February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[srainhoutx]

^^

The timing remains rather uncertain with the Upper Low still well W of our Region near Southern California/Arizona. We'll need to see how things develop late tonight into the early morning hours to the W near the Hill Country before the eventual time frame can be nailed down. A later arrival of the squall line even by 2-4 hours could increase the chances of the severe potential for portions of SE Texas into Louisiana. We will see.

[wxman666]

Not to get off the severe weather topic as I'm very interested in it, but I just wanted to comment on how remarkably chilly it feels to me out here in the Cypress area. The wind is what seems to be making it worse. Wanted to go sit out and have a cigar, but didn't last 5 minutes out there.

[wxman666]

With NWS, SPC and local stations and TWC on board, I'm inclined to try and pull an all nighter.

[harpman]

With NWS, SPC and local stations and TWC on board, I'm inclined to try and pull an all nighter.

An all nighter for rain? Not sure what you mean.....

[C2G]

If you can't enjoy a cigar outside, well it's just way too cold, even for someone sporting the number of the Beast, which you'd figure would keep him extra warm.

[wxman666]

If you can't enjoy a cigar outside, well it's just way too cold, even for someone sporting the number of the Beast, which you'd figure would keep him extra warm.

I actually just did a few minutes ago. Love that number by the way lol.

[wxman666]

With NWS, SPC and local stations and TWC on board, I'm inclined to try and pull an all nighter.

An all nighter for rain? Not sure what you mean.....

I have family in West Central and North Central TX so I'll be keeping an eye on them first initially and watching what may develop. Then that may give us an idea of what may really be headed this way (models aside). Just something to watch.

[Andrew]

We will be launching a balloon around midnight tonight in College Station for anyone interested in the sounding around then.

[srainhoutx]

I was just talking to Andrew. They did a special launch from CLL prior to the Monday event and that sounding data proved beneficial in providing data closer to home before we saw the severe weather that was somewhat more than was originally expected with the Monday afternoon episode. Also of note the low level jet has really increase the past hour here in NW Harris County. Winds are gusting near 30 mph + at this time.

[Rip76]

Looks like some nice onshore flow from the Gulf tonight.

[Katdaddy]

Its cold! 43°F with winds E-23G32mph here in Weatherford, TX making a windchill of 34F. At Weatherford for work until Friday.

[srainhoutx]

Andrew just sent a text that the launch was just delayed until tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

^^

Actually that data is sent to HGX and FWD, Ed. It proved helpful last Monday for both WFO's since meso guidance was missing the cap eroding quicker than expected...

[Andrew]

Yea we should be launching right before 12z and hopefully the data will be charted by 13-14z. We are waiting for the warm front to back up farther to provide better data for the surrounding areas. Hopefully I will be able to post the actual sounding and if not I will try to at least describe what is going on. Ill post more in the morning.

[Katdaddy]

Line of strong storms currently approaching NTX but remain below severe limits. Storms will intensify as they push E into E and NE Texas. Storms in ETX into LA and MS may have the best chance of possible tornadoes later today. Squall line will develop across Central TX this morning and push into western portions of SE TX mid morning. damaging winds will be possible with the squall line while a tornado threat will be possible from any storms that develop in advance of the line.

Houston-Galveston HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
505 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
LINE AND WILL BE CAPAOBLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION. AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BRENHAM TO ANAHUAC WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA BY MID AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

[Andrew]

Update from KCLL at 12z (Launched by SOAP team for A&M) :

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A line of showers some with heavy rainfall is progressing southeast across Fort Bend, Harris, and Montgomery Counties currently. Powerful storm system producing blizzard conditions over the central plains has a cold front extending south over central TX west of I-35 currently. A line of strong thunderstorms has developed along this front from near Waco to west of Fort Worth.

Very strong low level jet is in place this morning with VAD profiles from the radar showing 45-55kts just off the surface. Surface winds are on the order of 15-25kts and this is producing strong speed shear of the region. Additionally winds are veering with height suggesting updrafts will produce rotation. However instability is currently lacking over the region resulting in marginal (weak) updrafts which the strong shear is quickly tilting and destroying. Not sure we will be able to get enough instability to produce strong enough updrafts to feed off the strong shear…if we are able to however the threat for supercells and tornadoes will be increased. Additionally, capping continues to affect the areas along and south of I-10 and this mid level warm layer may be difficult to overcome. Still think the best severe threat will be east of I-45 and north of I-10 or across our NE counties.

With such a strong low level jet in place, storm motions will be very rapid…NNE to NE at 40-55mph and these fast motions alone could help transport down some stronger winds from just above the surface resulting in some wind damage. Still think the severe threat is fairly marginal today unless we get some breaks in the cloud cover and some modest heating.

Front moves to the coast overnight and stalls offshore. Think only mid and high level clouds will result on Friday as the sub-tropical jet remains overhead, but we could see a few showers linger near the coast or offshore on Friday before high pressure brings drier air south for the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211322Z - 211445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND A WATCH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY BY MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE TX...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW JUST SW OF ACT. A SPECIAL 12Z SOUNDING FROM CLL SHOWED BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE...RESULTING IN MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. OTHER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS FARTHER S SHOWED A MUCH
WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONGER CAP...THOUGH THE CLL
SOUNDING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.
THUS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY A SUBTLE APPARENT SPEED MAX OVER
S CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IF STORMS CAN MOVE EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...THE PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE THE
DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...SINCE STORMS
FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE
COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER NE. N OF THE WARM
FRONT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GOSS.. 02/21/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

We have a broken overcast with some sun here in NW Harris County this morning. I can clearly see the inbound aircraft making the long W bound leg of their approach before turning back SE for final at IAH. Worrisome that some daytime heating may happen before the main Pacific front arrives.

[wxman666]

We have a broken overcast with some sun here in NW Harris County this morning. I can clearly see the inbound aircraft making the long W bound leg of their approach before turning back SE for final at IAH. Worrisome that some daytime heating may happen before the main Pacific front arrives.

Noticing that here too Srain.