March - Slow Warming Trend With Rain Chance This Weekend?

[unome]

March has always been my favorite month, but that being said - this is hillarious...



image blatently stolen from WeatherNation's blog today
http://blog.weathernationtv.com/2013/02 ... no-really/

[srainhoutx]

09Z SREF:

[jasons2k]

I see I've already posted in the wrong thread.

<rant>sorry, my $.02, we just took something really simple and straigthforward and made it complicated.</rant>

Anyway, NWS now says 33 for me tonight and 35 over the weekend. The roller-coaster ride continues for a few more days...

[hlewis]

is it going to snow???

[Belmer]

is it going to snow???

The chance of snow is greater in central TX than SE TX, but even in central TX it is slim. As srain pointed out, lower levels will probably be too dry for anything to reach the ground. With that said though, still cant roll out a flurry or two.

[Belmer]

Here in west and central TX, we could approach the low to mid 80s Monday.
After seeing "83" for the high, I really don't want winter to be over with yet.

[srainhoutx]

The trends today via the 12Z suite of operational guidance suggest a bit stronger short wave and tad better lift Friday evening into early Saturday. While it is still unlikely that much if any moisture makes to the ground due to a dry lower level near the surface, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a report or two of a stray flurry or ice pellet somewhere across Central/SE Texas. There may be slightly better chances along and S of the I-10 Corridor, but that remains to be seen. Other than a novelty, no other issues will be of any concern at this time.

[Katdaddy]

Hmmmm...believe it if I see it.

A STRONG S/WV WILL APPROACH SE TX ON FRI AFTN. THE S/WV
IS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO AND SHOWS UP NICELY ON SATELLITE. AM
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN AND RATHER
COOL TEMPS. THE 00Z NAM 12 KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS SE TX BUT THE
18Z GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI EVENING. THE NAM 12 FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OVER THE SW ZONES FRI
EVENING DESPITE MASS FIELDS SHOWING NO QPF OUTPUT. 300 MB WINDS
SHOW SE TX IN A LEFT FRONT QUAD AND PW VALUES PEAKING NEAR 0.50
INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
EVEN LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SW ZONES FRI NITE.

[Ptarmigan]

It has snowed in March once on March 9-10, 1932. This may not bode well as the Freeport Hurricane hit in August of 1932.

[C2G]

Ed, 1979 was a pretty dry summer if I recall correctly. Was actually playing in the Junior All American golf tournament in Friendswood when the heavens opened up.

Initially it was thought the system would remain progressive, however, a blocking ridge formed to its north preventing recurvature
for an additional day, which led to extremely heavy rains between Alvin, Freeport, and Sergent in Texas. The 42 inches that
were measured at Alvin within a 24 hour period set a new 24 hour rainfall record for the United States.

Anyway, I don't believe those three month outlooks can predict Tropical Depressions, storms, or Hurricanes.

[Katdaddy]

A flurry or two......

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST. S/W IN N TX WILL TREK SE
TODAY AND BRING SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. STRONG
LEE SIDE JET WILL DIVE SWD INTO CNTL TX TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH IT FOR THE WEEKEND. LFQ WILL
ENHANCE OVERALL LIFT TONIGHT ACROSS SW PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVNG. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 6-15K FT
(-6C TO -26C) SUGGESTING PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AT THAT TIME.
GFS ISN`T QUITE AS SATURATED. PROBLEM IS BELOW THAT...SOUNDINGS
SHOW QUITE A DRY/WARM SUB CLOUD LAYER >4500FT. WHETHER ANY
ISOLATED PRECIP IS EVEN GENERATED IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT IT FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS FROM TIME-TO-
TIME. (THE HIRES MODELS ARE ACTUALLY THE MORE BULLISH ATTM). WILL
THROW IN SOME 20% POPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. BELIEVE MOST RADAR
RETURNS WILL BE VIRGA. THE DEPTH OF WARM DRY LLVL SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE SFC AS LIGHT RAIN. BUT ALSO
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR ABOUT A FLURRY OR TWO FLOATING
AROUND TOO. SORRY THOUGH...NO SFC ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS.
COLD SATURDAY ON TAP. H85 TEMPS 0 TO -4C...LOW THICKNESS...BREEZY
N WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY NE PARTS OF SE TX WILL PROBABLY SEE A
LATE SEASON FREEZE SAT NIGHT SO WOULD HOLD OFF BUYING SENSITIVE
LANDSCAPING THIS WEEKEND...

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA ON SUN ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW
TO RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. STILL EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO PUSH THE NEXT FRONT THRU
LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
CAP THINGS OFF SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
FRONT.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE. LOWS IN 40S & HIGHS IN 60S. 47

[Katdaddy]

We shall see.......

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2013

TXZ210-211-226-227-235>237-021115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-COLORADO-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
505 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
MIXED IN BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LATE SEASON LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...THOUGH A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

[srainhoutx]

We have light frost up here in NW Harris County this morning. The feature outlined by the SPC for today for locations across Southern Oklahoma and North Central Texas is what is creating the fuss about this potential snow flurry/ice pellet talk that we have been mentioning all week. We will see what the radar suggests later today to see if there is anything to this novelty potential that HGX has been talking about all week.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CST FRI MAR 01 2013

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ARE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND AN ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WHICH WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN
TANDEM WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A
POCKET OF COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AND STEEP LAPSE RATES -- SEE
THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING/ ATTENDING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF OK/TX WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG. MODEL-DERIVED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...BUT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR
SPORADIC LIGHTNING PRODUCTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

..MEAD/JIRAK.. 03/01/2013

[jasons2k]

34 this AM. NWS now has me forecasted for 31 tomorrow night. Bummer.

[unome]

.
31 at Hooks Airport http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html

didn't cover our plants... frost on everything...

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z suite of operational and ensemble guidance is suggesting a strong storm system moving inland along the California Coast near the 8th, +/- a day or two. This appears to be our next shot of rain across the Region and if the long wave pattern can slow down just a bit, perhaps a good return flow of the Gulf will become established and offer a chance for strong storms to develop across West Texas and slowly march E. We will see.

[Texas Pirate]

Here in west and central TX, we could approach the low to mid 80s Monday.
After seeing "83" for the high, I really don't want winter to be over with yet.

Send those temps to me. No complaints. Would feel good considering we're going into a light freeze this weekend.
Happy March 1st.

[Belmer]

Here in west and central TX, we could approach the low to mid 80s Monday.
After seeing "83" for the high, I really don't want winter to be over with yet.

Send those temps to me. No complaints. Would feel good considering we're going into a light freeze this weekend.
Happy March 1st.

Well, we're also going into a light freeze here in Central TX this weekend, with a chance of flurries tonight into the early hours of Saturday morning. Forecast is now calling for a high of 85 on Moday. Geez! Welcome to March weather... 50s on Saturday, 80s on Monday. The month we have bipolar weather as we transition into Spring.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST FRI MAR 01 2013

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TEXAS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY IS NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ...CONTRIBUTING
TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BENEATH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED -30C 500 MB COLD CORE...THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR AND DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A STRENGTHENING...SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD...THAT PROBABLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL DATA. WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE QUITE MEAGER WITH THIS
LOW-TOPPED...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY... FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO STILL GENERALLY INDICATE CAPE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE RISK FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE 20-23Z TIME
FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

..KERR.. 03/01/2013

[Texas Pirate]

Here in west and central TX, we could approach the low to mid 80s Monday.
After seeing "83" for the high, I really don't want winter to be over with yet.

Send those temps to me. No complaints. Would feel good considering we're going into a light freeze this weekend.
Happy March 1st.

Well, we're also going into a light freeze here in Central TX this weekend, with a chance of flurries tonight into the early hours of Saturday morning. Forecast is now calling for a high of 85 on Moday. Geez! Welcome to March weather... 50s on Saturday, 80s on Monday. The month we have bipolar weather as we transition into Spring.

Lets keep the disabled out of it - they get blamed enough
Lets just say its a battle between Winter and Spring - hopefully SPRING will be the winner - SOON!!!!!!!