July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX...W/SW LA...FAR SW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151838Z - 152045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS E TX...W/SW LA...AND FAR SW AR. OVERALL SVR THREAT
IS LOW BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS. SOME HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT AND ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS S-CNTRL LA AS WEAK
LARGE-SCALE CONFLUENCE /BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SW OK
AND BROAD SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST/ REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY W OF THE
REGION...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 500 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY AROUND -8
DEG C /12Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATED THIS AS WELL/. THESE RELATIVELY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NWRN LA.

OVERALL...SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK BUT THE GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE FLOW MAY LEND TOWARDS A FEW CELLS PROPAGATING NWWD AT
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MEAN FLOW WOULD INDICATE. LINE
SEGMENT EXTENDING THROUGH SABINE COUNTY/PARISH HAS YET TO SHOW THIS
TENDENCY BUT IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES WILL
LIKELY LIMIT STORM STRENGTH/DURATION BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. SVR HAIL SEEMS EVEN LESS
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. GIVEN MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/15/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[SusieinLP]

Right now it is sunny and hot. Hopefully that will help stir up some healthy storms. We got a shower early this morning but it moved through fast and not much to benefit the yard.

[jasons2k]

Is that an outflow boundary moving from East to West across northern Harris & Eastern Montgomery counties? The radar is void of anything, even moisuture returns, behind it. It looks like that curtain is going to sweep by and kill my rain chances this afternoon. Still below a quarter of an inch total for me...

[srainhoutx]

Its getting mighty noisy up here in NW Harris County with increasing cloud to ground lightning.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, everything is along and west of 45...nothing east.

Those rainfaill maps from last night - there is a horeshoe shape, or a "U" of nothing just east of I-45 in south Montgomery County. I'm at the bottom of that "U". It poured all around me yesterday on 3 sides.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

TXZ199-212-213-152130-
HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
346 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM FOR WESTERN HARRIS...NORTHEASTERN WALLER AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA AND STAGECOACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA AND STAGECOACH.

[unome]

closing in on 2 1/2 inches at Cypress Creek/290 gage http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[srainhoutx]

Just picked up 2.25 inches in 15 minutes at my location in NW Harris County... and still pouring.

[TexasBreeze]

3 days in a row and counting of rain for the lawn!:)

[Ptarmigan]

NWS Austin/San Antonio reports 6.78 inches of rain from a CoCoRaHS observer 10.6 miles NW of Burnet. Just what the Doctor ordered for those Hill Country Lakes...

Nice to see that Central Texas lakes got the rain as they needed it. Hopefully more rain comes.

[jasons2k]

I came home to an empty rain gauge. If I had time to mess with images, I'd post the one from Portastorm with Charlie Brown that says "I got a rock!" Sorta how I feel right now.

[wxman57]

My house is right between two gauges that measured 1/2" just outside the SW corner of Loop 610. I'm in New Orleans making a presentation, but my wife says we only got 0.12".

[jasons2k]

Hope you have a safe trip, Wxman!

I just got a quick .19" from a passing shower. Something to watch for tonight is training as inflow bands setup and train SE to NW into the ULL. It looks like one may be trying to form generally from The Woodlands to Baytown and out into the Gulf.

[niner21]

This appears to be just what the doctor ordered with the spread out rain all over the state.

Im not positive but I believe the aquifer level in San Antonio came up like 10' about 6 weeks ago and it has to be climbing with the 5 inches of rain they got over the past day or two...

We are probably in worse drought than 3 hours west of here.

[tireman4]

Expanding cell coming our way in Humble. Nice reading weather. Ahhh...

[PaulEInHouston]

Gulf2.jpg (140.26 KiB) Viewed 4463 times

Gulf.jpg (92.63 KiB) Viewed 4464 times

Interesting images that I wanted to share...it appears there is a mid-upper level rather strong low pressure feature in the Southern GOM (red circle) that may be competing with the ULL currently entering the Texas panhandle. (black line appears to be the break area). RBG/WV and visible loops showing this feature generally moving W/NW over the Gulf and wondering what affect it might have on moisture transport inland. Am "thinking" coastal areas may experience higher totals next day or two as the two systems battle for moisture. PW's are high over the coastal waters and continue to be advertised as high next few days. Just thought I would share and see what some of the pro's think on this feature. *edit* NHC has nothing on it, but definitely a disturbed GOM/BOC environment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS CONTINUE MOVING W/NW ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVENING IN A MOIST AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BELIEVE SCT
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SE AREAS BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAN THE FAR INLAND
AREAS.

[srainhoutx]

Good catch, Paul. I posted the NCEP ensemble TC genesis probs for 48 hours a day or two ago when they suggested some potential as a tropical wave moved W to WNW across the Yucatan into the SW Gulf. There is evidence of banding features as the storms over the NW Gulf head toward the Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coast. PW's have increased into the 2.2 Inch range across Coastal Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting development in the Gulf of Mexico.

[PaulEInHouston]

Good catch, Paul. I posted the NCEP ensemble TC genesis probs for 48 hours a day or two ago when they suggested some potential as a tropical wave moved W to WNW across the Yucatan into the SW Gulf. There is evidence of banding features as the storms over the NW Gulf head toward the Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coast. PW's have increased into the 2.2 Inch range across Coastal Texas.

GOM ULWind.jpg (110.83 KiB) Viewed 4398 times

Thanks...a newbie here, but learning daily! Analysis, as you saw before (kudos) continues to show 700mb and 200mb vorticity as mentioned. Shear appears to be relaxing as well...an area to watch. Interesting to see how the two features interact over the next day or two. UL winds verify the vorticity for sure.