May: Isolated Showers To End The Month

[jasons2k]

My yard is the last place in SETX that hasn't seen significant rain.
6Z 4 km NAM not optimistic, but it did a poor job at Hour 7 depicting Hill Country rain.
I thin today is a satellite and radar watching day.

Well, one the last places

I've had .58" for May thus far. In the last 40 days I've only had .80".

The last decent rain I had was on April 2nd with 2.67". That was a bit of an anomaly since I only had 1.13" in all of March. After a wet Jan & Feb, it's been a dry 3 months here in southern Montgomery County.

I agree today will be a sat/radar watching day. I actually think we have a decent shot later on.

[srainhoutx]

Storm Prediction Center Update for today:

...S CNTRL/SE TX THROUGH TNGT...
S CNTRL TX MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SE TODAY...DRIVEN MAINLY BY
FORWARD-PROPAGATION INTO MOIST...SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW. SYSTEM ALSO MAY
BE SUPPORTED BY APPARENT MID/UPR-LVL CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED...NOW SE OF SJT. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING
AND FAIRLY HIGH PW /AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ MAY FOSTER ISOLD STRONG/SVR
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ALONG
LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD...HOWEVER...
MINIMIZE DEGREE...DURATION...AND ORGANIZATION OF ANY SUCH THREAT.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/24/13 1335Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14 1315Z LP
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ONGOING HEAVY RAINS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CLOUD TOPS BELOW -62 DEGREES C ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER
NEAR KDLF. FIRST VIS IMAGERY OF THE MORNING SHOWS NEWER CONVECTION WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO BE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE BORDER... EXPERIMENTAL
SATELLITE OVERSHOOTING TOP ALGORITHM ALSO DETECTS THE MOST RAPID CLOUD
TOP COOLING OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH... WAVE CLOUDS
ARE SEEN RADIATING OUTWARD FROM MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN UVALDE, KINNEY
AND MAVERICK COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE TEXTURE. MANUAL
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST 1-2"/HR RATES IN THESE AREAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BURSTS. IN GENERAL COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLOWLY
SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAST FEW HOURS AND THE EXPANSE OF THE ANVIL
TOP APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1345-1645Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR SOUTH TEXAS WHERE MCS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
TPW (1.75-2.0") LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THE MCS BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
INFLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SLOWLY DECREASE RAIN RATES. 1-2"/HR RATES
EXPECTED IN MOST ACTIVE AREAS... ESPECIALLY UVALDE, REAL, MAVERICK AND
ZAVALA COUNTIES.

[srainhoutx]

Looks promising via the 12Z WRF...

[srainhoutx]

Storm system W of San Antonio has been dumping a tremendous amount of rain. Uvalde down to Castroville appears to have had close to 5 inches of rain since 7 AM.

TXZ204-219-241630-
FRIO-MEDINA-
1047 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FRIO AND EASTERN MEDINA
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1042 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF
TARPLEY TO PEARSALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
DEVINE...
CASTROVILLE...
NEW FOUNTAIN...
MOORE...
QUIHI...
BIRY...
DUNLAY...
BADER...
MICO...
NOONAN...

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TXC463-241830-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130524T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UVALDE TX-
1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN UVALDE COUNTY...

AT 1117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT STEADY RAINFALL RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR OVER THE
WARNED AREA OF UVALDE COUNTY. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PROLONG
THE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE NUECES AND FRIO RIVERS AS WELL AS THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. RAINFALL REPORTS OVER UVALDE COUNTY WERE MAINLY IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...HIGHER TOTALS OF AROUND 4 AND 1/2
INCHES WERE REPORTED EARLIER OVER THE UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ALONG THE
FRIO AND NUECES RIVERS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE REAGAN WELLS...MONTELL...GARNER
STATE PARK AND CONCAN.

[Andrew]

Rain totals out west look impressive. Also interesting to note that rain chances may have to be raised locally as the shortwave/disturbance progresses west with more moisture than originally thought. Models usually have a hard time resolving these smaller situations farther than a couple of days out. It shows how much rain you can get when a MCV sets up. Something to watch through the weekend until we get into next week when things could get interesting farther north with a large trough (or cut off low) progressing south leeward of the Rockies. Still some model inconsistency with that system as the gfs, Euro, Nam and other models differ on how far south it progresses

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TXZ187-189-205-206-220-241800-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-COMAL-KENDALL-
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...COMAL...
EXTREME EASTERN BANDERA...BEXAR AND EASTERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL
100 PM CDT...

AT 1212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ATASCOSA TO BEXAR COUNTY THEN
NORTH TO KENDALL COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
UNIVERSAL CITY...
TERRELL HILLS...
GUADALUPE RIVER STATE PARK...
TIMBERWOOD PARK...
KENDALIA...
BULVERDE...
KIRBY...
WINDCREST...
CHINA GROVE...
SPRING BRANCH...

[TexasBreeze]

It does look like a decent chance of rain today. Peak heating later today and sea breeze and line of storms moving east could make things interesting later!

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

KENDALL-BEXAR-COMAL-
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL KENDALL COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN COMAL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO
METRO AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS SUGGEST THAT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR OVER THIS AREA BY
130 PM CDT.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX...SE TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241742Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN TX HILL
COUNTRY INTO S-CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BUT ISOLATED STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN LOW...PRECLUDING WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCV
CENTERED OVER THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BASED ON REGIONAL RADARS...EWD PROPAGATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS APPROXIMATELY ENE AT 20-25 KT...WHICH TAKES THE
LINE THROUGH MUCH OF S-CNTRL TX BY 21Z. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED PRIMARILY BY WEAK SHEAR. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
REVEALED WEAK...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SELY WINDS THROUGH 600 MB.
RECENT EWX AND CRP VWPS SHOW APPROXIMATELY 20 KT AND 10 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...CONTINUED PROPAGATION EWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE BUT ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZATION OR UPSCALE
GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS...THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS S-CNTRL TX AND SE TX IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE GREATER THAN
2000 J PER KG AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH WATER
LOADING AND SOME SMALL HAIL. LOW ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/24/2013


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY...
EAST CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY...
WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HEAVY
RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA...EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG I-35 AND TO NEAR
SEGUIN IN GUADALUPE COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
AROUND 530 PM CDT.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...DRIPPING SPRINGS...SAN MARCOS...SEGUIN...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...WIMBERLEY...BEE CAVE...BUDA...DRIFTWOOD...GERONIMO...
KYLE...LAGO VISTA...LAKEWAY...MANSFIELD DAM...MARTINDALE...
MCQUEENEY...ONION CREEK...ROLLINGWOOD...UHLAND...WEST LAKE HILLS...
WOODCREEK AND ZORN.

[texoz]

well, this is a pleasant surprise here in C. Texas. One of the few gully washers we've had in the last 6 months. This wasn't even on the forecast a couple of days ago. I guess when you have systems moving out of northern Mexico the predictability factor is not high?

[Portastorm]

Very heavy rains falling here in downtown Austin as we're under that FFW until 5:30 p.m. Also, media reports that a person was struck by lightning out at the airport. This really is welcomed and a bit surprising as less than 24 hours ago, we had little to no chance of rain today per NWS. These short waves which roll out of Mexico can be tricky for the models, especially with little to no upper air sampling for us.

[srainhoutx]

Congrats Central Texas folks. This rain was sorely needed for you guys.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TXZ191-192-208-242045-
CALDWELL-HAYS-TRAVIS-
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHERN
TRAVIS AND EASTERN HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UHLAND...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCKHART...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MUSTANG RIDGE...
KYLE...
BUDA...
ONION CREEK...
CREEDMOOR...
MOUNTAIN CITY...

[texoz]

Very heavy rains falling here in downtown Austin as we're under that FFW until 5:30 p.m. Also, media reports that a person was struck by lightning out at the airport. This really is welcomed and a bit surprising as less than 24 hours ago, we had little to no chance of rain today per NWS. These short waves which roll out of Mexico can be tricky for the models, especially with little to no upper air sampling for us.

definitely don't want injuries, and it's a bit nasty out there. wind & lightening seem to be on the increase. my kiddos are heading home from school in this and I'll be happy when they're home safe.

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see training cells S to N across San Antonio extending E in the Austin Metro. Seeing numerous reports of closed roads across the Hill Country. Water levels in creeks and streams will likely increase into the evening. Watch those low water crossings.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/24/13 2015Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-14: 2002ZBELGE
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF MCV
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MCV MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SRN
TX AND NEW CELLS WITH RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE NORTH AND EAST WITHIN GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS. MAIN UL SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION IS AN AREA OF UL DIVERGENCE ACROSS CNTRL TX PER LATEST
STLT DERIVED WIND DATA. THIS ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRNT DRAPED ACROSS
N/CNTRL TX WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS HELPING TO
INITIATE THIS CONVECTION. CELLS ARE TENDING TO BE RATHER SLOW MOVERS
ATTM AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING FROM SE TO NW WHICH IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE LL INFLOW. THIS LEADS TO A CONCERN FOR QUASI-STATIONARY AND
TRAINING CELLS FROM WILSON/GUADALUPE COUNTY NORTHWESTWARD INTO
HAYS/TRAVIS/BURNET/COMANCHE/EASTLAND COUNTIES. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE
APPROACHING -68C IN THESE CELLS AND MANUAL STLT ESTIMATES ARE GIVING
RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2"/HR.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2015-2330Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MOVING
ACROSS SRN TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HRS. RAINFALL WITHIN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HVY BUT OVERALL CELLS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE. BIGGEST CONCERN ATTM IS WITH NEW CELLS FIRING UP TO THE
NORTH WHERE TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THERE IS
ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR MERGING CELLS AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN QUICK
BURSTS OF VERY HVY RAINFALL. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUT
DOWN BY CELLS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN AND FURTHER DEVELOP NEW CELLS TO
THE N AND W AND OVERALL CONVECTION SHOULD GET ORGANIZED INTO MORE OF A
LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURE.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013


TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL HAVE FALLEN BY 5 PM CDT OVER WESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...AS
WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...ANDERSON MILL...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...CEDAR PARK...
GEORGETOWN...GRANGER...PFLUGERVILLE...ROUND ROCK...SERENADA...
TAYLOR AND WINDEMERE.

[tireman4]

I wonder if they will hold up to give us rain today and tonight. David Paul thinks so...(from his Facebook page)..

Heads up: Big thunderstorms in central Texas are moving our way. I expect a stormy evening and night. You goin' out tonight?

https://www.facebook.com/KHOUDavidPaul