April Weather Discussion.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit closer...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
444 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

TXC149-285-162330-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0045.100416T2144Z-100416T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE-LAVACA-
444 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
FAYETTE COUNTY...
LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TRAINING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED
THAT THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS FROM HALLETTSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FREYBURG AND MULDOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...FLATONIA...
HALLETTSVILLE...LA GRANGE...MOULTON...SCHULENBURG...SHINER...
CISTERN...EZZELL...FAYETTEVILLE AND MULDOON.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice some storms creeping towards us. Looks like that storm from last night which dumped up to 15 inches of rain south of San Antonio.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/16/10 2250Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2232Z JJ/MR
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPAWN HEAVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN MORE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH A RECENT TREND
OF SHIFTING THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE COPIOUS AS EVIDENT WITH NEAR 2.O" PWS JUST SE OFF THE
COAST. CELL MERGERS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A
MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE OVER WILLACY COUNTY WHICH HAS TRENDED SOUTH
SHOWED 1.5"/30MIN RAIN RATES. WITH THE CONTINUED CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING
OVER THIS REGION AREAS IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION COULD SEE 2-3"/HR
RATES WITH THE OVERALL TREND FOR THIS CONVECTIVE AREA TO SHIFT MORE TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME. FURTHER NORTH CONVECTION AROUND VICTORIA COUNTY HAS
TRENDED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE SHOWED .6-.7"/30
MIN RAIN RATES. THE REGION FROM VICTORIA POINTS NORTHEASTWARD COULD SEE
RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Ptarmigan]

Should be an interesting night.

[wxdata]

Recent radar trends over SE TX show most of the rain on the decrease tonight.

0z NAM continues to show rain chances <30% through the weekend (for Houston metro area.)

0z GFS still much wetter.

[srainhoutx]

We will need to keep an eye on the Meso Low near San Antonio. It appears that the energy is moving E toward La Grange (this afternoon's stopping point for the MS 150) and our western areas for later in the day. 06Z WRF Radar Sim suggests a rather wet day and tomorrow...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_6z/jloop.html

[biggerbyte]

It is going to get nasty around here, folks. Nothing has changed. We are still on target for some moderate rainfall over the next couple of days. Don't expect what they got out west, though. Not quite, at least.

Do your yard work on Saturday. Even still, pray you don't get wet.

BB

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/17/10 1415Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1400Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN HIGH MOISTURE AREAS...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION HELPING ALONG WITH MOIST TRANSPORT...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BEST COOLING AND MESO TO MICROSCALE
CIRCULATION WITH -64C CLOUD TOP CENTERED BEXAR COUNTY. THIS ON WESTERN
EDGE OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AT 1.5". BUT MORE IMPORTANT IS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STILL VERY GOOD AND REPLENISHING HVY RAINFALL THAT FALLS
AND HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CELLS TO THE WEST FEEDING IN. ONLY A
LITTLE BACKBUILDING SEEN...MORE MID/HIGH LEVEL FEEDING IN AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ALSO EYEING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DANCING AROUND THE ATASCOSA-LIVE
OAK-MCMULLEN COUNTY AREA WITH ATASCOSA-LIVE OAK COUNTY COOLING MOST
DOMINANT RIGHT NOW AND A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY FEEDING IN FROM W/NW.
.
SEE ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC IN 10 MINUTES ON HOME PAGE ADDRESS
BELOW...WILL NOT SEND SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES BUT MAX AMOUNTS PAST
3HRS ALMOST 2" IN BEXAR COUNTY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 14-17Z....EXPECT BEXAR COUNTY TO GET THE MOST
RAINFALL WITH ORGANIZED MESO CIRCULATION AND MOVING LITTLE WITH FEED
IN FROM THE WEST AND DEEP MOISTURE BEING REPLENISHED FROM THE S/SE.
CLUSTERS ALSO COULD CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM NEXT FEW HRS ATASCOSA TO
LIVE OAK AND COULD BUILD BACK INTO MCMULLEN.

[wxdata]

HPC- rains shift eastward into SE TX Sunday

[wxdata]

NWS out of San Antonio-

"HEAVIEST RAINS CONTINUING BETWEEN SEA WORLD AND HELOTES NEAR 1604 WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY BUT VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AND THIS IS A CONCERN...WHILE HEAVY RAINS OVER STONE OAK AREA NOW SHIFTING EAST. CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED/INTENSE SE-E OF SAN ANTONIO BUT MOVING NEWD AT GOOD CLIP. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT AREA FROM SAT-AUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TRAINING CELLS AND ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS."

NWS out of Houston-

"EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL ON SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME."

[wxdata]

12z NAM finally catching on to rain chances Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

Another Update from Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/17/10 1718Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1700Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...S CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MAIN CONVECTIVE CELLS WEAKING...BUT OUTFLOWS STILL PROVIDING
ENERGY FOR ISOLATED HVY RAIN BURSTS...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MESO OR MICRO SCALE CYCLONE SHOWED
WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LOWERING RAIN RATES AS IT HEADS EAST...BUT
OUTFLOW STILL ALLOWING FOR COOLING TOPS WEST AND SW. ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE CELLS CAN ADD TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM MORNING RAINS.
COOLING TOP N-S LINE FRIO TO LASALLE SHOULD PASS SOUTH IN THE NEXT 3HRS.
BUT IT COULD ALSO SLAM INTO OUTFLOW TO SOUTH OF WEAKENING MESO CYCLONE
AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THOSE OUTFLOW CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA AND IF THAT
HAPPENS WOULD HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR AREAS THAT GOT HVY RAIN EARLIER...IE
MCMULLEN AND N LIVE OAK. MOISTURE PWAT PLUME LOSING A BIT OF ITS PUNCH
BUT STILL THE MOISTURE NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO REPEAT NATURE OF
CELLS...SLOW MOVEMENT...SATURATED SOIL INCRD VARIABLES THAN HIGHER PWAT
FOR ANY ISOLATED FF NEXT 3-4HRS.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 171838Z - 172145Z

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER OUTLINED PARTS OF S TX -- PRIMARILY NEAR
BOUNDARIES AS DETAILED BELOW -- IS FCST TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON IN
HEAVIEST CORES AND ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED RATES IN 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
RANGE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF MOISTURE-RICH INFLOW LAYER. SLOW
TSTM MOVEMENT AND LIKELIHOOD OF CELL MERGERS WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LOCALLY. SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS KENEDY/KLEBERG COUNTIES NEWD
ACROSS REFUGIO COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL INLAND DRIFT LIKELY NEXT 2-3
HOURS. NEAR CRP...SEA BREEZE INTERSECTS SFC CONFLUENCE LINE THAT
EXTENDS NWWD ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST W OF I-37 INTO ATASCOSA
COUNTY...WHERE ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT SWWD THROUGH COT-LRD
AREAS. INLAND BOUNDARIES...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER MESOSCALE REGIME
OF DEEP ASCENT LOCATED SSE OF UPPER LOW OVER NW TX...ARE
QUASISTATIONARY ATTM BUT MAY BE SHIFTED BY OUTFLOWS AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING BETWEEN
INLAND BOUNDARIES OVER ATASCOSA/LASALLE/MCMULLEN COUNTIES...AND
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THAT AREA AND EWD INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
ENVIRONMENT OF NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. SFC HEATING ALREADY HAS OFFSET
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ENOUGH TO BOOST MLCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
GPS DATA...MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1.25-1.5 INCH PW WITH HIGH RH THROUGH LOWEST 200-300 MB
AGL...AVAILABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION IN DEEPENING
CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2010


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[wxdata]

SPC update for Sunday:

A SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER N
TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO E TX. A TRAILING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO E TX...WITH THE SRN EXTENT TRACKING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SRN TX. A PW PLUME AOA 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS ERN TX AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 306 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BLUNTZER...
OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUNTZER...
SAN PATRICIO...

[wxdata]

Interesting: Tornado warning for a thunderstorm near Corpus Christi.

Attached image: Base velocity 3D cross section of the storm near Corpus, clearing pointing out possible rotation in the cloud.

Time of image 3:25pm

CRP issues Tornado Warning for Jim Wells, Nueces [TX] till 4:30 PM CDT ...* AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BANQUETE... OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DRISCOLL...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting discussion from HGX...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SE TX TONIGHT INTO SUN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NONE OF THE MODELS REALLY GO CRAZY WITH
PRECIP SO IT IS HARD TO KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST. STILL
GIVEN THE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND S TX...WILL KEEP POPS
ON THE HIGH SIDE BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOISTURE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES PW STILL SUPPORT
THIS THREAT AND FORCING AT BOTH ALOFT AND SFC SHOULD SHIFT EAST
INTO SE TX FOR SUN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
FEATURE COMING INTO W TX AND THINK THIS MAY HELP PUSH THE WHOLE
SYSTEM EAST TOMORROW. THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT RESOLVE THIS
FEATURE PARTICULARLY WELL SO REALLY DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
THE IDEA OF LOWER POPS AS THE NAM/GFS ADVERTISE. THE 12Z ECMWF
HINTS AT MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA BUT THE CANADIAN
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS. WITH THE FORECAST ALREADY CARRYING 70
POPS...TRIED TO RE-ALIGN WHERE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR
FOR SE TX. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER HAVE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OR AN AREA MAY GET HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
DUE TO MESOSCALE FORCING THAT EVEN THIS FAR OUT MAY NOT BE
FORECASTED.

[wxdata]

Possible hook echo south of Agua Dulce (west of Corpus Christi) at 3:55pm.

[svrwx0503]

0339 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SE AGUA DULCE 27.73N 97.85W
04/17/2010 NUECES TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ROTATING WALL CLOUD PRODUCED A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FM 665 AND FM 666.

0409 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 S AGUA DULCE 27.67N 97.91W
04/17/2010 NUECES TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WALL CLOUD AND FUNNEL CLOUD 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF BISHOP.

[wxdata]

(at 4:50pm)

[Corpus Christi NWS] Storm northwest of Kingsville continues to produce rotation. Spotters have reported multiple funnels with this storms as well.

A touchdown!

CRP continues Tornado Warning for Kleberg [TX] till 6:00 PM CDT ...AT 513 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 7 MILES WEST OF KINGSVILLE. THE TORNADO HAS SINCE LIFTED BUT CAN TOUCH DOWN AGAIN AT ANY MOMENT. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF KINGSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.