April Weather Discussion.

[txflagwaver]

So what are the chances of storms south of I10?? Have to pick up a washer and dryer this afternoon....

[srainhoutx]

SPC trims back (slightly) Moderate Risk in E and NE TX...Slight Risk remains for Houston Metro Area...





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX...NORTHERN LA...MUCH OF AR...NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MS...AND WESTERN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...ARCING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NEB....

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...TX/LA/AR/MS/TN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE MS VALLEY. ONE SUCH FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ACROSS EAST
TX WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF AR/LA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RAPID
INFLUX OF NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG...AND HELP TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION SHOWN ON THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
COOLING...FURTHER HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM SEVERAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA /ESRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 SHOWN BY 00Z/. THE COMBINATION
OF DISCRETE INITIATION OF CONVECTION...AMPLE CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND HIGH HELICITY VALUES GIVE
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING THE FORECAST OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES /SOME
STRONG/ TODAY OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR TO NEAR MEM.
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS UNCLEAR AND WILL BE
MODULATED BY RETURN SPEED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO THAT
REGION.

...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO THE
BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.

...EAST TX/LA/AR OVERNIGHT...
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ROTATE INTO TX BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER EAST TX...WITH STORMS RACING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY OVER PARTS OF MS/LA/TN ON SATURDAY.

..HART/SMITH.. 04/23/2010

[srainhoutx]

HGX Updated HWO...I suspect our Severe Weather folks will be active and providing great Updates during the next 24 hours...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
752 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
752 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG CAP WILL BE OVER THE AREA INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A
GROVETON TO BELLVILLE LINE COULD HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SLOWING AND
BRIEFLY STALLING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING TOWARD THE AREA GETTING THE COLD FRONT MOVING AGAIN AND
SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL VERY UNSTABLE BUT
CAPPED. CLOSER TO THE FRONT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE UNSTABLE WITH STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THE CAP SHOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE REGION BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND EARLY AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

[svrwx0503]

Yep, this looks like a pretty typical late April severe outbreak with our friend the cap keeping the storms around the metro area and places south in check; however, our northern counties could take a beating from two rounds of severe weather. Don't have much time to really look at the models this morning before class, but it does looks like we will see some good instability develop by late afternoon along with decent shear, especially up north and east where the mod risk is. Now, by no means should people in Houston let their guard down because if a severe squall line develops overnight, the cap might not be enough to keep the storms from doing damage, especially across northwest and northern sections of the city. Should be an interesting 24 hours

[svrwx0503]

Looking at the latest RUC mesoanalysis, CAPE values are already running in the 1000-2000J/kg range along with 0-1km SRH in the 200-350 range; however the area remains strongly capped. Up north across northeast Texas where capping is weaker, thunderstorms have started to develop with the SPC liking going to issue a tornado watch in the next few hours due to the strong shear that the storms can tap into.

[sambucol]

In Baytown tonight, we are having Relay for Life. It lasts all night. Does it look like we will be in for some rough weather? Last year there were severe thunderstorms, high winds, flooding, and lightning. The storm literally destroyed every tent out there. We are very apprehensive about going through a repeat tonight. Does anyone here have an idea of what we might expect tonight and until tomorrow morning?

[srainhoutx]

HGX Mid Morning Update...still some questions concerning the capping...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

.UPDATE...
PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
DWINDLING DOWN TO MORE SCT/ISO POCKETS OF -SHRA. MORNING SOUNDINGS
FROM CRP/LCH TRULY TELL THE STORY...STRONG CAP OVER A SATURATED
LOWER 5-6 KT LAYER. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR A GOOD PART OF
TODAY...IN SUMMARY A LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCE DAY WITH DAYTIME
WARMING TO NEAR 80F THAT MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE SHORT-LIVED ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO POP UP.

WIDESPREAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TO COMMENCE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AS OF NOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY STRONG STORM TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS BASED ON THE FACT IT WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME THIS
STRONG CAPPING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...IF THE CURRENT WESTERN JET
LEVEL SPLITTING AND WIND CORE FALLS INTO PLACE OVER SE TX (AND
THIS PROGGED LL JET FORMS OFF COAST) AROUND 6Z-ISH...THIS COULD BE
THE CAP BREAKER. EXPERIENCE LENDS TO NAUGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG STORMS NEARING THOSE SEVERE LIMITS OF
HIGH WIND AND HAIL DURING THE SATURDAY 06Z-12Z HOURS ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. 31

[texoz]

Just checked obs DFW, FTW, DTO and MWL. Dry line/trough is advancing, just passed FTW and DTO, although dew points not yet dropping, has yet to pass DFW or DAL.

DFW and DAL are socked in. Scattered low clouds about 1000 feet, broken deck 9000, another deck 25,000.

Odds of Metroplex Severe are dropping if the dry line/trough is already advancing.


Only bright light, even back at ABI and SPS, with SW and W winds, dewpoints still above 50ºF, and skys are clearing. Just looked at SPC surface analysis, the dewpoint gradient is fairly broad, the wind shift may be the dry line, if it is, it is a sorry excuse for a dryline.


If it is just a weak trough, the wind shift seems to mark the clearing line, and maybe areas West of DFW will still destabilize. But I hate a sloppy dry line.

Check this sat loop. Might be a dry line forming near San Angelo / Abilene area.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... &itype=vis

[srainhoutx]

I a bit more 'fine tuning' by the SPC with both Slight and Moderate Risk Areas. Of note is that some SPC WRF data suggests Super Cell Structures near Austin later today.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...ARKLATEX TO MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/BASAL UPPER JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES AIDING STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. REFERENCE
TORNADO WATCH 79 AND ASSOCIATED/SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS.

...NEB/KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NARROW AXIS OF A MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO.
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTOR NORMAL TO
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THE DISCRETE STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY...WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
WEST OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...OTHER LOW-TOPPED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DRY SLOT AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO ARKLATEX TONIGHT...
THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WITH ATTENDANT 100+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK/ CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PIVOT INTO TX/OK LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/OVERTAKING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX
TONIGHT...WITH STORMS RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
THE START OF ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 04/23/2010

[wxdata]

GRK radar is up and running however-

"The KGRK radar is up and running. It is running fine, but in a limited mode; however it should remain running through the weekend. The radar will have to be worked on again on Monday."

"We've just been informed that KGRK velocity (and SRM) data will be degraded to the point it may be inaccurate or unusable especially in the lowest 2 elevations scans and in regions of high turbulence (i.e. storms). "

[wxdata]

Thoughts from the Ft. Worth NWS:

"We are favoring the NAM at this point, and we believe that the dryline will stall somewhere along a Bonham to Dallas to Hillsboro to Lampasas line today. However, we will be in between shortwave disturbances this afternoon, which will may limit convection (or at least keep it isolated). Will have to be concerned about these isolated storms for severe potential. Tonight models continue to show the next strong shortwave coming across and with instability in place it appears widespread convection will develop, this time across our SW zones and spreading east/northeast during the overnight hours."

[wxdata]

Late morning thinking from San Antonio/Austin NWS:

"Potential for thunderstorm development this afternoon is on the rise along a surface trough currently progressing SE across the Hill Country and moving into an uncapped and unstable atmosphere. BUFKIT soundings from the RUC and NAM12 show the supercells being the primary storm mode this afternoon with initiation between 1-2PM. Will be monitoring closely..."

[srainhoutx]

Appears dry line has stalled just N and W of Austin/San Antonio.

[wxdata]

Noon thinking for Houston's NWS:

"As of now, it looks very marginal (for severe weather today) due to the stout cap we are currently under. Cap will erode in that 06Z-12Z window as main trof axis crosses off to NE and dryline catches up to cold front...but will it be in time for any decent initialization? The best pro is in the upper levels with nice div and 100-plus kt core coming across that may place you all in a lf quad. A lot of ifs....but if these mid-level lapse rates can be realized after midnight, then yes, a more moderate chance for severe seems a safe bet."

[ticka1]

Noon thinking for Houston's NWS:

"As of now, it looks very marginal (for severe weather today) due to the stout cap we are currently under. Cap will erode in that 06Z-12Z window as main trof axis crosses off to NE and dryline catches up to cold front...but will it be in time for any decent initialization? The best pro is in the upper levels with nice div and 100-plus kt core coming across that may place you all in a lf quad. A lot of ifs....but if these mid-level lapse rates can be realized after midnight, then yes, a more moderate chance for severe seems a safe bet."

So is this saying after midnight Houston area might have a better chance at severe weather - not that I want to see any of it...just asking?

[srainhoutx]

[wxdata]

So is this saying after midnight Houston area might have a better chance at severe weather - not that I want to see any of it...just asking?

yes.

[wxdata]

Ft. Worth NWS saying dry line extends from Sherman to Mesquite to Waco to Georgetown.

[srainhoutx]

Intersting note concerning tomorrow for areas outlined in the Moderate Risk to our N and E...

CONCERNING THE TORNADO OUTBREAK SCENARIO...THE THINKING IS THAT A
CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE SABINE RIVER
IN FAR NE TX AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO
ERN AR AND NWRN MS BY MIDDAY. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE MCS TO BE
JUST AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET CORE SUGGESTING
THE SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND A
LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SUPERCELLS AND
WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE TRANSITIONING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A WARM...INCREASINGLY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG.

LATER TONIGHT...A SECONDARY ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS
THESE STORMS RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE.

ON SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OUTBREAK WITH STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.


..GUYER.. 04/23/2010

[biggerbyte]

Folks, I would strongly encourage you to pay attention to the forecast and radar returns for your area as night falls. The air today is very warm, very moist and uncomfortable, and prime for severe weather as this cap loses it's grip. Instability is grand, so this cap is all that is currently holding us back. As all the players/triggers come together overnight, expect rain for most, with many getting strong to severe storms. Folks north of I10 will have the greatest concern, and then those living north of Montgomery County seeing the greatest concentration of severe storms.

Be safe...

BB