a wet pattern, I should at least score a couple of inches. Let me revise that, in a normal paradigm, such a scenario would equal a flood watch.

But it ain't so normal anymore. We get all those ingredients lined-up, almost a 'perfect storm' to create an onslaught of tropical downpours, and I can't even top an inch and a half? Really? 1.31 inches after 5 days of this? That's it?

I don't know whether I should just be grateful for the 1.31", or if I should be shaking my head in disbelief that I'm supposed to be happy with 1.31" in the first place.