July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

NWS Offices from Brownsville to New Orleans are beginning to increase their precipitation forecasts as the reliable models are coming into better agreement that a tropical wave and possibly some form of weak tropical low develops Friday night into Saturday and moves generally N towards the Texas Coast. While winds will not be a major concern from any potential tropical spin up, rainfall will be the 'main weather headline' as PW's increase to the 2+ inch range. Whether or not some form of tropical low pressure develops, increasing tropical rains appear likely beginning Saturday and extending into early next week.

[JamieP]

Since the title says, "thoughts" I wanted to add mine.
Something I've been thinking about "our" weather the last couple of years.

It seems (or feels) to me, like our seasons have shifted a bit. Almost right after Hurricane Ike, and that cool front right after it.
And the horrible drought of 2011.

I get the feeling that our seasons are shifting to the "left" a bit. Whereas, the old weather of February and March is now April and May.
June and July temps are now "Augusty." (If that's a word).

It also seems that we have more of an, Arizona/New Mexico feel to our weather now as well, where we didn't have that before.
Maybe it's an axis shift?
June bugs are called that for a reason I assume, but are showing themselves as early as March.

Maybe it's jet stream positioning.


Anyway, my .02.

I have the same thoughts Rip76. Something has definitely "shifted" with our weather. I noticed the pattern change you mention after Ike. The seasons seem to be off.

I also noticed a difference in the sun placement after the 2010 earthquake in Hati. I have lived in the same home for over 25 years - and I can see the morning sun rise through my kitchen window and set on the living room window side of the house. After the quake, the sunrise and sunset moved! Not by much, but enough to notice (yes, I'm taking into account the variation of exactly where the sun is depending on the season). It was within a matter of days after the quake that I noticed it, pointed it out to my husband, and he noticed too. Something had to have shifted (axis?) because the house is still in the same place! Has anyone else out there noticed this?

[unome]

I also noticed a difference in the sun placement after the 2010 earthquake in Hati. I have lived in the same home for over 25 years - and I can see the morning sun rise through my kitchen window and set on the living room window side of the house. After the quake, the sunrise and sunset moved! Not by much, but enough to notice (yes, I'm taking into account the variation of exactly where the sun is depending on the season). It was within a matter of days after the quake that I noticed it, pointed it out to my husband, and he noticed too. Something had to have shifted (axis?) because the house is still in the same place! Has anyone else out there noticed this?

oh my goodness...

seriously, is this what it's come to ???

[TexasBreeze]

Yup! Texas has become more 'arid' since at least Ike moved through overall. Well except for wxman57's location!

[srainhoutx]

Seabreeze is moving inland and a shortwave to our N and W rotating beneath the retreating upper trough has sparked some stronger storms across Madison, Walker and Houston Counties.

[niner21]

Honestly, we're talking about a BLIP in time. 100 years is a blink of an eye in earth terms. We're just so egotistical in terms of weather patterns and changes...

[Paul Robison]

Anyone think this BOC system likely to spin up into another hurricane like Humberto (2007)?

[mckinne63]

Dh is downtown and he says it is storming. Here in Stafford nothing.

[Paul Robison]

What's happening with that tropical wave in the Bay Of Campeche? First they said it wasn't going to develop----now David Paul says it just might. I'm slightly confused. Could somebody help me?

[TexasBreeze]

The way it looks now on satelite, I would doubt development. Only a couple storms with it now and high shear.

[Paul Robison]

The way it looks now on satelite, I would doubt development. Only a couple storms with it now and high shear.

Well, TexasBreeze, I doubt development, too. The trouble is, David Paul was quoting the National Hurricane Center. What does the NHC know that we don't?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Much anticipated and long awaited pattern change is underway this morning and should bring much needed rainfall to the area.

Upper level trough axis located over the NW Gulf of Mexico and a WNW moving tropical wave located over the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to advance toward the TX coast over the next 24-36 hours. Moisture levels will be on the rise starting later today and into Saturday with the peak in the moisture arriving on Sunday into Monday.

Expect a continuation of the isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the seabreeze today with coverage on the order of about 20%. With better moisture influx on Saturday expect 30-40% coverage along the seabreeze. Sunday into Monday is where things start to get a little tricky. NAM and GFS want to spin up a weak surface low off the TX coast and bring it inland over SE TX Sunday. No other model guidance suggest this development and based on the current satellite images and strong shear over the tropical wave axis, any development would be very slow and on the weak side. However an influx of tropical air with PWS well over 2.0 inches looks likely on Sunday and this will support widespread rain and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall a good threat.

Such patterns tend to focus their heavy rainfall in the morning hours and near the coast so will go with the highest rain chances on Sunday S of US 59 with more scattered amounts inland. Given the very tropical nature of the incoming air mass a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall is likely along and S of US 59 with isolated amounts possibly up to 5-6 inches.

See no need at this time to make much changes to the tide/seas forecast. Tides are already running about 1 ft above normal and this may go up a little more over the weekend with increasing ESE flow helping to pile water toward the coast. Even if a weak surface low does spin up over the NW Gulf expect seas to only slowly respond. Longer period swells will be on the increase as longer fetch Gulf winds arrive toward the coast on Saturday. These bigger swells will create an increased rip current threat.

[Katdaddy]

Another day of isolated thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze. Any storm that develops could have very strong downbursts when they collapse. Things change tomorrow as tropical moisture moves across SE TX. A few of the models try to close off a low in the WGOM and move it into SE TX. To much shear for anything more than a very weak TD at best and that is doubtful. Regardless tropical moisture will bring very heavy well needed rainfall Sunday into Monday. Some areas may see up to 5" of rain.

[djmike]

Ok, now Im confused. Why does NWS Corpus show this low moving inland south of Corpus and NWS Houston shows the low moving inland around Galveston? How can two NWS locations side by side show something so different? Is it coming onshore near Corpus or Houston? Im confused!

corpus.PNG (196.1 KiB) Viewed 3861 times

houston.PNG (208.44 KiB) Viewed 3861 times

[kayci]

Pinch me Kat to see if I'm awake... did you just say up to 5 inches of rain???? You're my new best friend!

[Rip76]

Can anyone post future shear prob. graphics?

[srainhoutx]

A 1012mb surface low is developing a couple of hundred miles E of San Fernando, MX or SSE of Brownville along the wave axis. Wind shear remains a bit hostile, but the GFS suggests that as the weak low generally moves N, upper level winds may relax enough for some development prior to making landfall along the Upper Texas Coast in about 60-75 hours.

[jeff]

Ok, now Im confused. Why does NWS Corpus show this low moving inland south of Corpus and NWS Houston shows the low moving inland around Galveston? How can two NWS locations side by side show something so different? Is it coming onshore near Corpus or Houston? Im confused!

corpus.PNG

houston.PNG

CRP is referencing the upper level trough and upper level low breaking off in the base of the central US trough. HGX is showing a "possible" surface low moving toward the upper TX coast. I would have drawn on a trough axis instead of a low...

[Rip76]

Very interesting...

[ticka1]

Very interesting...

what is interesting?