April - Ends on Mild Note

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston/Galveston issues Flood Advisory for Austin, Harris & Waller Counties.

[unome]

we are loving this rain, they did also issue this

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ212-213-227-272000-
FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
221 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KATY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...BROOKSHIRE AND PATTISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

&&

LAT...LON 3013 9558 2981 9544 2976 9597 2981 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 243DEG 14KT 2986 9580

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Area has greatly moistened over the past 24 hours with muggy dewpoints in the 60’s and low 70’s. Weak short wave along with modest surface heating has ignited showers and thunderstorms this afternoon north of I-10 with fairly heavy thunderstorms ongoing over NW Harris County. This appears to be just the start of an active weather period over the next 24 hours which will hopefully bring welcomed rainfall to much of the area.

Weak cool front over C TX is drifting southward and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture (PWS 1.5-1.6 inches) and a stronger short wave tonight to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. Given the development this afternoon with a weak short wave than progged for the overnight period, think the area will see a decent shot at widespread rainfall tonight-early Sunday. The weak front will drift southward and act as a focus for thunderstorms tonight. CAPE is on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and while shear is in the modest 35-45kt range it is enough to help storms organize. Think additional storms will develop along the frontal boundary after dark from Del Rio to Lufkin and in the region of favorable lift. Not sure what to do with the ongoing current activity as meso models continue and even increase coverage over the next few hours and based on the radar trends this seems reasonable.

Short term models tonight develop a MCS out of NE MX and drive it toward the coastal bend while additional storms develop from College Station to Livingston and sag southward. Not sure how far NE the potential coastal bend MCS will reach as this will be a highly meso scale event. Radar trends will be very important in the overnight period. A few severe storms will be possible with gusty winds likely the main threat.

While moisture levels are not excessive, potentially slow storm motions and cell training could yield some high totals in a short period of time as currently noted over NW Harris County. Think most areas will see a solid 1-2 inches with isolated amounts greater than 3 inches possible. Will need to watch for any type of meso boundary developing from Harris County back WSW over the next few hours that could potentially keep storms going for the next several hours with little motion away from such a feature.

[srainhoutx]

Getiing some reports of near 2 inches of rainfall with training cells along Bear Creek S of FM 529 since 1:00 PM CDT.

[Ptarmigan]

Second Coldest Start To Spring In US History
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013 ... s-history/

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
308 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER
EXTREME WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL FALL BY 415 PM.

[mckinne63]

Just drizzle in Stafford, but the skies are becoming a bit noisy. Come on Rain! Bust that CAP!

[srainhoutx]

Pea sized hail reported by the public @ I-45 and FM 1488.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Spring Valley/Spring Branch heads up. Some minor rotation noted with cell traveling E along I-10 towards Houston.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ213-272115-
HARRIS TX-
335 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS STORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. JERSEY VILLAGE...ALDINE AND SPRING VILLAGE
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THE STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A
STORM SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR WEST HOUSTON AIRPORT AT
329 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...ALDINE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...HEDWIG VILLAGE AND HILSHIRE VILLAGE.

[ticka1]

thunder and lightning here....is this rain going to hang around for tomorrow?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO NRN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272036Z - 272200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO NRN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A ONE OR MORE WATCHES.
TRENDS WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COAHUILA
MEXICO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...IF ACTIVITY CAN REACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AREA OF S TX.

DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A FRONT
CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY E/SEWD ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL TX. AT
20Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SWWD TO 50 S
OF KCRS...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY OF WRN VAL VERDE COUNTY. A
MOIST/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN A PLUME OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST RECENT
STORMS COULD BE NEARLY SURFACE BASED IN WILLIAMSON AND TRAVIS
COUNTIES TX...GIVEN ITS LOCATION NEAR THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
LOCATED TO THE NW TO W OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NWWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO A MORE FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR
SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT COULD
RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT.

MEANWHILE...IF GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THUS...THE DISCUSSION AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF ONE OR MORE WATCHES.

..PETERS/HART.. 04/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[unome]

another special statement

oops - already posted, sry

[spadilly]

SupreRes velocity of the storm.

[srainhoutx]

thunder and lightning here....is this rain going to hang around for tomorrow?

We'll need to keep an eye to our W out near Del Rio as storms begin to develop later this evening. Any storms that develop will likely move E toward the Middle and Upper Texas Coast overnight into early tomorrow.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-282100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY
FROM THE CITY NORTH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE...OR EVOLVE...
OFF TO THE WEST AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING. THERE MAY ALSO BE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY MAY
STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

[unome]

update from HGX

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KHGX 272041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TRACKING A TRAINING LINE OF RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RAIN RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS
PUTTING DOWN HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR AMOUNTS...LOCALLY
OVER TWO INCHES PER HOUR...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARRIS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. WITH THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL FOCUS OFF TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THIS MORE-SOUTHERN
BASED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY GOT GOING DUE TO THE AREA BEING UNDER
BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH A VICINITY JET STREAK AND DECENT
DIFFULENCE PROVIDING THE NEEDED EXHAUST. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ADVANCING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO MAY ALSO BE NOSING INTO SE
TX AND PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL LIFT REQUIRED TO INITIATE...OR KEEP
THIS...ONGOING ACTIVITY ALIVE GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LIKELY INLAND POPS WILL TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT...WITH MORE MODERATE...
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT. FEELING IS THAT
CENTRAL CWA AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WORKED OVER AND TAKE TIME TO
RE-CHARGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT RIPPLE HEADING EAST WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. HIGHER OVERNIGHT POPS MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THIS NEAR-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYING JUST ALONG AND EAST
OF THE ESCARPMENT. TOMORROW`S POPS BASED SOLELY UPON THE ATTEMPT
TO TIME THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THE ELEMENTS THAT INTRODUCED PRECIPITATION/STORMS TODAY WILL
PLAY OUT AGAIN SUNDAY...AMPLE UPPER LIFT WITHIN A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR THE REGENERATION OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY. OF COURSE...THERE WILL BE AN EARLY DAY
CAP TO CONTEND WITH AND THIS WILL ALWAYS BE THE DISCLAIMER THAT
LEADS TO THE LOWER POP ARGUMENT. EITHER WAY...OVERCAST AND WARM
WITH PERIODIC RAIN/THUNDER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...OR WHEN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

A FEW DAYS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE WARMTH/VERY
MILD OVERNIGHTS...BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLIES. THE MAIN STORY
FOR NEXT WEEK STILL CENTERS AROUND AN EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. NWP MODEL ENSEMBLE ALL AGREE THAT THE BACKING AIR
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DRY. AS OF NOW...WITH THE 85H ZERO
LINE TO THE COAST (PER GFS)...IT WOULD BE SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW EARLY MAY MIN TEMP
(OR MIN MAX TEMP) RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF RAIN LEADING/ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ITS AGGRESSIVE SOUTHEASTERN
PUSH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A MODEST CHANCE THAT THIS TYPE OF
FORCING COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-CELLUAR THIN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST CALLS FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP/MOISTURE
BEHAVIOR FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 83 61 82 62 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 82 62 81 61 / 40 50 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 66 76 67 / 30 30 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ172-173-192-272145-
BURNET-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
355 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 354 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SMITHWICK...OR 8 MILES EAST OF MARBLE
FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
CEDAR PARK...
SERENADA...
GEORGETOWN...
TAYLOR...
OATMEAL...
LIBERTY HILL...
LEANDER...
ANDICE...
SUN CITY...
GEORGETOWN DAM...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

Reports of pea sized hail @ West Belt & I-10. Also reports of winds gusting to 50 mph.

[C2G]

Looks as if some of the rain is starting to head south, southeast.

[Andrew]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-201-272145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0033.130427T2110Z-130427T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
410 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 401 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHSIDE PLACE...OR
1 MILES SOUTH OF WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOUSTON...PEARLAND...CLOVERLEAF...BELLAIRE...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE
AND SOUTHSIDE PLACE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 9511 2953 9526 2967 9554 2980 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 294DEG 20KT 2969 9543

$$

DR