December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[weatherrabbit]

ay 6:53 this morning, Huntsville reported light snow? anyone see any flurries last night?

that has been since 7 yesterday evening. been seeing the snow icon on my smartphone all this morning. no snow on the
ground its sunny and 33.

[srainhoutx]

Nice visible shot of the snow cover across New Mexico/Panhandle/N Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas highlands from the Christmas Storm.

[wxman57]

ay 6:53 this morning, Huntsville reported light snow? anyone see any flurries last night?

It's an automated station report (the snow). Most likely an error. No actual observer is reporting snow. Here's a meteogram based on the 12Z GFS. Interesting temperature curve around New Year's. Steady warm-up followed by a 2-day plunge. Wet New Year's Eve.

[weatherrabbit]

ASOS do that time to time, Thanks wxman57!

[Andrew]

BTW the Houston County tornado was an F3:

http://www.ktre.com/story/20428557/nws- ... do-as-ef-3

NOUS44 KHGX 262219 CCA
PNSHGX
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-072300-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT ON EF-3 TORNADO IN HOUSTON COUNTY...

NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS CONFIRMED AT LEAST ONE TORNADO IN HOUSTON
COUNTY NEAR PENNINGTON. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF-3 TORNADO WITH
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND SEVERAL BUILDINGS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED NEAR
THE TOWN OF PENNINGTON. THE TORNADO PATH WAS PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY
287 ABOUT 1 MILE NORTH OF PENNINGTON. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS THE TEAM CONTINUES TO COLLECT INFORMATION ON THIS
TORNADO AND POSSIBLY OTHER TORNADOES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

[skidog40]

question: what causes echo's on a radar and all the green by Brownsville echo's.

[srainhoutx]

question: what causes echo's on a radar and all the green by Brownsville echo's.

NOUS64 KBRO 262148
FTMBRO
Message Date: Dec 26 2012 21:48:12

The BRO Radar is down at this time. Expected return to service 12/27/2012.

[Andrew]

Also here is a good article on false echoes etc:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/247/

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active pattern in place and will continue for the next several days.

Most locations fell to and below freezing before midnight with IAH falling to 31. After midnight clouds rolled in from the SSW and winds increased from the ENE raising temperatures into the upper 30’s and low 40’s currently. Moisture return is in response to the next storm system which will move across TX on Friday. CRP radar shows light echoes already developing over the Gulf waters south of Matagorda Bay and this is likely the start of drizzle and light rain which will spread northward today. Meso scale short term models are in good agreement that light rain will move inland from the Gulf this afternoon as the low levels continue to moisten and moisture increases ahead of a warm front/coastal trough.

Upper level trough will swing quickly across the state on Friday with another strong cold front pushing across the area. Moisture return ahead of this front will be plentiful to produce a round of showers and thunderstorms on Friday along the boundary. Rainfall today through tonight will be mainly light with higher amounts expected on Friday as rainfall becomes slightly more convective in nature. Do not expect severe weather with this system, but a few strong storms will be possible east of I-45 where instability will be highest.

Strong cold air advection will onset behind the front on Friday with temperatures falling quickly into the 40’s after sunset under strong NW winds. Winds will be in the 15-20mph this time around instead of the 40-50mph we saw two days ago. Clear and cold conditions over the weekend with highs in the 50’s and lows near freezing.

New Year’s Storm System:

Main focus is quickly turning to a projected powerful storm system to affect the state from late Sunday through Wednesday of next week. GFS and CMC are the more progressive of the models showing an open trough passing across the state on Wednesday with most of the weather on Monday and Tuesday, while the ECMWF is much slower and cut off with the system and shows an extended period of cold wet weather through much of next week. Pattern of late has been highly progressive and the GFS has a good deal of support from its ensemble members, so will side with the faster models. Moisture begins to return from the western Gulf in earnest late Sunday and the combined effects of the moisture return and lift over a warm front south of the area will support light rain developing and spreading inland from the coastal bend area. Models are suggesting some really tropical type moisture pushes into the area late Monday with PWS values nearing record 2.0 inch levels for early January. Think this is likely overdone to some degree, but a lot of moisture looks to move into the area regardless so the threat for widespread rainfall…some heavy…will be possible starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Could see some severe weather also with a warm front over the region, but it is too early for specifics on that considering the event is still about 4-5 days away.

Note:

NWS survey teams investigated the tornado damage in Houston County from Christmas morning and determined the rating as EF-3 damage with estimated winds of 150mph, a path length of 7 miles and path width of 300 yards. The tornado completely destroyed two structures and heavily damaged others in the area. Most of the damage along the path was in the EF-1 and EF-2 range. The tornado was on the ground for roughly 10 minutes.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST THU DEC 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY
MORNING FROM SE TX NEWD ACROSS LA ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD BE ONGOING. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY MOVE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION EWD ACROSS LA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SRN LA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG WITH 70 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD HELP A FEW STORMS PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS THREAT MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN MS BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 12/27/2012

[jasons2k]

Interesting...Jeff is going with the GFS. The NWS is going with the ECMWF. Wonder who will win out??

From NWS AFD:

EMERGING CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE NOW SWINGING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS
SLOWER FROPA/DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW SOLUTION. WHILE BOTH OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTCOMES...THE
ECMWF PERFORMANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WINDOW HAS BEEN AS A BIT
BETTER. AS SUCH WILL GO AHEAD AND RE-TREND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Praying for the Euro! Want more cold and LOTS of precip.

[jeff]

Interesting...Jeff is going with the GFS. The NWS is going with the ECMWF. Wonder who will win out??

From NWS AFD:

EMERGING CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE NOW SWINGING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS
SLOWER FROPA/DEEPER CLOSED UPPER LOW SOLUTION. WHILE BOTH OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE OUTCOMES...THE
ECMWF PERFORMANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WINDOW HAS BEEN AS A BIT
BETTER. AS SUCH WILL GO AHEAD AND RE-TREND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

While I am liking the GFS more as the pattern has been very progressive, the ECMWF solution is a viable option still. One thing that does give some support to the ECMWF even on the GFS is the apparent lack of any upstream kicking system which would support a more cut-off slower moving system...just to much uncertainty to really picj one over the other besides the pattern this fall has been progressive.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, one of the things I am seeing is a bit of a slowing down in the wave length pattern from that of a progressive short wave length to that of a bit longer wave length over the N Pacific. What I am watching is the blocking pattern developing and the EPO going negative as well as a PNA spike to positive. While I agree that the progressive pattern has certainly been the theme, there does appear to be some changes ahead and the wave length pattern slows down a bit and tends to favor what the European Centre suite of guidance (operational and its ensembles) suggest. It does appear we have a mountain torque progressing E from Eurasia as well. The pattern appears to be changing a bit in my humble opinion.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Louisiana, the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storm issued for tomorrow...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST THU DEC 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SRN LA...SRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN TX FRI
MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY FORM INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
TREK FROM LA INTO MS BY 00Z. BEHIND THIS LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS LA/MS AFTER 21Z AS THE MAIN UPPER VORTICITY
MAX NEARS.

SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL HELP BRING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ASHORE
WITH NEAR 60 F AS FAR N AS JACKSON MS BY 00Z. DESPITE LITTLE
HEATING...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WILL FUEL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INCLUDING ALL OF SRN LA...
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 12Z ALONG THE
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER ERN TX INTO NRN LA...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FORCING
INCREASES. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LONG...WITH SOME VEERING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY FORM LINEARLY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THIS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

..JEWELL.. 12/27/2012

[Belmer]

I actually reached my low temperature tonight. About an hour ago it was 51 here in Pasadena. Now 52 and hourly forecast shows the temp will continue to rise into the overnight as moisture increases. Forecasted about 58 at 6:00am. Sure is a gloomy day outside. Needed to get some yard work done, hopefully I can get it done Saturday before the next big storm comes in.

[Ptarmigan]

Nice to see the light rain. Feels just like winter.

[jasons2k]

Warm front must have setup near the coast; 20 degree temp. gradient between Galveston & the Liberty/Conroe areas.

[rnmm]

Warm front must have setup near the coast; 20 degree temp. gradient between Galveston & the Liberty/Conroe areas.

I am no weather genius and have never claimed to be but I agree it is warmer and muggy outisde and just plain gross!

[Andrew]

Warm front must have setup near the coast; 20 degree temp. gradient between Galveston & the Liberty/Conroe areas.

I am no weather genius and have never claimed to be but I agree it is warmer and muggy outisde and just plain gross!