June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

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David Paul
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I was thinking the exact same thing. And I see a new cell near Westfield in north Harris county.
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jasons2k
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Yeah, I watched the cell move towards the airport (IAH) and then up here. It had a decent updraft, but it was so small, it just couldn't last very long. Another small cell trying to do something near Cypress, north of 290, but again it's too small to last long or sustain.
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is that depressing or what ?

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showers today were nice though
Texas Pirate

Reminds me of the song
"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right
Here I am stuck in the middle with you."

:(
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak upper level low located over SW TX near Del Rio this morning with moist plume of tropical air extending ESE from this feature across the middle and lower TX coast. Water vapor images clearly show this feature and demarcation line between tropical air mass to our south and drier air to the north. Convection is being enhanced this morning on the SE side of this low from just north of Corpus Christi extending SE well into the Gulf of Mexico. PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches are found across all of S TX and the coastal bend and this likely stretches NE into the Matagorda Bay region and possibly as far north as Wharton and Columbus before drier air is found across our northern and eastern counties. Water vapor images show an ever so slightly N shift in the tropical moisture plume to our south with some very slight westward drying over eastern TX. Think areas west of I-45 fall closer to the CRP sounding than the FWD sounding and once convective temperatures in the upper 80’s are achieved expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop…most numerous around Matagorda Bay and southward.

Upper level feature will progress slowly WNW into the Big Bend region this evening and some of the high resolution models are suggestions deep tropical moisture near the center may result in nighttime core rainfall as is common in and around such “warm core” features in the summertime. Potential is there for some big rainfall totals overnight between San Antonio and Del Rio where SE low level flow off the Gulf will encounter favorable lift on the E flank of the upper level system. Could be some flash flooding in this area along normally dry creek/rivers overnight into Thursday.

Ridge of high pressure should gradually gain better control of the weather starting Thursday helping to suppress rain chances. Still some uncertainty on how quickly this evolves and thus far the ridge has not been able to gain a strong enough foothold to end afternoon convective chances. Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week….think the ridge will finally gain control with temperatures warming into the mid 90’s and rain chances falling to less than 10%. Deep tropical moisture and some potential energy emerges into the western Caribbean Sea and Yucatan area by early next week. Several of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members are attempting at closing off an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Looks like high pressure will remain in firm control along the US Gulf coast to steer any potential tropical low more W toward Mexico however any weakening or shifting of the ridge axis could open the door for a significant increase in tropical moisture and higher rain chances next week.
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.04" here yesterday. Had to have been much, much more just down the road with all the standing water & flooded ditches. Radar showed me just on the edge of the core.

.01" today. I'm standing at 1.36" so far in June. Only .58" in May. I'm having a localized severe drought here. Two miles away, it's a swamp. Crazy.
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srainhoutx
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Some very isolated and widely scattered shower/storms are possible again today, mainly W of I-45. That so called ‘Death Ridge’ is weaker than previously modeled and also is further off to our E. This is not 2011 after all. It does appear a back door frontal boundary may approach the Region on Sunday increasing chances slightly once again. There continues to be indications that the upper ridges move a bit N and increasing deep tropical moisture begins to surge into the Western Gulf next week. While an organized tropical system is not expected at this time, that increased moisture may allow for increasing summertime sea breeze showers and storms to develop and move inland with increasing frequency later next week. Mid 90’s are very typical for this time of year with upper 90’s further inland. The time frame to watch for tropical mischief appears to be during the late June/early July timeframe as a more favorable MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) pulse move E toward the EPAC and the Western Atlantis Basin. The favored areas for any development would tend to be the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf, so check our Hurricane Central Section for updates regarding any future potential Tropical Troubles… ;)
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Texas Pirate

This is not 2011 after all.


Thank you. This went well with my morning coffee!
The fires in Colorado gave me pause today and took me back to 2011.
I did hear they got all the disabled out first in their evacuation. Kudos to CO.
Prayers up for them.
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srainhoutx
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Our neighbors to the W from Victoria, Corpus to San Antonio and locations further W into the Edwards Plateau are benefiting from pw's of 2+ inches and no capping issues...

Image

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
150 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TXZ204-205-219-220-131930-
ATASCOSA-BEXAR-FRIO-MEDINA-
150 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO...WESTERN BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES EAST OF SOMERSET...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF
POTEET...MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY OVER DEVINE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
DEVINE...
SAN ANTONIO...
CASTROVILLE...
HONDO...
SOMERSET...
NATALIA...
LYTLE...
PEARSON...
BIRY...
NOONAN...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote:Our neighbors to the W from Victoria, Corpus to San Antonio and locations further W into the Edwards Plateau are benefiting from pw's of 2+ inches and no capping issues...

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/EWX_loop.gif

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
150 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TXZ204-205-219-220-131930-
ATASCOSA-BEXAR-FRIO-MEDINA-
150 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO...WESTERN BEXAR AND MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES EAST OF SOMERSET...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF
POTEET...MOVING NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY OVER DEVINE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
DEVINE...
SAN ANTONIO...
CASTROVILLE...
HONDO...
SOMERSET...
NATALIA...
LYTLE...
PEARSON...
BIRY...
NOONAN...
They can use the rain for sure. 8-)
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Upper level high pressure centered just north of the region has been unable to gain a strong foothold on the region this week. Mid level “tropical” low over northern MX continues to draw deep tropical moisture NW over the lower and middle TX coast into SW TX where the SE winds are driven upward by lift from the low and the increasing elevation. Heavy rains continue in the area W and SW of San Antonio into MX. This feature will begin to slowly lift NNW today into W TX bringing much needed rainfall to a parched W TX. To our east the cold front responsible for all the severe weather yesterday over the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic will is currently pushing SW across W MS into E LA. This boundary will continue a WSW to W progression today under the steering of the high pressure to its NNW and convective induce outflow boundaries. This boundary will likely reach the Sabine River by late afternoon.

The upper ridge has never been able to entrench enough to result in strong enough subsidence to kill rain chances completely over the region. This is in part to the tropical low to our west helping to pump moisture and latent heat into the ridge and rain cooled S winds moving off S TX helping to offset the heating under the ridge. Additionally the grounds are more wet than dry across much of E TX from rainfall over the recent weeks and this is preventing strong surface heating (ie widespread 100 degrees). As seen the past few days, the seabreeze will likely set off a few thunderstorms this afternoon over the region and the incoming boundary from the NE may get close enough to develop more intense late afternoon activity from the Lake Livingston SSE to High Island area especially where the seabreeze and this feature meet up. Soundings for our NE counties around Livingston show a breakable cap with surface temperatures in the low 90’s which should be easily achieved. Storms in this region could have a damaging wind threat given the inverted sounding profile and this will result in strong outflow boundaries moving WSW to SW into the region late this evening. Storms could go until an hour or two after dark moving in from the NE. The main question is how far west they may get this afternoon and evening and this likely depends on what time and where the storms develop.

Weakness remains just to our east on Saturday and suspect with heating another round of storms will develop and track WSW toward the area out of the Sabine region. Not overly confident in widespread coverage of rainfall, but something to keep an eye on as such NE flow type events tend to happen near/after peak heating and pose a damaging wind risk.

Through next week the ridge does not look to gain control with a general weakness in the height field aloft. This should allow for daily seabreeze induced storms. Tropical moisture surges into the Bay of Campeche for the middle to end of next week and will need to keep an eye down south for any possible NW movement of this deeper moisture which would help to enhance rain chances.


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srainhoutx
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Reports of flooding ongoing from Eagle Pass N to Del Rio and a bit E into the Edwards Plateau. Several tropical funnels have been reported as well.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS ADJACENT TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141552Z - 141715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CELLULAR CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NNWWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THESE
STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A VERY MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS YIELDING MARGINAL CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...WIND
PROFILE FROM THE DFX RADAR SHOWS ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SLY AT
3 KM AGL...RESULTING IN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND 0-3
KM SRH VALUES NEAR 300 M2 S-2. AS A RESULT...ROTATING STORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED...A FEW OF WHICH MAY POSE A BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHEAR
SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASES IN MAGNITUDE.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
06142013 mcd1078.gif
06142013 mcd1078.gif (8.86 KiB) Viewed 4918 times
06142013 TX VIS 19Z latest.jpg
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Ptarmigan
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:They don't need six inches in a day, but if you check, the Rio Grande and adjacent land from around LRD to DRT is in severe drought.


And that sounding would be manly even for LCH in June.

Image
Let them have the 6 inches of rain in one day. Better than no rain. 8-) :twisted:
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how about that, hope it stays together !

Image
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srainhoutx
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Our neighbors to the W are having Flash Flood issues of their own. As usual with these 'drought busters' it all comes at once.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES KIRBYVILLE...
WEST CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES CALL...
SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOWN BLUFF...FRED...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...OVER KIRBYVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROGANVILLE...MT. UNION...MAGNOLIA SPRINGS...CANEY HEAD AND SPURGER
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srainhoutx
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Folks form Lake Livingston, Lake Houston on down to Bolivar may see some heavy down pours if this complex holds together.
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Flash Flood Emergency - 9.34 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 HOURS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MAVERICK COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* AT 352 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE ELM CREEK
TO EAGLE PASS TO ROSITA SOUTH AREA. EAGLE PASS HAS RECORDED 9.34
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SECO MINES TO EAGLE PASS TO
ROSITA SOUTH AREAS. NUMEROUS STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE RISING HIGHER
INTO FLOOD. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING. THIS
IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. EVACUATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR
THOSE LIVING ALONG OR CLOSE TO MAIN CREEKS. LOCAL OFFICIALS WILL
BE IN THOSE AREAS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE.

A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR ELM CREEK TO SECO MINES TO
EAGLE PASS TO ROSITA SOUTH.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...EAGLE
PASS...EL INDIO...NORMANDY...PALOMA...ROSITA NORTH AND ROSITA
SOUTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
PICOSA CREEK...GRANDE, RIO...ELM CREEK...HEDIONDO CREEK...CHUECO
CREEK...CHIMENEAS CREEK...SALADO CREEK...MUSTANG CREEK...CUEVAS
CREEK...SAN AMBROSIA CREEK AND QUEMADO CREEK.

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
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srainhoutx
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Warm core rain event unfolded overnight where 9.5 Inches of tropical rains fell in the Eagle Pass area. The Rio Grande River is expected to reach flood stages that have not been seen is the July 1976 flood event. Two day totals in some locations are nearing the 10 to 15 inch amounts with some isolated higher totals across The Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande River.
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srainhoutx wrote:Warm core rain event unfolded overnight where 9.5 Inches of tropical rains fell in the Eagle Pass area. The Rio Grande River is expected to reach flood stages that have not been seen is the July 1976 flood event. Two day totals in some locations are nearing the 10 to 15 inch amounts with some isolated higher totals across The Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande River.


The Eagle Pass mayor is saying the town has received 12-15 inches of rain. Numerous water rescues and evacuations ongoing. Quite an amazing warm-core nocturnal event. Reminds me of what TS Charley did to Del Rio in 1998.
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