January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise a very stormy and chilly pattern developing in the longer range.

[losmabies]

Are we in the Montgomery County area completely out of the woods as far as winter weather this weekend? From what I have been reading, I know that the models can not handle this type of weather easily, but we are planning some activities this weekend and I would rather be safe than sorry.

I know it would have to be "perfect" conditions for us to have anything, but we went from nothing a couple of days ago to now possible winter fun for the hill country area.

We had sleet today so that activity just has me thinking...

[wxman57]

Are we in the Montgomery County area completely out of the woods as far as winter weather this weekend? From what I have been reading, I know that the models can not handle this type of weather easily, but we are planning some activities this weekend and I would rather be safe than sorry.

I know it would have to be "perfect" conditions for us to have anything, but we went from nothing a couple of days ago to now possible winter fun for the hill country area.

We had sleet today so that activity just has me thinking...

No issues this weekend. Perhaps a little light rain Friday night, but the low will only dip to maybe the upper 30s with a high Saturday into the mid 50s. Warmer (less miserably cold) on Sunday.

[losmabies]

Thanks Wxman57! I wish there was the chance, but am happy to keep our plans

[Portastorm]

While I'm a fan of winter weather in Texas, any consideration of a developing McFarland Signature is troubling. Yes they are relatively rare but when they do happen, misery follows down here (busted pipes, dead plants, crops, and vegetation, etc.). We also have a lot of persons who have moved to Texas in recent years who will undoubtedly be clueless about how to prepare and handle things.

This will definitely be worth keeping an eye on.

Meanwhile, today's model trends are increasing the "giddiness" level of those of us in south central Texas as the progged snowflakes edge ever so closer.

[JackCruz]

Saw some sleet earlier on in Cypress! It was just a quick look...but nice nonetheless. Anyways, what's happening Saturday? Will the rain be gone before we drop to the mid 30's?

[srainhoutx]

For those interested, here is a link that explains well exactly what and how a McFarland Signature was developed and provides informative technical data regarding the effects that such a pattern can have across our Region and primarily for the long lasting affects to the Rio Grande Valley and agriculture. The detailed outline was written by Marshall J. McFarland...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[srainhoutx]

Ed, I'm watching that storm system with a careful eye. I'll be traveling in New Mexico next week and that system certainly has my full attention.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 PM EST WED JAN 02 2013

VALID JAN 02/1200 UTC THRU JAN 06/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES
==================================================================
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM APPROACHING CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
======================================
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT LINKS IT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HEADING TOWARDS
WESTERN CANADA. TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY
(DEEP CYCLONE) OVER THE BERING SEA SHOW A PREFERENCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST,
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A NEARLY CLOSED 500 HPA CYCLONE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE SLOWER AND DEEPER NON-SREF GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT
PATTERN HAS BEEN FAVORING THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AS WELL. A
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING RIDGE UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAI'I
ALSO FAVORS A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
CALIFORNIA, WHICH THE CANADIAN HAS STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARDS IN ITS
12Z RUN. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-SREF COMPROMISE HERE,
CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z NAM, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING ITS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
139 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS ON APPROACH FOR THE
BORDERLAND REGION FOR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT ARRIVING IN THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLD AIR TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS COLD AIR
MASS WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR ELEVATIONS
FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH THIS STORM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THAT AREA. EL PASO AND
OTERO COUNTIES COULD SEE AS MANY AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT WITH SNOW ENDING BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY.

NMZ414>417-TXZ418>424-031200-
/O.UPG.KEPZ.WS.A.0001.130103T1500Z-130104T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KEPZ.WS.W.0001.130103T1500Z-130104T1500Z/
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MESCALERO...MOUNTAIN PARK...TIMBERON...
CLOUDCROFT...SUNSPOT...APACHE SUMMIT...MAYHILL...SACRAMENTO...
PINON...CROW FLATS...DOWNTOWN...WEST EL PASO...UPPER VALLEY...
FORT BLISS...SOCORRO...EAST AND NORTHEAST EL PASO...HUECO TANKS...
LOMA LINDA...DELL CITY...CORNUDAS...SALT FLAT...SIERRA BLANCA...
FABENS...TORNILLO...FORT HANCOCK
139 PM MST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.



* EVENT: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS LOWLANDS. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME EAST
FACING SLOPES.

* TIMING: SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AND
LAST OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* IMPACT: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. ROAD SURFACES WILL BECOME LOCALLY DANGEROUS PACKED WITH
SNOW AND ICE.

* WINDS: EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ON WEST
SLOPES AND THROUGH PASSES. WINDS LESSENING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW LEVELS: A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE DOWN TO THE DESERT FLOOR FOR ALL LOCATIONS.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
BALLINGER...TO MENARD TO SONORA LINE...

...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS WEST OF A STERLING CITY...TO ELDORADO...TO SONORA LINE.
WITH COLD...DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
MAY START INITIALLY AS RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET...BUT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TXZ064>066-071>073-076>078-168-030600-
/O.NEW.KSJT.WW.Y.0001.130103T2100Z-130104T1200Z/
STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-
SUTTON-MENARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...
BALLINGER...WINTERS...MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...
ELDORADO...SONORA...MENARD
254 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

* EVENT....LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA CAUSING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF A STERLING
CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

[TexasBreeze]

The new zone forecast actually includes sleet for Thurs/Friday for Harris county!:)

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ213

[Snowman]

has anyone seen the latest GFS run? Houston is definitely NOT out of play to see some snow flurries! It looks like a very real possibility!

[rnmm]

has anyone seen the latest GFS run? Houston is definitely NOT out of play to see some snow flurries! It looks like a very real possibility!

That is so exciting!!

[srainhoutx]

I know we talked about this potential all last weekend and how it would be important to follow the shorter range guidance as the models often under/over estimate what may or may not happen. Clearly the guidance missed the sleet this morning across the Northern areas of SE Texas. I saw no model soundings that would support anything of the frozen nature falling this morning. Well, we know in fact it did. As Jeff mentioned, this is a classic winter weather type set up for Texas so expect the unexpected. IF nothing happens and we receive just some cold rain (SE Texas) with a sleet pellet or two mixed in or just a few snow flurries in Central Texas, no one will be disappointed.

18Z GFS:

01022012 18Z GFS 18zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif

[Snowman]

However I should mention that the NAM is not on board with the GFS

[JackCruz]

lksdfjlsdjf;lsdjfjsdfjsdfj *prays* please God! By the way it's cold out there. Just went for a jog and my feet and hands are number as hell. Love it!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Ensembles are in and there certainly is agreement for the time frame beginning around the 12th, +/- a couple of days for a fairly significant cold out break if the guidance is latching on to the pattern correctly. We will see...

GEFS:

01022012 12Z GEFS 12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

Euro:

01022012 12Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

GGEM:

01022012 12Z GGEM 12zGGEMEnsembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

[rnmm]

I didn't mean to over do it with my "that is exciting" post but I just can't help it, I am a kid at heart when it comes to snow!!!

[tireman4]

lksdfjlsdjf;lsdjfjsdfjsdfj *prays* please God! By the way it's cold out there. Just went for a jog and my feet and hands are number as hell. Love it!

I thought you said your crystal ball stated no winter weather for Houston? Hummm...LOL

[TexasBreeze]

Lol I said this event wouldn't amount to anything too, but weather does crazy things!:) I was suprised this morning!

[Snowman]

I would be cautiously optimistic. It is still very possible that this event ends up being nothing. We just have to see what the next model runs say in the next few hours and then begin to nowcast the rest of the way.