January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[weather101]

Funny Bastardi say of new runs 0z batch one run after another colder and colder coming to US...COLDNEGGEDON! Like I said Joe knows when he is flexing like this...trending freaking COLD!

[mcheer23]

GFS 00z isnt quite as cold..

[C2G]

Funny Bastardi say of new runs 0z batch one run after another colder and colder coming to US...COLDNEGGEDON! Like I said Joe knows when he is flexing like this...trending freaking COLD!

Sure, but he's talking about the whole CONUS, specifically if you look at a few graphics, the east.
Appears we get a glancing blow, just from what graphics he's posted.

[weather101]

This is the fun at hand...see what verifies in the near future. Lol...it will be fascinating.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front has cleared the coast this morning and the air behind the front is colder than forecasted and over running showers continue from just W of Columbus on NNE to just E of the Dallas areas where sleet and some freezing rain has been reported. It is noteworthy that none of the guidance ‘predicted’ this type event across NE Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas and it raises an eyebrow as to just how lacking the models continue to be in this current pattern. Temps are a good 30 degrees cooler than yesterday with upper 30’s to mid 40’s reported across Central and the northern areas of SE TX. Hopefully the over running rain showers will diminish as the morning progresses as drier air moves across the eastern half of the Lone Star State. Across Western Louisiana, rain will be a bit slower to end and further NE in the ArkLaTx Region, freezing rain and sleet may continue into the mid day time frame.

Attention then turns to our W as a short wave dives S into Northern Mexico Monday and a positive tilted trough lingers across the region. The guidance is having a very difficult time deciding if a closed core upper low develops or if the trough shears out. A closed core solution would offer the chance of wintry mischief and even the potential of a significant ice storm for portions of Central/N Central and NE Texas into NW Louisiana while a more progressive sheared out trough would limit the best chance of over running precip closer to the Coastal Areas. We will need to closely monitor this potential for Tuesday into Wednesday as the eventual solution could have high impacts for many if a close core low does develop across W Texas.

Looking toward next week weekend, a brief warm up appears somewhat likely before all eyes turn to our N during the latter half of the weekend. The Euro is suggesting a very potent Arctic Air mass with a 1058mb Arctic High dropping S into the Plains along the lee side of the Rockies while the GFS is a bit weaker with the high pressure, but has not been consistent and continues to struggle with the evolving pattern. Both global models and their ensembles are suggesting the Polar Vortex will drop well S into the Great Lakes region as heights build across the Pacific into Alaska and a deep trough develops E of the Continental Divide. The European suite of ensembles and operational guidance has been rather consistent in developing a potential Arctic Outbreak early next week, so it will bear watching in the coming days exactly how things unfold. As we can see, the forecast is extremely tricky and has major implication on the sensible weather we can expect this week on into the early next week time frame. Stay Tuned!

HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1245 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013

VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 20 2013

THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS STEADFAST DESPITE THE MANY
OFF-KEY VOICES FROM THE PEANUT GALLERY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY... RESPECTIVELY... AIDED IN PART BY
UPSTREAM RIDGING WELL TO THE NW OF ALASKA VIA TELECONNECTIONS.
WED-FRI/D3-5 WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PUSHES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE SOUTHWARD SINKING
UPPER VORTEX IN CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND... ANOTHER SHOT OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY FURTHER PULL THE COLD CANADIAN UPPER
LOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH COLDER AIR.

THE MODELS HAVE HAD MUCH TROUBLE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS WEEK... DUE IN PART TO HOW MUCH HEIGHTS LOWER IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE SHOWN THE LEAST CONSISTENCY
WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS PROVEN MOST RELIABLE... THOUGH
NOT PERFECTLY CONSISTENT. THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN CLOSEST TO
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THAT REMAINED THE CASE WITH ITS 12Z/12 RUN.
IN THE NORTHERN TIER... THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
CLUSTER AS A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON WED/D3 INTO THU/D4. THIS ENERGY HAS ORIGINS JUST
UPSTREAM OF ALASKA BUT THE GFS TAKES IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE RIDGE BEFORE DIVING THROUGH CANADA WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A
FARTHER NORTH TRACK THROUGH ALASKA. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
DESPITE EACH MODEL BEING RATHER CONSISTENT UP TO THIS POINT... THE
TIPPING POINT BEING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH ITS CONSISTENT
MESSAGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND... A COLD/DRY AIRMASS SHOULD OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND NORTH OF THE GULF AS
ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TUGS THE CANADIAN VORTEX TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS SECOND SURGE
THROUGH CANADA THOUGH WITH SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES. IF NOTHING
ELSE... IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER IN THE EAST THOUGH
QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHER PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA.



FRACASSO



Polar Vortex Animation:

[TexasBreeze]

For Houston, 0z gfs weakened the cold, 06z lost the cold. 12z out soon...

[JackCruz]

The cold will go to the east and Florida like it normally does.

[weather101]

Wow...expect worst and hope for nothing and you can never be disappointed...makes life worth living!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) and the GFS have trended a bit stronger with closing off an upper low at the 500mb level mid week. The NAM is a bit faster while the GFS has slowed the eastward progression of the positive tilted trough/upper air disturbance and is suggesting enough cold air aloft to bring some possible wintry mischief S into Central/E TX/the Middle/Upper Texas Coast on E into Louisiana. That said the models continue to struggle with the pattern and the short waves that are dropping S into California and rounding the base of the deep trough established to our W. We will see.

[don]

GFS shows temps in the upper to mid 30s with precip. for several hours next week, maybe we could see some sleet.

[TexasBreeze]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/Guidance/G ... KIAH.1.txt

May not have to worry about a couple weeks from now, suprizes may happen THIS week with the cold air in place and upper disturbance coming. Gfs shows higher chances of winter precip (Typ= z) Maybe. It sleeted a couple weeks ago!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues the trends seen today suggesting a closed core upper low developing across W Texas and sweeping E with the positive tilted trough bringing over running 'precip' and cold air aloft.

[weather101]

This is the worst and the best models here and there and it's like waiting to see if a girl or a boy...lol

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the GEFS and NAEFS are very chilly in the longer range for most if not all of North America. It is my hunch that the operational runs will flip flop until settling down later in the week during the ongoing MMW (Major Mid Winter Warming Stratospheric event).

[weather101]

How many runs is it going to take to settle down and get a grip...?

[ticka1]

and talk about frozen precip

[sambucol]

and talk about frozen precip

You have my undivided attention, Ticka!

[weather101]

It must be going to get cold...even the updates have gone into hibernation

[C2G]

The cold will go to the east and Florida like it normally does.

Yes Jack I would have to agree. Even the graphics displayed by the legendary Joe B show Texas, especially southeast Texas, getting nothing more than glancing blows. The cold appears to travel south southeast. That's not saying it won't get cold here in southeast Texas, just not anything too extraordinary.

[weather101]

Actually just looked at calendar...Baseball starts a week from this Friday so glance sounds good.