April - Ends on Mild Note

[Ptarmigan]

Storms have formed along the coast. They are slowly moving northward.

[Paul Robison]

How do things look for severe weather during the overnight period? Any heavy rain/dangerous lightning on tap?

[srainhoutx]

Not much in the way of significant rain or storms across the Region except for some isolated chances as the warm front lifts N tomorrow. Warmer temps with clouds and isolated rain chances as weak disturbances travel W to E in a somewhat zonal flow for the weekend. The next chance of slightly better chances of rain don't look likely until next Wednesday or the 1st of May when yet another unseasonably strong cold front makes its way S dropping temps below normal once again and a NW flow aloft returns. Still no sign of any big warm up ahead in the extended range suggesting our unusually mild Spring continues as we start a new month.

[Kludge]

I feel confident that I can now answer the topic question, "April - Wet month ahead?"

I guess we could try to undo the jinx by titling the next one "May - Hell Drought Continues?"

[jasons2k]

I'm sitting at 3.69" for the month.

It's pretty representative of the last year or so: it isn't bad sounding...until you discover that 75% of it all fell in one day.

[Paul Robison]

Not much in the way of significant rain or storms across the Region except for some isolated chances as the warm front lifts N tomorrow. Warmer temps with clouds and isolated rain chances as weak disturbances travel W to E in a somewhat zonal flow for the weekend. The next chance of slightly better chances of rain don't look likely until next Wednesday or the 1st of May when yet another unseasonably strong cold front makes its way S dropping temps below normal once again and a NW flow aloft returns. Still no sign of any big warm up ahead in the extended range suggesting our unusually mild Spring continues as we start a new month.

What do you make of this little tidbit from TWC, srainhoutx?

[Katdaddy]

Slight chance of showers today and perhaps some partly sunny skies at times. Mostly cloudy but warm weekend as front stalls N of Houston. Thunderstorms possible Saturday night and Sunday with some being strong. Next week models indicate another strong cold front next Thursday with record lows again possible Friday morning. In additon the European model (ECMWF) develops a sub-tropical low in the NE GOM and pushes it into the SE Atl. Take away from the extended....Winter wont leave and the 2013 hurricane season starts in 35 days.

[unome]

it appears that the small image on that page ( http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-cen ... acker-page ) doesn't have the same severe coverage as the expanded graphic - me thinks someone messed up

What do you make of this little tidbit from TWC, srainhoutx?

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z 4KM HIRES NAM meso model is suggesting storms may fire across Central and SE Texas along a stalled frontal boundary Saturday evening into Sunday possibly bringing some wet weather for the last weekend of April.

[wxman666]

The 06Z 4KM HIRES NAM meso model is suggesting storms may fire across Central and SE Texas along a stalled frontal boundary Saturday evening into Sunday possibly bringing some wet weather for the last weekend of April.

I'm likin' the NAM!

[wxman57]

Latest (12Z) NAM has minimal precip for Houston this weekend. Heavier precip stays well to our north.

[Paul Robison]

Have problem I would like someone to sort out.

HGX:

MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER
STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. STILL ANTICIPATING GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE STILL
LOOKING LIKE SOME TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY (MAYBE INTO
MONDAY TOO?) AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE SETS UP. IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT...
SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND ANY
TRAINING THAT SETS UP COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY A LOW CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY MAY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OFF TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
IF EVERYTHING SETS UP RIGHT...THE AREA COULD SEE NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY MORNING. 42

Here's SPC's diagram:



Note that we seem to be just barely in the 5th percentile. So what's the worry? Would somebody please tell me what part of the city stands to see this "severe weather?" North of I-10 or south of I-10

[Ptarmigan]

New NAM is dry locally.


Back to looking at Grumpy Cat on Facebook...

I do not put stock on NAM.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the area to watch for any stronger storms later today will be from Del Rio across the Hill Country into the Arklatex Region along the sagging frontal boundary. What those areas will need to monitor is the potential for training storms and very heavy rainfall totals should that training of storms begin to unfold. These areas could use a good rainfall but are prone to flash flooding, so keep an eye out later today into tonight in those areas.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM SW TX TO NW MS/SW TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SE KS...AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL/ERN OK...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY
REGIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IN SE OK WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG A PRE-EXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. A SWATH OF
MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LA
AND SRN/ERN TX. THIS MOIST SECTOR WILL EXPAND TODAY ACROSS SE
AR/NRN MS/NW AL AND WRN/MIDDLE TN...IMMEDIATELY S OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

...SE AR/NW MS/SW TN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE BY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE S/SW.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS...AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS EWD FROM OK TO AR. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS
WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A BAND OF STORMS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...SOME ENHANCEMENT TO HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND RESULTANT
EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ERN AR INTO NW MS/SW TN.

...TX BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 68-70 F RANGE HAVE OVERSPREAD S AND
SE TX THIS MORNING...BENEATH A RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME. THOUGH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL PROGRESS AWAY FROM
THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...A BAND OF 30-40 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST INVOF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL TX.
THUS...THE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS AS STORMS FORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM SW INTO CENTRAL TX...AS WELL AS
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NE MEXICO. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK INITIALLY WITH SPLITTING STORMS. OUTFLOW MERGERS AND UPSCALE
GROWTH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD INTO S TX
BEFORE WEAKENING.

...E TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE WILL POTENTIALLY REACH 2500 J/KG WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...AND
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TO
WARRANT EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO THIS AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/27/2013

[srainhoutx]

The latest 12Z meso guidance as well as the GFS are a bit more suggestive of rainfall for areas S of the I-35 Corridor. In fact the RAP/NAM WRF and GFS are focusing the slowly sagging boundary a bit closer to SE Texas this afternoon and evening. Streamer showers are developing now in NW Harris County and the guidance also is suggesting the cap will erode increasing the potential for stronger storms closer to the I-10 Corridor and Metro Houston. We will see.

[jasons2k]

Finally, some good news!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ELEMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP THAT LEAN TOWARDS A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON RAIN AND THUNDER. RECENT
MODELS ARE COMING IN MORE WET...WITH BETTER MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OVER EASTERN TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY NOW NESTLING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
MAY SAG INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TO PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FOCUS AS EARLY PM TEMEPRATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. MOISTURE
IS NOT A PROBLEM WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 75 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
LATE APRIL. SHORT TERM MODELS (RAP AND NAM) MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING
AS LOCAL TERMINAL DOPPLERS ARE DISPLAYING INCREASING -SHRA COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. PROG SOUNDINGS DO ERODE THIS MORNING`S
9-7H CAP...WITH SOME 12Z JET LEVEL DIFFULENCE NOTED AT 3OO MB
(TEXAS LAYING BETWEEN SOUTHERN POLAR BRANCH AND STJ). COMBINE ALL
OF THESE CHARACTERISTICS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHERN MEXICO JET STREAK AND YOU HAVE A
STRONGER CASE FOR INCREASING OVERALL (SHORT TERM) POPS.

[srainhoutx]

^^

Looks like the cap is eroding, Jason. Showers are increasing along a Southern Austin to Liberty County line and on S of the 1-10 Corridor.

[Ptarmigan]

That is fine. I was raised in Texas. Texas City, Texas is the place of my birth. As a runner, I do like the cold. The heat just wears me out and by August I am nearly exhausted. We do agree to disagree. Trust me, you will get your warmth. Even the coldest Summers we have experienced (1976 comes to mind) had warm days to them.

1976 had one 100 degree day on August 7, 1976. There have been summers without 100 degree days. That last happened in 1997.

See I was right....and to prove my point on 1976 ( and the winter was really cold too)

Winter of 1976:

January 1976: Not ranked, but January 1977 was the second coolest January of all time
Febuary 1976: Not ranked

Spring 1976:

March 1976: Not ranked
April 1976: Not ranked
May 1976 was 70.5 which is the coolest May of all time


Summer of 1976:

June 1976 was 78.4 which is the fifth coolest June of all time
July 1976 was 80.5 which is the fourth coolest July of all time
September 1976 was 76.2 which is the eighth coolest September of all time

Fall of 1976:

October was 60.6 which is the coolest October of all time
November was 51.8 which is the coolest November of all time
December was 49.2 which is the fifth coolest December of all time

Coolest years of all time:

1976: 65.8 degrees.


Now Ptarmigan has way more stats than I do. So, to really get down to the nitty gritty, you have to ask him. He is a whiz at those things. Could we be reverting back the mid 1970's as far as cool? Who knows. Just some grist for the gristmill.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_annual

March to April 1976 was warm prior to May 1976. In fact, compared to right now to 1976, we are much cooler.

[ticka1]

what is the weather looking like foe east side of houston on sunday? the nhra races are here this weekend today it has been a light misty rain enough to get everything wet.....

[srainhoutx]

New SWODY1 seems to have more of the HGX CWA in the Slight Risk area. And, as seen on radar, there are showers out there, eyeballing on the drive in, they are from cumiliform clouds, but probably not breaking the cap yet. But lots of breaks of Sun.

Cap has eroded. Getting mighty dark in NW Harris County with the first claps of thunder...