January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[harpman]

Thanks again for your prompt response. I know this is primarily a Texas forum and I'm in New Orleans, but I do get a lot of information here!

We have become a much more Regional Forum that covers New Mexico/Mexico/Oklahoma/Arkansas and Louisiana, harpman over the past several years. That was always the dream that those that came before such as Dan as well as the fine folks at KHOU had envisioned for our Community. Our members and those that read, post and participate stretch well beyond Texas. In fact we have members and followers from Coast to Coast, from Canada to the Caribbean.

yes, I know several folks here locally who follow this forum. Thanks again!

[Portastorm]

Winter-wise-

SXUS74 KEWX 041331
RERAUS

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
727 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE WAS REPORTED AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIES
THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1972.

$$

That is curious ... I didn't hear or see any snow reports from KAUS. Perhaps the "trace" relates to the rain/sleet mix which occurred throughout much of the Austin metro area in the last 10 hours or so.

[srainhoutx]

Here are some of the preliminary storm totals across Southern New Mexico and Texas. NWS El Paso as not updated their information as well as San Angelo. It does appear the Southern New Mexico into El Paso received 4 inch amount with isolated higher totals of snow. San Angelo suggests 1-4 inches across their Western Region in the Permian Basin and along and S of I-20. Here is Midland and San Antonio/Austin updated graphics. Sleet is still currently falling in San Antonio at Lackland AFB.

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Angelo Updated storm totals...

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1129 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     SNOW             DYESS AFB               32.42N  99.86W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        TAYLOR             TX   PUBLIC          

0600 AM     SNOW             ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
01/04/2013  M1.0 INCH        TAYLOR             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0600 AM     SNOW             5 SW SAN ANGELO         31.38N 100.49W
01/04/2013  M2.8 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS OFFICE      

0645 AM     SNOW             BANGS                   31.71N  99.13W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        BROWN              TX   PUBLIC          

0645 AM     SNOW             MAY                     31.98N  98.92W
01/04/2013  M2.8 INCH        BROWN              TX   PUBLIC          

0700 AM     SNOW             CARLSBAD                31.60N 100.63W
01/04/2013  M5.1 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS 

0700 AM     SNOW             KNICKERBOCKER           31.27N 100.62W
01/04/2013  M2.3 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS 

0700 AM     SNOW             4 W SAN ANGELO          31.45N 100.52W
01/04/2013  M4.5 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE    

0700 AM     SNOW             SANTA ANNA              31.74N  99.32W
01/04/2013  M1.5 INCH        COLEMAN            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0700 AM     SNOW             ROSCOE                  32.45N 100.54W
01/04/2013  M1.3 INCH        NOLAN              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NNE BRONTE            31.96N 100.27W
01/04/2013  M5.1 INCH        COKE               TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS 

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NNE SILVER VALLEY     32.04N  99.52W
01/04/2013  M2.5 INCH        COLEMAN            TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS REPORT FROM LAKE COLEMAN AREA 

0700 AM     SNOW             STERLING CITY           31.84N 100.98W
01/04/2013  M3.7 INCH        STERLING           TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS 

0700 AM     SNOW             SONORA                  30.57N 100.64W
01/04/2013  M1.0 INCH        SUTTON             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0700 AM     SNOW             ROBERT LEE              31.89N 100.48W
01/04/2013  M3.0 INCH        COKE               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0700 AM     SNOW             12 NNW MERTZON          31.42N 100.89W
01/04/2013  M4.9 INCH        IRION              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0718 AM     SNOW             GRAPE CREEK             31.58N 100.55W
01/04/2013  M3.8 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC          

0724 AM     SNOW             5 W SAN ANGELO          31.45N 100.54W
01/04/2013  E4.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE    

0724 AM     SNOW             12 S BAIRD              32.22N  99.40W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        CALLAHAN           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0725 AM     SNOW             MERTZON                 31.26N 100.82W
01/04/2013  E4.5 INCH        IRION              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

0728 AM     SNOW             PAINT ROCK              31.51N  99.93W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        CONCHO             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0729 AM     SNOW             5 SW SAN ANGELO         31.38N 100.49W
01/04/2013  M2.8 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS OFFICE      

0729 AM     SNOW             BROWNWOOD               31.71N  98.99W
01/04/2013  E2.0 INCH        BROWN              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0730 AM     SNOW             11 NE SAN ANGELO        31.56N 100.32W
01/04/2013  M3.2 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0730 AM     SNOW             4 N WATER VALLEY        31.73N 100.72W
01/04/2013  M6.0 INCH        COKE               TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0732 AM     SNOW             3 SSW CHRISTOVAL        31.15N 100.52W
01/04/2013  M1.5 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE    

0732 AM     SNOW             3 NE SAN ANGELO         31.48N 100.42W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC          

            PAULANN AREA 

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SW WATER VALLEY       31.65N 100.74W
01/04/2013  M3.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0800 AM     SNOW             2 WSW SAN ANGELO        31.43N 100.48W
01/04/2013  M3.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE    

0800 AM     SNOW             22 SSW OZONA            30.43N 101.38W
01/04/2013  M2.5 INCH        CROCKETT           TX   PUBLIC          

0800 AM     SNOW             18 S OZONA              30.45N 101.16W
01/04/2013  M2.5 INCH        CROCKETT           TX   PUBLIC          

            COCORAHS 

0800 AM     SNOW             8 N BRADY               31.25N  99.33W
01/04/2013  E1.5 INCH        MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC          

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SSW OZONA             30.68N 101.22W
01/04/2013  M2.0 INCH        CROCKETT           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0806 AM     SNOW             BALLINGER               31.74N  99.96W
01/04/2013  M1.0 INCH        RUNNELS            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0811 AM     SNOW             3 SSW SAN ANGELO        31.41N 100.47W
01/04/2013  M4.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE    

0817 AM     SNOW             FORT MCKAVETT           30.83N 100.11W
01/04/2013  M1.0 INCH        MENARD             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0830 AM     SNOW             8 WSW BUFFALO GAP       32.24N  99.96W
01/04/2013  E2.0 INCH        TAYLOR             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0830 AM     SNOW             SWEETWATER              32.47N 100.41W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        NOLAN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

0830 AM     SNOW             ELDORADO                30.86N 100.60W
01/04/2013  E1.5 INCH        SCHLEICHER         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            1 TO 2 INCHES REPORTED IN ELDORADO. 

0832 AM     SNOW             MENARD                  30.92N  99.79W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        MENARD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

0840 AM     SNOW             HARRIET                 31.55N 100.32W
01/04/2013  E4.0 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC          

0900 AM     SNOW             SONORA                  30.57N 100.64W
01/04/2013  M1.0 INCH        SUTTON             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0900 AM     SNOW             MERTZON                 31.26N 100.82W
01/04/2013  M4.0 INCH        IRION              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER  

0900 AM     SNOW             VOCA                    31.01N  99.18W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC          

0900 AM     SNOW             FREDONIA                30.93N  99.11W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        MASON              TX   POST OFFICE     

0903 AM     SNOW             DOOLE                   31.40N  99.60W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        CONCHO             TX   PUBLIC          

0904 AM     SNOW             BLACKWELL               32.09N 100.32W
01/04/2013  E3.0 INCH        NOLAN              TX   POST OFFICE     

0911 AM     SNOW             RICHLAND SPRINGS        31.27N  98.94W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        SAN SABA           TX   POST OFFICE     

            ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES 

0935 AM     SNOW             20 E SONORA             30.57N 100.31W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        SUTTON             TX   PUBLIC          

            ALONG INTERSTATE 10 

0953 AM     SNOW             BARNHART                31.13N 101.17W
01/04/2013  M3.0 INCH        IRION              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0957 AM     SNOW             COLEMAN                 31.83N  99.43W
01/04/2013  E3.5 INCH        COLEMAN            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            3 TO 4 INCHES IN COLEMAN 

1007 AM     SNOW             9 SW VIEW               32.25N  99.99W
01/04/2013  E2.5 INCH        TAYLOR             TX   PUBLIC          

            AT CORONADOS CAMP 

[srainhoutx]

ABQ Updated storm totals:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             9 NW ARABELA            33.68N 105.27W
01/03/2013  E2.5 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM     SNOW             1 S CAPITAN             33.53N 105.59W
01/03/2013  M1.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM     SNOW             11 SE CEDARVALE         34.26N 105.56W
01/03/2013  M3.5 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 AM     SNOW             6 WSW BONITO LAKE       33.40N 105.80W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   PUBLIC

            SKI APACHE.

0600 AM     SNOW             9 SW CORONA             34.15N 105.70W
01/04/2013  E1.5 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             PICACHO                 33.35N 105.14W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             4 E ELK                 32.93N 105.26W
01/04/2013  E1.5 INCH        CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             16 NE DUNKEN            32.97N 105.00W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             16 SE CORONA            34.09N 105.40W
01/04/2013  E2.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             LAKE ARTHUR             33.00N 104.37W
01/04/2013  E2.5 INCH        CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             CARRIZOZO               33.64N 105.88W
01/04/2013  E2.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             DEXTER                  33.19N 104.37W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        CHAVES             NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0600 AM     SNOW             1 SSE LINCOLN           33.48N 105.38W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             4 NNW ANCHO             33.99N 105.75W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     SNOW             5 SW BONITO LAKE        33.40N 105.78W
01/04/2013  E2.0 INCH        LINCOLN            NM   OTHER FEDERAL

            SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0930 AM     SNOW             16 E ELKINS             33.69N 103.78W
01/04/2013  E1.0 INCH        CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

[srainhoutx]

The HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion favors the Euro and it ensembles so far for the next week Storm. The 12Z Euro is less progressive and is suggesting a closed core low (at 500mb) slowly meandering S of the Great Basin across Southern New Mexico before turning a bit ENE. The GEFS has trended a bit slower, but remains on the faster side of the 12Z solutions at this time. Once this system ejects into the Plains, some major changes lie ahead as yet another Winter Storm crosses the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains and perhaps phases with a storm system riding the Polar Jet from Western Canada late next week into next weekend ushering in some very chilly air that appears to entrench the West and the Plains all the way down to the Western/Central Gulf Coast. As always, we'll see if all this plays out as the computer models suggest...

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive full latitude long wave trough via the 12Z Euro Ensembles..

[jasons2k]

Yuck. Since the holidays are over now, I'm ready for spring!

Side note: I was in Austin last weekend & had forgotten how brown everything looks after a hard freeze. It was downright depressing looking with all the brown grass (sorry Porta). I hope we can skip it this winter for a change.

[Portastorm]

Yuck. Since the holidays are over now, I'm ready for spring!

Side note: I was in Austin last weekend & had forgotten how brown everything looks after a hard freeze. It was downright depressing looking with all the brown grass (sorry Porta). I hope we can skip it this winter for a change.

I've been trying to tell folks that "yes, it (drought) is really bad here." We had one period early in the fall where it rained a bit. Honestly, since October we haven't had much rain at all. Lake Travis is way, way down. Vegetation/grass is very brown. We're desperate for some ample rainfall.

A hard freeze would be devastating to the Austin area in several ways. First, the obvious effects of a hard freeze in any year. Second, it would just exponentially magnify the wildfire threat if the drought continues as we'd have a tinderbox of grass/vegetation around us.

[harpman]

Very impressive full latitude long wave trough via the 12Z Euro Ensembles..

Wow, that looks like a cold air pipeline!

[srainhoutx]

It’s time to start focusing on the next storm system which has a potential to be a high impact event for our Region. The 12Z suite of ensembles are in and while there remain some uncertainty on the eventual track and timing, it does appear the threat of a Winter Storm with both wintry and severe elements may well have an effect on New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma into Louisiana. At this time the on set of this developing storm would be Monday to our W across New Mexico and Tuesday into Wednesday depending on which solution ends up being more correct. We will need to keep an eye for development over the weekend into early next week as there are strong signals that a very potent dynamic Winter Storm will have an impact, be it wintry or severe.

[tireman4]

Not sure if anyone posted this from HGX NWS...but....I wonder (humm) what the last statement means...LOL


FXUS64 KHGX 042207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 PM CST FRI JAN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS THE COLD/CLOUDY/WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE TX
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET
HELPING TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
NEXT ONE LOOKING LIKE IT IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TO-
NIGHT/SAT (PER LATEST THE WV LOOPS).

THE PERSISTENT BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK BY SUN AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND THE BRIEF RIDGING DEVEL-
OPS IN ITS WAKE. BUT AS IT HAS BEEN THE TREND OF LATE...THIS VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD
THE STATE QUICKLY. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WE ARE STILL
SEEING MARKED DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING FOR THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF RETAINING A LONE
WOLF ROLE WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO HAVE
SPED UP WITH THE 12Z RUNS. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
TUES/TUES NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS
WE COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM (NO MATTER WHICH DAY IT ARRIVES). PROGS OF STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL INFLOW (40-50KTS)...FAVOURABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER
JET (LFQ) AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ALL SEEM TO BE
POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION. BEAR WATCH IN PLACE. 41


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Ptarmigan]

It’s time to start focusing on the next storm system which has a potential to be a high impact event for our Region. The 12Z suite of ensembles are in and while there remain some uncertainty on the eventual track and timing, it does appear the threat of a Winter Storm with both wintry and severe elements may well have an effect on New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma into Louisiana. At this time the on set of this developing storm would be Monday to our W across New Mexico and Tuesday into Wednesday depending on which solution ends up being more correct. We will need to keep an eye for development over the weekend into early next week as there are strong signals that a very potent dynamic Winter Storm will have an impact, be wintry or severe.

Somehow I get a feeling this could be a night event. Night storm events are common when there are cold fronts. I see more night events in fall and spring than in winter. Last January's storm was a morning event.

[harpman]

What does "bear watch in place" mean? Not quite sure.....

[C2G]

What does "bear watch in place" mean? Not quite sure.....

Just means we need to watch the situation closely for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Or, maybe we have a rampant, out of control bear population I wasn't aware of?

[jasons2k]

Hmm. Over 2" per HPC next week. I love that forecast. Not to sound too cynical....but I'll believe it when I see it.

[gocuse22]

00Z GFS drops Sugar Land to 23...IAH to 20...Dallas to 0

Long range

[C2G]

Looks like a wet day for southeast Texas.
Love this much needed rain.

[srainhoutx]

A very wet morning across Coastal Texas and Western Louisiana this morning. A wave of low pressure is SSE of Corpus Christi this morning providing lift and over running light to moderate showers from the Coastal Bend to Ft Polk. Temps are chilly in the lower 40's as the sub tropical jet remains noisy across our Southern Regions.

All eyes turn W toward the California Coast tomorrow as a storm system over the Pacific begins to move inland. While there remain some timing issues, it does appear that a very stormy pattern is ahead for Tuesday into Wednesday. The SPC has outlined a large portion of S/S Central/Central/SE/E Texas and possibly extending into Western Louisiana for a chance of storms, some possibly severe. The HPC paints 3-4 inch QPF amounts for Central/E Texas extending into Western Louisiana. The guidance continues to advertise a cold core upper low will develop across Texas and a surface low will form along the Coast and ride ENE setting the stage for a potential very heavy rainfall event for a large portion of our Region. If the trends continue, I would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches hoisted on Monday for parts of Central/SE/E/NE TX and perhaps portions of Louisiana. We'll need to monitor the SPC for the potential of a Slight Risk issuance in future updates as well.

[Portastorm]

Wouldn't mind seeing a 3-4 inch QPF "bomb" right over Austin this next week. We would welcome the rain.