February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[Katdaddy]

Picked up .98" at the house which I will gladly take. About .40" fell in downtown Houston today. Skies were clearing off to the W just before I headed home from work. Perhaps more rainfall over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

CPC Update this afternoon certainly is suggesting a return of Winter across most of the US...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 06 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2013

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES INCLUDE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BERING STRAIT EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS,
RIDGING NEAR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IS SPLIT
FAIRLY EVENLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM A RIDGE FORECAST UPSTREAM OVER THE
PACIFIC. BLOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED
ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEW ENGLAND UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND
GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND
CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY, NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A RIDGE FORECAST JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING
STRAIT AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE OF ALASKA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS TODAY'S 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY LARGE SPREAD OVER THE
PACIFIC AMONG THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2013

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER
THE MIDWEST. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ALSO
FORECAST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE AO INDEX IS PREDICTED
BY MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK
TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF- AND CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FORECAST ATLANTIC RIDGE AS THE GFS, ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE PREDICTED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS ALSO HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE
OFFICIAL WEEK TWO 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND IS WEIGHTED FAIRLY EVENLY AMONG THE GFS-, ECMWF-, AND CANADIAN-BASED
SOLUTIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE.

THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND
GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST NEAR THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS.
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA DUE
TO MOIST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10
PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 20
PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL


Day 6-10:

Day 8-14:

[Portastorm]

Overnight model runs continue to suggest a stormier, colder pattern for Texas beginning this weekend and stretching late into February. I'm sure srain will provide us with his usual excellent analysis soon. Signs are encouraging for those of us who would like a few more weeks of "winter" before the warm season takes over.

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the long wave trough and several embedded shorts wave dropping SSE into Southern California/Arizona/N Mexico beginning later today. There remains some subtle difference as to where and when the first surface low ejects from the N new Mexico/S Colorado Rockies into the Plains as well as just where the Sunday Pacific front stalls along the NW Gulf. The 12Z Euro/GFS suggest that boundary will hang up near the Middle/Upper Texas Coast and on NE across Louisiana Monday into late Tuesday as a Coastal low forms near the Rio Grande Valley and rides the boundary ENE Tuesday into Wednesday.

The severe threat has increased slightly and the SPC has outlined a Slight Risk for Saturday where severe storm as possible along a dry line. Those storms should develop into a squall line and slowly marching E across E Texas and Louisiana on Sunday. The SPC is mentioning the potential for severe storms further E, but capping and lack of dynamics due the surface low tracking too far to our N tend decrease the chances of severe storms across E Texas into Louisiana. We will need to monitor trends the next 48 hours as the Major Nor’easter expected tomorrow will likely influence some of the upper air pattern back into our Region.

On Monday, a deep upper cold core low/trough should begin to trek across New Mexico into Texas setting the stage for over running precip particularly along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast on E into Louisiana and the Lower Mississippi Valley. There continues to be suggestions via the ensembles that enough cold air aloft will accompany the 500mb upper low/trough to offer a chance of wintry mischief along and N of I-20. The Euro even suggested that a bit of Winter Weather may be possible in Central Louisiana on Wednesday ( ice/sleet). The upper air pattern does suggest we will remain some what unsettled and ‘colder’ and storm systems drop S into the Great Basin/Intermountain West where a general troughiness is expected to linger. The sub tropical jet appears to remain noisy over the next 10 to 12 days as well. A general cold and stormy pattern appears to be in the offing for areas along and E of the Rockies extending to the East Coast during that time period as well. I believe that rodent up in PA may have seen his shadow, but I’m not so sure of his forecasting abilities...

[Belmer]

Well I saw the Alamo longhorn last Saturday at the Houston weather museum and he saw HIS shadow which says six more weeks of winter for TX. I think he may be on to something...

[srainhoutx]

It's becoming a bit clearer that Winter is returning for most of the US during the next 15 days or so.

12Z GEFS:

[srainhoutx]

lol...

[Belmer]

The Euro just LOVES playing with us folks here in South TX. Hope he can play right this time...

[JackCruz]

No cold and snow to talk about for us coming up?

[Belmer]

No cold and snow to talk about for us coming up?

Look at Steve's 12:39pm post... You can't help but miss his excited face.

[C2G]

Look at Steve's 12:39pm post... You can't help but miss his excited face.

The "Lol" should give reason for pause.
No doubt things will probably cool down before February ends, but until you read wxman57 jump on any snow bandwagon, don't get your hopes up.

[Katdaddy]

SE TX under a slight risk area Sunday:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER TX COAST TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

DAY2 SRN ROCKIES SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY BY 11/00Z WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE H5 FLOW SHOULD BE
AOA 60KT. WHILE MORE MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
SHOULD SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THE REGION IT APPEARS WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TSTM
INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SERN TX. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA WHERE SBCAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG/SOUTH
OF TRAILING BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY AIDED IN PART BY A WEAK EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL IMPULSE. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION COULD ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY ATTAIN
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION
PROFILES. WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
IT/S LIKELY THE MORE COMMON STORM MODE WILL BE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE AIDS ACTIVITY AS IMPLIED BY LATEST GUIDANCE.

ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERTURNED BY DAYTIME CONVECTION.

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW TORNADOES ARE THE SEVERE THREATS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
REGION.

[srainhoutx]

A very complex and complicated forecast period is ahead as a potentially Historic Nor'easter develops today across the Great Lakes and NE and a deep trough with embedded short wave energy dives S into the Great Basin to our W. Early morning WV Imagery shows these to weather makers very well and the stage is set for possible record breaking snowfall for Boston and a locations along the I-95 Corridor and inland areas of New England.

To the W, snow and lower elevation rains begin in earnest across the Great Basin/Intermountain West as a deep trough with rich Pacific moisture will linger into the Tuesday of next week time frame before shifting E mid next week. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk for severe storms on Saturday roughly from Del Rio to Austin to near the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Storms should begin to fire during the late afternoon on Saturday along a dry line and march E developing into a squall line. As Katdaddy has noted, the SPC has outlined a Day 3 Slight Risk for SE/E TX and Louisiana. A stalling frontal boundary will near the Coast on Sunday bringing cooler air and setting the stage for an over running rain event for early next week.

Abundant Pacific moisture and a wave of low pressure appear to develop near Corpus Christi Monday night into Tuesday and slowly ride the stalled boundary ENE. Meanwhile to our W, additional short wave upper air disturbances drop SE from the Pacific NW into a positive tilted trough axis pulling down much colder air. The trough and upper level vort max and a sharp Canadian front will finally push across Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a slight chance for wintry mischief along and N of I-20 Tuesday as a cold pocket aloft near the-30 degree range moves E, if enough moisture is available. That will need to be monitored the next several days. Skies finally clear by late Wednesday setting the stage for possible near freezing temps late next week. Clouds and moisture may return for the following weekend with below normal temps as a much stronger cold front arrives with yet another strong upper low and Western trough developing.

00Z Euro Ensembles:

00Z GEFS:

[cristina99]

Whoo hoo! Come on cold weather - one last finale before the warm humid weather forces its way back in. I am reading it correctly right? More cold air - will it be colder than recent "cool" fronts we've had? I hope so!

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the high-res European model run from 12Z yesterday and 00Z last evening. All I see for us next week is lows in the upper 30s and highs in the upper 50s Wed/Thu post-frontal. At 10 days, there are indications of temps dipping into the lower 30s across northern parts of the city. Nothing close to as cold as we've already seen in early January.

[srainhoutx]

^^

I'll stick to my mention early this morning of near freezing temps across the Region later next week...

12Z GEFS:

The attachment 02082013 12Z GEFS 12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif is no longer available

12Z Euro:

[JackCruz]

Every time I see the blue line way offshore and precip overrunning it, I immediately think "SNOW!" ...ugh I wish I could read these maps! lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That's the 850mb freezing line.

It could be 37 degrees at the surface and 30 degrees just a tad up in the atmosphere. IT's why you can see heavy snow at 35-36 degrees sometimes. It's also why those maps give false hope in terms of wintry weather a lot.

[JackCruz]

That's the 850mb freezing line.

It could be 37 degrees at the surface and 30 degrees just a tad up in the atmosphere. IT's why you can see heavy snow at 35-36 degrees sometimes. It's also why those maps give false hope in terms of wintry weather a lot.

Thanks!

[don]

Has anyone seen the 12z Euro? It shows snow for some parts of southeast texas and central texas next weekend....