July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Texas Pirate]

AND, again, nothing by the bay.
*SIGH*

[TexasBreeze]

I got a nice rain shower too for the lawn! 15-20 min.

[unome]

well I'm liking the forecast better than I did this morning, but it's still baking here, nary a drop so far

[robertscottlazar]

my location: east side of pearland texas right on the line with friendswood near dixie farm rd.
it is 544pm and we are getting pounded by a big storm. lighting.high winds,and heavy rain.
temperature went from 100 F at 450pm to the current 77 F
i thought it wasnt supposed to do this today?

[robertscottlazar]

it is 554 .still getting pounded. .84 inches of rain in the last 25 minutes. no joke. and this is a 20% rain chance day?

[Karen]

Just drove through Friendswood and the streets were flooding. WOW what a storm went from 100 to 78 in my car. Not much here in League City but I will take what we can get.

[Andrew]

multiple boundaries have setup up throughout SE Texas causing those isolated storms to fire off. What looks especially promising for this "pattern change" versus others is that the synoptic scale looks a lot more promising for multiple days of rain. As this U/L tracks west and southwest across the country the flow will transition from the north to the south where there will be a lot more moisture to work with. Once the Upper level low moves to the west of here the door should be wide open for a couple of days for at least a chance of rain. I don't think anyone here is calling for a drought busting event (especially down here) but it does look like there is a good chance of rain each day for a lot of next week. Heights should rise in the eastern part of the U.S. following the U/L causing a flow straight from the SE. On top of that there should be a steady stream of moisture coming from the gulf with multiple disturbances or waves tracking across the gulf. The GFS is already hinting at three possible areas of minor interest in the BOC, central gulf, or east of Florida. While development looks marginal at best the main thing to take from this is moisture levels should increase.

[SusieinLP]

That storm that hit Friendswood/Pearland must have formed right over my house. Wind, thunder but again I watched the clouds head west and move away from my area. Frustrating....this has happened at least two days in a row. Glad someone got a good soaking. I

[srainhoutx]

The upper low is currently moving WSW from Missouri toward Oklahoma and will be located across W Texas tomorrow. Rain and storm chance should increase in aerial coverage later today into Wednesday as a cold pocket aloft allows for better buoyancy or convective development with day time heating. Tomorrow into Tuesday could be rather stormy across most of Texas and we’ll need to monitor for some potential of a core rain event across portions of N Central and Central Texas where this enhanced rainfall threat is sorely needed.

[srainhoutx]

A very promising update from the Storm Prediction Center regarding the rain/storm potential across the Lone Star State today into this evening:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE STG ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING
FROM NERN CONUS ACROSS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS -- PROCEEDS WSWWD ACROSS OK.
STG RIDGE WILL EXTEND WSWWD FROM NERN CONUS HIGH ACROSS NEB THEN
ARCHING SWWD/SWD OVER UT/AZ. MAIN BELT OF WSWLY/WLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM PAC NW ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO NRN
ONT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER ID -- SHOULD LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TO SRN MB BY END OF PERIOD.
DISPLACEMENT OF FAVORABLE STG FLOW ALOFT FROM MOST FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT SUGGESTS MINIMAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

AT SFC...EFFECTIVE COLD-FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SRN
SEMICIRCLE OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...RELATED TO BOTH DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
DEEP-LAYER COOLING AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ON
DIABATIC-HEATING PROCESSES IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ABOVE SFC -- E.G. IN 14/00Z 925-MB ANALYSIS -- AND WAS
DRAWN ON 11Z SFC CHART FROM SERN LA ACROSS SERN THROUGH N-CENTRAL
TX...THEN NNEWD OVER SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA. RESULTING BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NM AND WRN/CENTRAL/SERN
TX...OVERTAKING DRYLINE NOW EVIDENT FROM TX BIG-BEND REGION TO ERN
PANHANDLE.

...SRN PLAINS TO DIXIE...
THREE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE REGIMES EXIST TODAY OVER THIS REGION...WITH
ENOUGH OVERLAP TO YIELD SINGULAR AREAS OF MRGL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK.

1. BAROCLINIC ZONE...REINFORCED BY CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH BELT OF ELEVATED TSTMS NOW EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS
PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...MAY BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SUBSEQUENT/SFC-BASED CONVECTION TODAY. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ANEW
OR AS CONTINUATION OF PART OF TSTM BELT NOW UNDERWAY. ENHANCED
MID-UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND CYCLONE ALOFT...WITH ONE JET MAX
ARCHING FROM WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE SEWD OVER NW/N-CENTRAL TX BY
00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCLUDE 70-75 KT 250-MB SPEED MAX...AND
40-50 KT 500-MB WINDS...IN SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX ALONG
AND BEHIND BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MOST BACKED...YIELDING
VERY STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL EXISTS. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE DCVA/COLD-CORE REGION
ALOFT...LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W TX SWATH...AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL COOLING TO EXTEND OUT FROM UNDER STRONGEST
MID-UPPER FLOW. ATTM...THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR
CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

2. POCKETS OF SFC HEATING AND OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING
BOUNDARIES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF MID-UPPER
LOW...AND ESPECIALLY OVER ITS PROXIMAL ERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF LATTER AREA ALSO WILL LIE BENEATH MINIMAL
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND PERHAPS WEAK DVM...WITH DCVA BEING OVER
WRN/SWRN SIDES OF VORTEX OF THIS NATURE. MEANWHILE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMIZED BENEATH MOST OF STRONGEST COOLING
ALOFT. GIVEN THESE DISPLACEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTS NEAR
SVR LIMITS EXISTS BUT APPEARS ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL.

3. PLUME OF DEEP SELYS AND RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOCATED OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD THROUGH PORTIONS MS/AL...AMIDST CONFLUENT
MID-UPPER WINDS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTN TSTMS IN
CLUSTERS AND BANDS. VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STG SFC
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD
AREAS OF 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD LAYER WILL
BE ENHANCED BY ERN SPEED MAX ALOFT FROM MID-SOUTH AREA SEWD OVER
PORTIONS AL. PRECIP LOADING AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN
PRECONVECTIVE/BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT STG/DAMAGING
GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS IN THIS REGIME.
..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 07/14/2013

[Katdaddy]

Picked up a quick .34" yesterday. Well needed rainfall yesterday with reports of wind damage in the Pearland area from damaging downburst winds. Flash Flood Watch W and SW of the Dallas-Ft Worth areas. Pattern change ongoing for SE TX. Decent rain chances all week.

[Katdaddy]

Tropical deluge yesterday.

[jasons2k]

There were two big tropical-like cells near me yesterday, and I threaded the needle between them. I picked-up .04" at my house with very gusty winds and about 30 seconds of bullet-like tropical rains.

A mile or two down the road, inside the rain curtain, had to be well over an inch. The ditches were totally full and there was standing water everywhere...it looked like it typically does after about a 2" soaking. We were out at lunch, in it, and it was the most intense downpour I've seen since Ike. Just a wall of water gushing down in very gusty winds - and it kept going for a good 20-30 minutes.

Loved it while it lasted - I just wished one of them was over my house. I think it looks good in the next few days

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

TXZ214-236>238-141900-
CHAMBERS-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

THE COAST GUARD REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR BOLIVAR FERRY AROUND
950 AM...AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LIVED
FUNNEL CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
TROPICAL FUNNELS RARELY REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...BUT
THEY SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THE LOW CHANCE IT ACTUALLY DOES
DESCEND TO THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TORNADO. PLEASE REPORT FUNNEL
CLOUD TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT WHO WILL THEN RELAY THIS
INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

[tireman4]

I would say, seeing what is matriculating from upstate to downstate, that this maybe a good chance for rain today. That is my amateur opinion and I stick by it.

[tireman4]

And this is what the HGX NWS is saying at this hour in the MFD

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING FAIRLY OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS STARTING TO LIMIT
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURE RISE OVER NE TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW BAND OF LIGHT OR MODERATE RAIN
EXTENDING ALONG I45 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL OK DOWN THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX. THIS BAND IS OCCURING WITH LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW NOW
TRACKING WSW INTO NORTHERN TX...AND ALSO MATHCES WELL WITH 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS SOME FOR MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FAR SW ZONES WHICH WILL STILL HAVE ANOTHER 2 TO 3
HOURS OF DECENT SUNSHINE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP PRECIP CHANCES FOR
NW ZONES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MODELS SUGGEST BEST FORCING AND
LIFT TO STAY MAINLY NW OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE AREA OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME AS IT LEAVES AREA OF BETTER
LIFT. THIS IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
OTHER MODELS ALSO FOCUS ON THOSE NW ZONES. CLOSER TO THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SE THE ONGOING RAIN
AREA WILL REACH.

[srainhoutx]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
946 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

...VALID 15Z SUN JUL 14 2013 - 12Z MON JUL 15 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

INITIALLY RATHER DRY UPR LOW RETROGRADING RAPIDLY WSWWD FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION WILL ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET
AND DEEPER MSTR AS IT MOVES INTO FAR SRN KS/OK/NRN TX REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. EXPECTED INITIAL N/S AXIS OF CONVECTION ACRS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KS/OK INTO N TX WILL BECOME A BIT MORE E/W ORIENTED AS
UPR LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION SUN NIGHT. VERY FAVORABLE
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INTO COLLAPSING THICKNESSES ALONG
DEVELOPING E/W SFC TROF IS USUALLY A STG INDICATOR FOR HEAVY
RAINS..AND THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD SUPPORT AMONGST THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND HI RES MODEL RUNS FOR SOME HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE
RAINS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX.
THE STG DYNAMIC SIGNATURE COUPLED WITH HI PWS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OR
MORE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH PLUS RAINS ACRS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL TX...WITH
ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE STRONGER...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE SREF/EC/GEFS AND HIGHER-RES SSEO/EXREF
PROBABILITIES SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE TEXAS PORTION OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...THE
BULK OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR TONIGHT.

[jasons2k]

Those new cells going-up near Huntsville, at this time of day already, really give me hope that lift will spread far enough SE, combined with more heating, to trigger storms around Houston later this afternoon.

[PaulEInHouston]

CellsWebcam.jpg (38.06 KiB) Viewed 4086 times

Morning all...no rain yesterday at my station, but crossing fingers today! Nice convective blow-up over Texas City area/bay moving inland...appears to be pulse type though and maybe sea-breeze driven. Looks like strong jet streak/flow from N/NE at mid-levels is ripping cells apart quickly though and shunting them in a S/Westerly direction as they build. Am not overly confident on the large area from the North making it's way down to Houston...thinking this region will shift NW as the ULL migrates W/SW into OK and TX. Once that happens, the flow will transition to S/Easterly opening up the Gulf moisture tap. Hopefully all of Texas will see much needed rain over the next week.

[Ptarmigan]

Good to see rain coming back.