January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Snowman
Posts: 191
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:25 pm
Location: Mountain View, CA
Contact:

redneckweather wrote:Lame event? wth??? All areas are getting a damn good rain including the drought stricken areas of the hill country out near Portastorm...thank god!! The hill country is my home away from home and this is a GREAT event for the entire state! If you are disappointed that someone didn't have a tree land on their house because of a severe storm then you have issues. Carry on. 8-)
That's not why I said it is lame. I said it is lame because it is lame (in my opinion of course). Rainfall totals aren't as high as some models forecasted. I never wish for anyone to get hurt or have any property damage at all, but I do love to observe extreme weather. I believe I share that passion with most people on this forum.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

from West Gulf River Forecast Center (I like their site, more info at the link) : http://www.srh.weather.gov/wgrfc/HMDmain.php

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
ISSUED: 1107 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013
VALID: JANUARY 9 THROUGH JANUARY 14

..SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE WGRFC AREA, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND...

A major storm system is affecting the WGRFC area this morning, and it is bringing the most widespread precipitation our region has seen in close to a year. An upper level low pressure system is located over northern Mexico south of the Texas Big Bend this morning, and this low will begin moving north into Texas this afternoon and tonight. Southerly flow ushered in abundant moisture ahead of this storm, with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms developing across the southeast two thirds of Texas as a result. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.00 to 4.00 inches were observed, with a maximum amount of over 5 inches noted near Victoria TX. The widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue through the day. Then as the upper low moves across Texas tonight into Thursday the area of heaviest rain will move across southeast Texas into Louisiana and will likely dump locally heavy rainfall on that region. Additional showers are expected across the west Texas and the Panhandle as the upper low continues moving toward north Texas and moisture wraps around it. Precipitation amounts in west Texas could go as high as 1.50 inches. The WGRFC will continue to monitor the trends and will update as needed.

The upper low is expected to move through north Texas Thursday morning and out of the region by Thursday evening. As this occurs, the precipitation will end as it quickly shifts away from our region towards the northeast. Thereafter, atmospheric conditions will remain cool and dry from later Thursday into Friday morning.

On Friday another upper level low pressure system and associated cold front are expected to move across the Colorado Rockies. Initially the precipitation looks to be confined to northern New Mexico and Colorado on Friday. But by Saturday morning as the front progresses eastward scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over Texas, with the best chances for moderate rainfall amounts being over east Texas and Louisiana Saturday evening into Sunday. The rainfall is forecast to continue over southeast Texas and Louisiana late Sunday into Monday as the cold front stalls. Meanwhile, the remainder of the WGRFC area will be colder and drier
ticka1 wrote:How are the bayou's holding up? Any near bankful or over their banks?

How fast is this line moving through? Once this event is done then we have a few days of dry then another round this weekend. With next week more rain and maybe cold temps!
User avatar
txflagwaver
Posts: 411
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 2:37 pm
Location: Seabrook/Kemah
Contact:

Snowman wrote:
redneckweather wrote:Lame event? wth??? All areas are getting a damn good rain including the drought stricken areas of the hill country out near Portastorm...thank god!! The hill country is my home away from home and this is a GREAT event for the entire state! If you are disappointed that someone didn't have a tree land on their house because of a severe storm then you have issues. Carry on. 8-)
That's not why I said it is lame. I said it is lame because it is lame (in my opinion of course). Rainfall totals aren't as high as some models forecasted. I never wish for anyone to get hurt or have any property damage at all, but I do love to observe extreme weather. I believe I share that passion with most people on this forum.
Well..it's not over..and where are you in Cypress?? My son is up there and already got 4 inches by lunchtime...We had light steady rain all day until around noon..then it started pouring and has not stopped. Draining okay on the street but if it does not stop soon it will be up to my back patio door.
User avatar
wxman666
Posts: 519
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:02 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

txflagwaver wrote:
Snowman wrote:
redneckweather wrote:Lame event? wth??? All areas are getting a damn good rain including the drought stricken areas of the hill country out near Portastorm...thank god!! The hill country is my home away from home and this is a GREAT event for the entire state! If you are disappointed that someone didn't have a tree land on their house because of a severe storm then you have issues. Carry on. 8-)
That's not why I said it is lame. I said it is lame because it is lame (in my opinion of course). Rainfall totals aren't as high as some models forecasted. I never wish for anyone to get hurt or have any property damage at all, but I do love to observe extreme weather. I believe I share that passion with most people on this forum.
Well..it's not over..and where are you in Cypress?? My son is up there and already got 4 inches by lunchtime...We had light steady rain all day until around noon..then it started pouring and has not stopped. Draining okay on the street but if it does not stop soon it will be up to my back patio door.
I'm in Cypress as well. Watching that red line segment about to push through the NW side of Harris if it doesn't weaken. Wondering what kind of rates are inside that storm.
Ready for severe weather season!!
User avatar
TxLady
Posts: 99
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:39 am
Location: New Waverly, Walker Co., TX
Contact:

Well, I guess I should have asked Santa for a weather station, for Christmas! :) We lost power on Christmas morning, due to high winds, for 2 days (Thank Goodness for the generator). It started raining, here, night before last, and has taken a few breaks...but a nice steady rain, no less. The thunder is gently rolling in the distance. Overall, a very much appreciated, and highly needed rain event!
Snowman
Posts: 191
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:25 pm
Location: Mountain View, CA
Contact:

I have a weather station on my roof and it says that between today and yesterday I have received 2.16 inches
nuby3
Posts: 387
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:25 pm
Location: THE WOODLANDS PARKWAY and FM 2978
Contact:

i'm just over 3 inches just north of Tomball. i'm not giving up on this event just yet
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Satellite vs Radar rain totals from NMQ http://nmq.ou.edu/

really shows the need for good radar, glad HGX will get their upgrade soon

24 hr
Image
Image

48 hr
Image
Image
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Looks like the storms are back building? Anyone else see that?
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

new flash flood warning http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/tx.php?x=1

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX124EE8021BF8.FlashFloodWarning.124EE80E99A0TX.LCHFFWLCH.c616ce88c1f04da350a1d59900643f6f from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:14 CST on 01-09-2013
Effective: 14:14 CST on 01-09-2013
Expires: 20:00 CST on 01-09-2013
Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 208 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE WARNED AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE HEAVIER RAINS WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AND SMALLER STREAMS TO
RISE RAPIDLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...BRIDGE CITY...CENTRAL GARDENS...GRAND LAKE...HAYES...
IOWA...LAKE CHARLES...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...
MAURICEVILLE...MOSS BLUFF...NEDERLAND...NOME...ORANGE...PORT
NECHES...SOUR LAKE...STARKS...SULPHUR...VIDOR...VINTON...WEST
ORANGE...WESTLAKE...BEVIL OAKS...BUHLER...BULLER...CARLYSS...
CHINA...EDGERLY...FANNETT...FOREST HEIGHTS AND GILLIS.

Instructions: EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY... COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.
Target Area:
Hardin
Jefferson
Orange
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

found this while looking for other things, note you can change parameters

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.ph ... tion=WGRFC

Image

About Flash Flood Guidance:

National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers routinely issue Flash Flood Guidance throughout the day for every county in their area. The river forecast centers determine 1- 3- and 6-hour flash flood guidance values for all counties, and 12- and 24-hour values for parts of the eastern United States. The NWS Weather Forecast Offices use this guidance when issuing flash flood watches and warnings to the public.

Flash Flood Guidance estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. These estimates are based on current soil moisture conditions. Note, in urban areas, less rainfall is required to produce flash flooding.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

skies are getting brighter here :)

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

000
FXUS64 KHGX 092127
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY FROM
ALL OF THE AREA`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE RAINFALL - SEE OUR FLWHGX AND FLSHGX. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND STORM COMPLEXES REMAINED OFFSHORE WHERE A LARGE AREA
OF RADAR ESTIMATED 3 TO 6 INCH STORM PRECIP TOTALS CAN BE FOUND ROUGHLY
5 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 10 INCHES BEYOND 60
MILES. IF THESE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE JUST 50 OR SO MILES WESTWARD...SERIOUS
FLOODING WOULD HAVE OCCURED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. AS OF 3 PM...ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER AIR IS DOING ITS BEST TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA...BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OFF TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...FEEL IT IS BEST TO KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR THE AREA FOR NOW JUST IN CASE SOME BRIEF
HEAVIER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ALREADY VERY WET LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATE THE
NEXT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WATCH THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY
SHRINKS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO 50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND WE MIGHT HAVE
TO CARRY EVEN HIGHER POPS WHEN WE UPDATE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A COLDER AND CLOUDY AND SHOWERY PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. 42
&&
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1790
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

A little dry air for rush hour...
Ounce
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 10:18 pm
Location: Houston
Contact:

unome wrote:EXPECT DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO 50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND WE MIGHT HAVE
TO CARRY EVEN HIGHER POPS WHEN WE UPDATE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. &&
Sucks for those of us running the marathon on Sunday. I'm sure the timing will be reported, as our rain event moves off.

On another topic, with 8-10 inches of rain in the Gulf, what does that do or not do for the Gulf? Does it adjust anything for even a short period? Inquiring minds want to know.
Texas Pirate

Dont know how to post pictures but I'm mighty proud my rain gauge has 4 inches in it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope everyone is safe and dry.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Ounce wrote:On another topic, with 8-10 inches of rain in the Gulf, what does that do or not do for the Gulf? Does it adjust anything for even a short period? Inquiring minds want to know.
it gets it wetter... :lol:
Ounce
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 10:18 pm
Location: Houston
Contact:

unome wrote:
Ounce wrote:On another topic, with 8-10 inches of rain in the Gulf, what does that do or not do for the Gulf? Does it adjust anything for even a short period? Inquiring minds want to know.
it gets it wetter... :lol:
Yes, friends, he's here every Wednesday afternoon at 5 to underwhelm and make his momma wish she had been doing something else on that fateful night of conception. FREE DRINKS!!! :shock:
mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

Rain finally stopped here in Stafford about a half or so ago. It looks eerily quiet out there now. There is an odd glow, when I look out my window everything looks orangey. Thankful for the rain today and thankful that we didn't have flooding. Not looking forward to the warmer temps, though I know a few on here are. :mrgreen:

P.S. While I wasn't home today, I have no clue how much rain Stafford got, but the water in our inground pool was up to the deck. Been draining for over an hour now. Been quite some time since we have had to do that.
Texas Pirate

Yes the sky really had a strange color down here by the bay - kinda purplie.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5406
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I've had another 1.19" since I dumped the rain bucket last night. That gives me a storm total of 1.99". Not quite 5 inches or anything crazy but I'll gladly take it :-)
Post Reply
  • Information