Mhmm, my crystal ball never lies.tireman4 wrote:Wow. Interesting. This early in the winter season. Ok, we have Jack Cruz saying, "No winter weather for Houston this winter season" LOL.JackCruz wrote:Quote me on this, Houston will get nothing this winter.
January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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Hot off the presses...the Update HPC Medium Range Discussion....highlight areas that are important and could offer clues as to what we can expect across the Rio Grande Valley/Central/SE/E Texasd into Louisiana...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012
VALID 12Z WED JAN 02 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 06 2013
...BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
CHANGES TAKING PLACE DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD BRING US TO A
SPLIT FLOW SETUP IN THE WEST BY DAY 3. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW IN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE MADE A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE VIA
OCCASIONAL RELOADING PERFORMED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE
PACIFIC. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...TOP THE RIDGE...AND THEN DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST.
RAINFALL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH REALLY ONLY THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINING IN PLAY FOR RAINFALL ON
DAYS 4/5. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE POLAR
FRONT FARTHER INTO THE GULF...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION BY DAYS 5-7.
THE PRIMARY AREAS OF UNCERTAINY IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE DEPTH
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE IN THE
MIDWEST...AND THE HANDLING OF SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST. THOUGH
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ABSENT OR GREATLY LIMITED BY A STEADY SUPPLY
OF COLD AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR...THE COLD MID/UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL MAINLY IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
...MODEL CHOICE...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT UPON THE PATTERN DESCRIBED
ABOVE...THERE ARE MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL
AT ONE TIME AND PLACE OR ANOTHER...BUT NOT ONE RUN DOES A GOOD JOB
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF FINALLY TRENDED
A LITTLE LESS AGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA DAY
3/4...BUT IT IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER...SUPPORTED BY ONLY
A HANDFUL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WE PREFER TO TAKE A LESSER
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE UKMET AND GFS
DO. TOWARD DAY 6/7...THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE SLOWER IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE OPERATIONAL BEING PARTICULARLY
STRONG/DEEP/SLOW. WE PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK OF THE GFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THIS IDEA ALSO HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN.
BURKE/FRACASSO/VOJTESAK
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012
VALID 12Z WED JAN 02 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 06 2013
...BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
CHANGES TAKING PLACE DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD BRING US TO A
SPLIT FLOW SETUP IN THE WEST BY DAY 3. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW IN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE MADE A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE VIA
OCCASIONAL RELOADING PERFORMED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE
PACIFIC. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...TOP THE RIDGE...AND THEN DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST.
RAINFALL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH REALLY ONLY THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINING IN PLAY FOR RAINFALL ON
DAYS 4/5. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE POLAR
FRONT FARTHER INTO THE GULF...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND COLD
WEATHER OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION BY DAYS 5-7.
THE PRIMARY AREAS OF UNCERTAINY IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE DEPTH
THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE IN THE
MIDWEST...AND THE HANDLING OF SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST. THOUGH
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ABSENT OR GREATLY LIMITED BY A STEADY SUPPLY
OF COLD AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR...THE COLD MID/UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL MAINLY IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
...MODEL CHOICE...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT UPON THE PATTERN DESCRIBED
ABOVE...THERE ARE MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL
AT ONE TIME AND PLACE OR ANOTHER...BUT NOT ONE RUN DOES A GOOD JOB
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF FINALLY TRENDED
A LITTLE LESS AGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA DAY
3/4...BUT IT IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER...SUPPORTED BY ONLY
A HANDFUL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WE PREFER TO TAKE A LESSER
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE UKMET AND GFS
DO. TOWARD DAY 6/7...THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE SLOWER IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE OPERATIONAL BEING PARTICULARLY
STRONG/DEEP/SLOW. WE PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK OF THE GFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THIS IDEA ALSO HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN.
BURKE/FRACASSO/VOJTESAK
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12z GFS is slightly wetter and shows possible wintry precip along the southern fringes of the hill country fwiw.
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Extended period of cold wet weather likely.
Changes underway this morning as large slow moving upper level trough drops southward west of CA toward Baja as lead short wave is starting to move eastward over MX. At the surface, features are starting to respond to the approaching trough over the western US with coastal surface warm front and surface low beginning to take shape off the lower TX coast. ENE winds have increased this morning north of the warm front which is well offshore the upper TX coast. Mid level cloud deck is advancing ENE in the SW flow aloft and this deck will thicken and lower with time today as warm moist air is lifted over the top of the retreat surface cold dome. Moisture return begins in earnest tonight and expect a rapid decline in conditions across the area as the low levels saturate. Will start to see fog and drizzle/light rain develop over the Gulf waters and shift inland tonight as the warm front nears the coast.
On Monday the first short wave ejects across the plains with the surface warm front likely moving just inland from the coast…possibly as far north as I-10 by Monday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely over the region on Monday first along and ahead of the warm front and then along and ahead of the cold front early Tuesday morning. While the warm front will be over the heart of this area, instability is greatly lacking with forecasted values of 200-500 J/kg compared to 1000-2000 J/kg on Christmas and this suggest a smaller severe threat compared to the Christmas event. Cold front cutting into the warm sector early Tuesday morning may result in a few marginal severe storms with the main threats being hail and strong winds.
Another concern will be rainfall as moisture levels will be very high for this time of year and there is a window from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for a period of cell training which is shown nicely in the Texas Tech WRF model. Given the high levels of moisture that will be in place this does raise some concern for flooding and this will need close watch on Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 2.0 inches appears likely Monday-Tuesday.
Extended:
Cold front slowly pushes offshore on Tuesday and becomes stationary as the upper flow is out of the SW and parallel to the boundary. Main upper trough remains anchored WSW of the region over N MX with short waves rotating through the trough and then into the southern plains. While the GFS had trended toward the wetter ECMWF over the past 24 hours the latest run is back to its drier pattern while the ECMWF remains firm on a cold wet pattern through the end of the week. With the cold front stalled off the coast and the main trough hanging back to the WSW this provides a good pattern for moisture to overrun the cold surface dome. The question is how much dry air sinks southward in the low levels and/or where does the front stall. Current thinking is that the front will stall close enough to the coast that moisture will remain plentiful over SE TX and the coastal bend with periods of rainfall developing from SW to NE during the entire period from Wed-early Friday. Additional widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches seems possible from Wed-Fri.
Other question to deal with is the threat for any frozen or freezing precipitation in the Wed-Fri period. ECMWF would suggest a chance of rain changing to snow NW of a line from LaGrange to Brenham to Conroe on Thursday as cooling aloft with the upper trough moves into the area. GFS shows a much drier profile and does not support snow in the area, although Thursday morning dewpoints at College Station are in the upper 20’s/low 30’s with air temperatures in the mid 30’s…but this would still suggest rain as there would be little room for evaporative cooling. For now will keep everything rain, as the upstream air mass while cold is not overly cold for this time of year and there is not significant model agreement on moisture or temperature profiles over the northwest 1/3rd of the area for Wed-Thur. Will need to keep a watchful eye on this aspect moving forward over the next 24-36 hours
Extended period of cold wet weather likely.
Changes underway this morning as large slow moving upper level trough drops southward west of CA toward Baja as lead short wave is starting to move eastward over MX. At the surface, features are starting to respond to the approaching trough over the western US with coastal surface warm front and surface low beginning to take shape off the lower TX coast. ENE winds have increased this morning north of the warm front which is well offshore the upper TX coast. Mid level cloud deck is advancing ENE in the SW flow aloft and this deck will thicken and lower with time today as warm moist air is lifted over the top of the retreat surface cold dome. Moisture return begins in earnest tonight and expect a rapid decline in conditions across the area as the low levels saturate. Will start to see fog and drizzle/light rain develop over the Gulf waters and shift inland tonight as the warm front nears the coast.
On Monday the first short wave ejects across the plains with the surface warm front likely moving just inland from the coast…possibly as far north as I-10 by Monday evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely over the region on Monday first along and ahead of the warm front and then along and ahead of the cold front early Tuesday morning. While the warm front will be over the heart of this area, instability is greatly lacking with forecasted values of 200-500 J/kg compared to 1000-2000 J/kg on Christmas and this suggest a smaller severe threat compared to the Christmas event. Cold front cutting into the warm sector early Tuesday morning may result in a few marginal severe storms with the main threats being hail and strong winds.
Another concern will be rainfall as moisture levels will be very high for this time of year and there is a window from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for a period of cell training which is shown nicely in the Texas Tech WRF model. Given the high levels of moisture that will be in place this does raise some concern for flooding and this will need close watch on Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of .50 to 2.0 inches appears likely Monday-Tuesday.
Extended:
Cold front slowly pushes offshore on Tuesday and becomes stationary as the upper flow is out of the SW and parallel to the boundary. Main upper trough remains anchored WSW of the region over N MX with short waves rotating through the trough and then into the southern plains. While the GFS had trended toward the wetter ECMWF over the past 24 hours the latest run is back to its drier pattern while the ECMWF remains firm on a cold wet pattern through the end of the week. With the cold front stalled off the coast and the main trough hanging back to the WSW this provides a good pattern for moisture to overrun the cold surface dome. The question is how much dry air sinks southward in the low levels and/or where does the front stall. Current thinking is that the front will stall close enough to the coast that moisture will remain plentiful over SE TX and the coastal bend with periods of rainfall developing from SW to NE during the entire period from Wed-early Friday. Additional widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches seems possible from Wed-Fri.
Other question to deal with is the threat for any frozen or freezing precipitation in the Wed-Fri period. ECMWF would suggest a chance of rain changing to snow NW of a line from LaGrange to Brenham to Conroe on Thursday as cooling aloft with the upper trough moves into the area. GFS shows a much drier profile and does not support snow in the area, although Thursday morning dewpoints at College Station are in the upper 20’s/low 30’s with air temperatures in the mid 30’s…but this would still suggest rain as there would be little room for evaporative cooling. For now will keep everything rain, as the upstream air mass while cold is not overly cold for this time of year and there is not significant model agreement on moisture or temperature profiles over the northwest 1/3rd of the area for Wed-Thur. Will need to keep a watchful eye on this aspect moving forward over the next 24-36 hours
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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MontgomeryCoWx
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JackCruz wrote:Mhmm, my crystal ball never lies.tireman4 wrote:Wow. Interesting. This early in the winter season. Ok, we have Jack Cruz saying, "No winter weather for Houston this winter season" LOL.JackCruz wrote:Quote me on this, Houston will get nothing this winter.
Nah you just take the easy negative way out. Your posts at times remind me of battered wife syndrome or battered sports fan syndrome... It's just too easy to be negative so a person states an opinion as fact with little to back it up other than "nothing good (snow) rarely happens to me"
Am I right Jack?
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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The Updated HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion minus the 12Z Euro In out...
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
===============================================
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATES, WITH THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
THE SLOWEST (AND MOST NORTHERLY) AND THE 12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF THE
QUICKEST (AND MOST SOUTHERLY). THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 500 HPA
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE THAT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EVEN LARGER
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD, WITH ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
FALLING WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 00Z/06Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE
SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN MEMBERS ARE
QUICKER/FARTHER SOUTH. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED
HERE (CLOSE TO A STRONGER/LESS WASHED OUT VERSION OF THE 09Z SREF
MEAN) WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE LARGER THAN
AVERAGE SPREAD SEEN IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
===============================================
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATES, WITH THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
THE SLOWEST (AND MOST NORTHERLY) AND THE 12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF THE
QUICKEST (AND MOST SOUTHERLY). THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 500 HPA
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE THAT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EVEN LARGER
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD, WITH ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
FALLING WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 00Z/06Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE
SLOWER/FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN MEMBERS ARE
QUICKER/FARTHER SOUTH. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED
HERE (CLOSE TO A STRONGER/LESS WASHED OUT VERSION OF THE 09Z SREF
MEAN) WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE LARGER THAN
AVERAGE SPREAD SEEN IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
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Winter weather is more difficult to forecast than hurricanes in Southeast Texas. In fact we have better chance to see a major hurricane make landfall than 20 inches of snow in 1895.
NWS-HG doesn't seem to overly concerned about any threat this coming weak.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
332 PM CST sun Dec 30 2012
The 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended drier during the middle/late week period and
closer to the last couple of GFS runs...so made some downward
adjustments to the probability of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Still a chance of rain near
the coast and offshore...but only a slight chance well inland during
this period. It does look cold with below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday
with a reinforcing cold front passing through on Thursday.
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srainhoutx
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The 15Z SREF ensemble mean as well as the 18Z NAM/GFS are suggesting a bit more energy moving across S Central/SE Texas on Thursday. That would fit with the arrival of a secondary surge of 'colder' air and the lifting out of the trough across the Region. We are getting close to the range where small scale features at 500/700mb levels that may begin to show up, so with that we'll continue to monitor and turn a bit more attention to the shorter range meso guidance to see if they offer any hints over the next 36-48 hours.
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It looks like the latest GFS shows snow flurries for Houston!
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Andrew
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Snowman wrote:It looks like the latest GFS shows snow flurries for Houston!
yea 18z shows a more defined shortwave coming from British Columbia heading south. Colder air filters south and east and as a result mix together and show some possible winter precip for the area.
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I know it's a sunday and and this GFS run should be taken with a grain of salt but this board is surprisingly quiet for the GFS showing snow flurries 96 to 102 hours out
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Andrew
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I think a lot of people are in a wait and see mode. Being in SE Texas a lot of players have to set up pretty much perfectly in order to get winter precip down here so people are being cautiously optimistic. If the 00z shows the potential more than more people may latch on. For now its a wait and see scenario.Snowman wrote:I know it's a sunday and and this GFS run should be taken with a grain of salt but this board is surprisingly quiet for the GFS showing snow flurries 96 to 102 hours out
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wxman57
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Looks more like cold, miserable rain with a few sleet pellets possible Wed/Thu. Take a look at the latest GFS meteogram (18Z). Note the precipitously falling temps starting New Year's Day and continuing through the next day.
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I was thinking the exact same thing. Don't get me wrong; I appreciate all the great discussions all members contribute to. The detailed weather maps and discussions srain brings forth are great and informative.tireman4 wrote:It is always a hurry up and wait scenario. I think it will fine tune itself (Euro and GFS) as we get closer. Wxman 57 signs on, I am on. LOL
BUT, when wxman57 jumps on the wagon, that's when I start believing.
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Portastorm
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The 21z SREF (short-range ensemble) continues to suggest the possibility of frozen precip for south central Texas during the early morning hours of Thursday.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p03087.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p03087.gif
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Andrew
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Also FWIW the 00z NAM is coming in a lot slower and slightly stronger with the second shortwave.Portastorm wrote:The 21z SREF (short-range ensemble) continues to suggest the possibility of frozen precip for south central Texas during the early morning hours of Thursday.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p03087.gif
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Portastorm
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Yes Andrew ... I just saw that! The NAM has progressively strengthened that low at the base of the trough in northern Mexico in the last few runs. That will definitely be something that we in south central Texas and even southeast Texans should keep an eye on. Very interesting development.Andrew wrote:Also FWIW the 00z NAM is coming in a lot slower and slightly stronger with the second shortwave.Portastorm wrote:The 21z SREF (short-range ensemble) continues to suggest the possibility of frozen precip for south central Texas during the early morning hours of Thursday.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p03087.gif
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Andrew
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And now the GFS is coming in faster and not as strong.....Portastorm wrote:Yes Andrew ... I just saw that! The NAM has progressively strengthened that low at the base of the trough in northern Mexico in the last few runs. That will definitely be something that we in south central Texas and even southeast Texans should keep an eye on. Very interesting development.Andrew wrote:Also FWIW the 00z NAM is coming in a lot slower and slightly stronger with the second shortwave.Portastorm wrote:The 21z SREF (short-range ensemble) continues to suggest the possibility of frozen precip for south central Texas during the early morning hours of Thursday.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p03087.gif
Edit to add that the GFS does slowdown the shortwave as it rounds the base of the trough. Also a little farther south.
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