March - Slow Warming Trend With Rain Chance This Weekend?

[srainhoutx]

The morning forecast analysis show a frontal boundary stalled just N of Houston with temps in the upper 60's to low 70's S of the front and mid 50's in College Station as of this hour. A deepening surface low currently over the Iintermaointain West will drive a strong push of cold air further S today and overnight bringing an end to the Spring like weather with much colder temps and very low dew points and very gusty winds on Sunday across the entire region. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are already hoisted along Gale Warnings for coastal waters as the strong Canadian Front will push well out into the Gulf tomorrow morning.

Areas S of the front remain capped with a W zonal flow aloft while strong to severe storms may develop later today
N and E of Houston into Louisiana as the upper trough begin to approach. The SPC has a Slight Risk issued for the above mentioned areas. There may be a a chance of over running moisture tomorrow with strong cold air advection making for a chilly raw day where temps may struggle to get out of the 50's to the S and upper 40's further N.

The week ahead begins very chilly with morning lows near or below freezing N of the first couple of Coastal tier Counties. A gradual warm up will begin by later next week as we near the long Easter weekend and the month of April.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THOUGH TONIGHT FROM N/NE TX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
PROGRESS EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN ENEWD
INTO SRN LA...AND THEN ESEWD JUST OFF THE NE GULF COAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MS/AL/N FL/SW GA...IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS BY TONIGHT
ACROSS NRN MS/NW AL/WRN TN IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...N TX EWD TO NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS TODAY...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IN N TX IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO SAG SEWD
ACROSS S CENTRAL TX AND THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND RICH MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW
COOL AIR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ROOTED NEAR
850 MB. THIS CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL TO
THE N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE HAIL RISK WILL BE ENHANCED BY
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS A RESULT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AOA 50 KT IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY WHERE
CONVECTION IS ROOTED CLOSER TO THE GROUND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS NRN LA INTO W CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON.

[unome]

I can tell there's some new pollen in the air with the change in wind

http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=31. ... TS=&f100=F

http://hint.fm/wind/

sort of surpised fwd doesn't have radar on their home page http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/
(added after I posted: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning )

[jasons2k]

You can see the front on GRLevel2. It just crossed the south loop (610) and it's still slowly moving southeast. I also have some pretty stiff NE winds up here. I wonder if this will help mix things up a bit more this afternoon if the front is still draped across the Houston area.

[Paul Robison]

RE: sunday's strong winds:

Will the expected wind guns of 20-25 mph (30mph gusts) cause houstonians to experience something like THIS:

from KXAN Austin:"

Winds cancel flights, raise fire scare

Power outages, damages also result from gusts

Updated: Monday, 25 Feb 2013, 7:04 PM CST
Published : Monday, 25 Feb 2013, 1:09 PM CST
John Moritz



AUSTIN (KXAN) - High winds on Monday played havoc with airline schedules, knocked out power to tens of thousands of electric customers, fouled traffic signals and fueled a mulch fire Southeast Austin that crews worked feverishly to keep from spreading.

Jason Hill, a spokesman for Austin Water Utility, said piles of mulch caught fire at the city's Hornsby Plant near Austin Bergstrom International Airport, sending flames and smoke high enough into the air so that it could be seen for several miles.

Dozens of people reported downed trees, damaged roofs, power failures in stores and even bricks being torn from the wall of a North Austin building. At least three big rigs on the State Highway 130 toll roads were blown over by the gusts, some of which reached more than 50 mph. No injuries were reported.

And the winds that whipped the flames forced the airport to cancel at least 14 flights on Monday and two more were likely to be canceled on Tuesday. The high wind advisory in effect for Central Texas through much of the day was extended until 4 a.m.
• Photos: Winds wreak havoc on Central Texas

Power outages forced all activities scheduled to take place at Austin school district's Burger Stadium and Nelson Field to be canceled on Monday.

High winds cancel flights out of ABIA
Airport spokesman Jason Zeilinski said Monday's cancellations were all American Airlines flights, five of them departures to Dallas/Fort Worth Airport. Two other departures were called off as were seven incoming flights, Zeilinski said.

Both flights canceled flights on Tuesday were to D/FW where winds were also causing major problems.

Thousands were without power Monday
Winds in and around Austin caused a variety of headaches, including causing damages to buildings and power outages.

An estimated 18,000 Austin Energy customers were without power because of the strong winds, said spokesman Ed Clark. He said winds caused the downing of trees, power lines and even a few power poles. By 6 p.m., the number of Austin customers without power was down to about 5,000.

The largest outages affected about 1,860 customers in the West Howard Lane/Wells Branch area. In the area around Red River and 26th street, more than 1,000 were without power and 1,000 others in the North Lamar and Airport boulevards were in the dark.

"Repairs to those areas are currently projected to be completed by mid-evening at the latest barring any additional difficulties due to windy conditions, which continue," AE said.

The city-owned utility estimated that repairs are needed at about 150 locations. It had 20 repair crews in service as well as a half dozen tree trimming crews. A mature oak crashed into the street on San Gabriel in the West Campus section of Austin.

"Customers who experience an outage are asked to call 322-9100," Clark said in a statement. "That telephone number is the fastest way to get your outage communicated. And all customers experiencing an outage are encouraged to call.

"This puts more addresses into the outage system which helps the system better identify the piece of equipment of power line that has a problem. Austin Energy crews will work non-stop until power has been restored to all customers.

As the afternoon rush hour approached, the city of Austin's traffic department put out word that the signals at some 13 intersections were malfunctioning.

"The Transportation Department will work with the Police Department to provide traffic control if necessary, " the department said. "Most signals have back-up generators that will provide service for up to six hours. After six hours the signal will begin flashing and function similar to a stop sign. Residents are asked to call 3-1-1 to report any signal outages."

Meanwhile as many as 3,000 customers in the Pedernales Electric Cooperative in the Blanco, Wimberley, Buda areas were without power on Monday. Co-op spokeswoman Anne Harvey said it appeared the wind was playing havoc with power lines. By about 3:30 a.m., power was restored to the northern section of Blanco and to Buda.

Crews were working to restore power in the rest of the region, Harvey said.

More damage reported due to high winds in the region
A hangar was reported destroyed at the Georgetown Municipal Airport and the roof was blown off the Creedmore Country Store in Travis County.

In North Austin, meanwhile, strong winds ripped a brick veneer from the side of a building near Burnet Road on Monday, but no one was hurt when the wall came tumbling down.

Crews on the scene said the brick facade came down in two sections from the building at 9415 Burnet Road. No structural damage was apparent, but businesses in the the building were closed while code compliance officials inspected the damage.

Several people from across the region submitted reports of roof damage, including a Walmart off Ranch Road 620 and on homes in the Leander area.

Who posted this, BTW?

[Belmer]

Paul,

I posted that image a few weeks ago back when we had those tropical storm force winds. That is a tree that fell near one of the college buildings on my campus.

[jasons2k]

NWS calling for 32 at my location tomorrow night. Wow...

[srainhoutx]

The overnight global ensemble mean do suggest a bit more suppressed storm track with a closed cold core low moving inland along the California Coast next weekend. As the blocking pattern relaxes and the NW Gulf opens up mid to late next week, there are indications that the time frame near April 1st, +/- a day or two may well be the best chance for a severe episode and rainfall for Texas/Oklahoma. Of course we’ll need to keep an eye on capping issues and April will be another Topic. We will see.

Euro Ensembles:

GEFS:

NAEFS:

GGEM:

[jasons2k]

Tidbit on climate from this afternoon's NWS AFD:

.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW FOR CLL FOR TONIGHT IS 33 DEGREES BACK IN 1955 SO
IF THE FCST LOW OF 32 DEGREES IS CORRECT...A NEW RECORD WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR IAH. THE RECORD LOW FOR IAH IS 36
DEGREES BACK IN 2006. CURRENTLY FCSTING A LOW OF 35 DEGREES FOR
HOUSTON.

RAIN CONTINUES TO BYPASS SE TX AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND INTENSIFY. A DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL PROBABLY BE
PREPARED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK DETAILING SOME OF THE ISSUES.
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF HOUSTON APPEAR TO BEARING THE BRUNT OF
THE DRY WEATHER. HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
SINCE JAN 15 2013:

LOCATION RAINFALL
1/15 - 2/24

ANGLETON 1.56
PALACIOS 1.67
WHARTON 1.71
COLUMBUS 1.83
RICHMOND 2.00
HOU HOBBY 2.27
SUGARLAND 2.39
GALVESTON 2.64

[srainhoutx]

It appears everyone in SE Texas escaped the freezing mark as winds stayed up overnight just a bit. We did have some patchy frost up here in NW Harris County on the roof tops, but tonight may be a different story as the cold ridge of high pressure is overhead and no wind will be a perfect set up for radiational cooling. Fingers crossed that the end of the week can bring an increase in rain chances, but my hunch is the better chances will come near April 1-2 except for areas of W Texas and Oklahoma that may get in on some severe action over the coming weekend. Areas further E may do a bit better as the main upper low/trough expected to move inland late next weekend in California begins to slide E.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Big cold front that roared off the coast early Sunday has brought an unseasonably cold and dry air mass to the region.

High pressure over the central plains will continue to sink southward today with cold air advection ongoing. 850mb 0C line reaches near the coast by 600pm this evening and while the sun angle is increasingly high now and the days are longer…looks like we will struggle to reach the mid to upper 50’s.

Bigger concern is tonight with surface high pressure nearly overhead and a very dry air mass in place. Expecting near excellent cooling conditions under clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints (20’s). Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on forecasted lows in the low to mid 30’s across much of the region. While this would typically not be of much concern, the fact that the spring green up is well underway and many have already planted sensitive vegetation brings importance to the forecasted low for Tuesday morning. Current thinking is that many areas outside of the urban heat cores will drop to near or slightly below freezing on Tuesday morning. Lows should range from 30-35 across most of the area. The duration of freezing/subfreezing temperatures will be around 1-3 hours for most areas, although a few northern counties could see the duration closer to 3-5 hours. Sensitive vegetation should be protected!

Still cold on Tuesday as NE winds and high pressure remain in control. Surface high should be pulling east of the region overnight Tuesday and expect very weak onshore winds to return to the area early Wednesday morning. This may stop a widespread secondary freeze for Wednesday morning. Guidance is currently suggesting lows in the upper 30’s and this seems reasonable, but areas NE of a line from Liberty to Huntsville could drop to near freezing again Wednesday morning.

Surface high pressure moves eastward on Wednesday with sustained onshore flow developing across the region. Upper level flow begins to transition toward a large scale trough over the SW US which brings an extended period of SW upper level flow into TX. Increasing SE winds at the surface will pump Gulf moisture into the state and this will combine with periodic disturbances aloft to produce the potential for a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms from Friday-next weekend. Current thinking is that most activity may be just north of SE TX across N TX into OK where some severe weather appears at least possible. Southward we will have to deal with the ever present capping concerns which so far this year has shut down rainfall across the southern ½ of the state. Still plenty of time to watch, but we are once again in need of rainfall as 2013 is starting to play out much like the start of the great drought of 2011. Most of the area is now back into Moderate to Severe Drought with even Extreme Drought showing up across nearly all of Washington County. This has been a significant degradation over the past few weeks due to the overall lack of wetting rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

The temperature departures ~vs~ normal across our Region are running anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. That was an impressive late season cold front with out a doubt.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF
A MADISONVILLE TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE...

.CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE WARNING AREA.

TXZ163-164-176>179-198-199-261300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0001.130326T0500Z-130326T1300Z/
GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WILLIS
322 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CDT TUESDAY.

* EVENT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE.

* IMPACT...THE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
PLANTS AND VEGETATION THAT MAY HAVE BEEN PLANTED DURING SOME
EARLIER WARM WEATHER.

[relic57]

A little off topic, but I thought some might be curious about the large smoke plume NE of town.

http://www.khou.com/video?id=199911151& ... f=rcvidmod

[jasons2k]

Freeze warning in place during last week of March - check
Drought expands to severe drought conditions - check
Relentless dry north winds continue - check

Welcome to the new normal of Houston weather.

[srainhoutx]

A slow warming trend begins today and will continue in earnest tomorrow as a split zonal flow develops and the cold high pressure that brought our chilly temps slides off to the E. Easterly winds will turn SE off the Gulf and bring higher dew points and more humidity as the last week of March ends. There appears to a be a disturbance sliding across N Mexico as the long Easter weekend nears that may bring an increase of showers/storms chances Saturday into Sunday. The first few days of April look to offer a better chance of rainfall with the possibility of increased showers and storms, some possibly severe as a upper low moves inland into California and takes a more suppressed track and works with a developing dry line across W Texas. The first couple of days of April could be rather stormy for our Region and may offer the best chance we’ve seen in a long time for any meaningful rainfall. But that is still a week out and another month as well as another Topic. Fingers Crossed!

[jasons2k]

Someone posted earlier to look for this weekend's rain chances to get lower, and they were right judging by this afternoon's AFD. Yeah, I think "depression" is a good word at this point. Maybe total dispair? Can't quite describe it when you think you just can't take any more, and yet it continues to pile and pile. And just when you think there might be some relief....more piling. Ugh. It's long-gone-beyond 'crying uncle' at this point. Is there even a word for that?

OH, I thought of one: relocation.

I'm starting to consider that option.

[srainhoutx]

We have the coldest morning of the week here in NW Harris County where the temp has dropped to 33F. When all is said and done I suspect the temp departures for IAH may well reach-2 or even a bit lower making March 2013 one of the 'coldest' March on record with departures running -10F to -20F below normal. The couple of days when we reached the 80's and even 91F saved us from much lower temp departures below normal. The recording breaking -AO and extreme blocking pattern over the N Atlantic certainly brought a very unseasonably cold weather pattern across our Region and much of the Eastern 2/3rd of the US. The warm up should begin in earnest today as we warm to the upper 60's...if you call that warm...