This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled.
ENSO Updates
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 have warmed, while Region 4 has cooled.
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 have warmed, while Region 4 has cooled.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed up, while 4 remains the same.
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed up, while 4 remains the same.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 March 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
During February 2013, ENSO-neutral continued although SSTs remained below average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño 3.4 index remained near -0.5oC, while the Niño 3 index became less negative as the month progressed (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) similarly increased during the month (Fig. 3), largely due to the eastward push of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) again contributed to increased atmospheric variability over the tropical Pacific during February. Anomalous low-level winds were primarily easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds remained near average, but with some intra-monthly variability. Over Indonesia, anomalous convection remained enhanced north of the equator and suppressed south of the equator (Fig. 5). Due to the lack of persistent atmosphere-ocean coupling, the tropical Pacific continues to reflect ENSO-neutral.
Most models forecast Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain between 0oC and -0.5oC through Northern Hemisphere spring and to remain ENSO-neutral (between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) into the fall (Fig. 6). However, there is increasing model spread and overall less confidence in the forecast during the last half of the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to lower model skill beginning in late spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 April 2013. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Looks to be Neutral for the remaining year.
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 March 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
During February 2013, ENSO-neutral continued although SSTs remained below average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño 3.4 index remained near -0.5oC, while the Niño 3 index became less negative as the month progressed (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) similarly increased during the month (Fig. 3), largely due to the eastward push of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) again contributed to increased atmospheric variability over the tropical Pacific during February. Anomalous low-level winds were primarily easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds remained near average, but with some intra-monthly variability. Over Indonesia, anomalous convection remained enhanced north of the equator and suppressed south of the equator (Fig. 5). Due to the lack of persistent atmosphere-ocean coupling, the tropical Pacific continues to reflect ENSO-neutral.
Most models forecast Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain between 0oC and -0.5oC through Northern Hemisphere spring and to remain ENSO-neutral (between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) into the fall (Fig. 6). However, there is increasing model spread and overall less confidence in the forecast during the last half of the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to lower model skill beginning in late spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 4 April 2013. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Looks to be Neutral for the remaining year.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed, while 3.4 and 4 have cooled.
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC
Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed, while 3.4 and 4 have cooled.
Warm pool going up in El Nino Region 3 and 3.4.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
All regions have warmed up.
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
All regions have warmed up.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 have not changed.
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 have not changed.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled, while 3.4 and 4 have warmed.
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 have cooled, while 3.4 and 4 have warmed.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
No change in Region 1+2 and 3. Cooling in Region 3.4 and warming in Region 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
No change in Region 1+2 and 3. Cooling in Region 3.4 and warming in Region 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC
Slight warming in Region 1+2. No change for Region 3. Slight cooling for Region 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC
Slight warming in Region 1+2. No change for Region 3. Slight cooling for Region 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
Warming in Region 1+2 and 3. Cooling in Region 4, but no change for Region 3.4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
Warming in Region 1+2 and 3. Cooling in Region 4, but no change for Region 3.4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is trending positive. Positive SOI is correlated with La Nina, while negative SOI is correlated with El Nino.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC
Quite a cool down in Region 1+2 and 3. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed up.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC
Quite a cool down in Region 1+2 and 3. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed up.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.6ºC
Cooled down even more for Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4. No change for Region 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.6ºC
Cooled down even more for Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4. No change for Region 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Forecast model shows Neutral through at least Fall 2013.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.6ºC
It is cooling down in Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.6ºC
It is cooling down in Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -2.1ºC
Cooled down quite a bit in Region 1+2. Not as much for Region 3. Warmed up in Region 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -2.1ºC
Cooled down quite a bit in Region 1+2. Not as much for Region 3. Warmed up in Region 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC
Warmed up in Region 1+2 and 3. Unchanged in 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC
Warmed up in Region 1+2 and 3. Unchanged in 3.4 and 4.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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