December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[ronyan]

43.5F here and falling rapidly, wind is literally howling around the house outside, some gusts must be approaching 50 mph.

[weatherrabbit]

and david paul said we may be going through this again next week.

[rnmm]

The weather for my area wasn't too bad today, just a few winds with no rain to speak of, unfortunatly that is not the case for all. I hope everyone is safe tonight! The winds are still strong here tonight.

Maybe next week we can see some of that "S" word?!?! One could only hope!!

[skidog40]

im interested in clouds to west tonight they seem to want to hook up with low

[rnmm]

im interested in clouds to west tonight they seem to want to hook up with low

What would that mean?

[skidog40]

what just popped up nw of houston

[srainhoutx]

and david paul said we may be going through this again next week.

We certainly appear to be heading toward a very active period. Another storm system is moving inland in California tomorrow and then that cut off cold core upper low drops S near Baja next weekend. What we have working in our favor for the winter weather lover is a building snow pack across the Plains and the Rockies. The storm threat near New Years Eve may be worth monitoring. A noisy sub tropical jet and these potent trough do appear to be digging further S as we end December...

[skidog40]

anyonw radar watching, w of college station just turned blue

[Belmer]

anyonw radar watching, w of college station just turned blue

You have an image/radar you can post to support this? Not seeing it on any radars I'm looking at.

[skidog40]

intellicast radar

[ronyan]

Appears to me to be false echos showing up there for a couple of frames.

[skidog40]

i see it it different places, goes away. sw of abilene now

[txsnowmaker]

Another forum has a new post that says that there is a report of snow flurries north of Highway 105.

[JackCruz]

Cypress is already at 36. And the dew point is at 25...I'm ready for the another bust! We're almost at the freezing mark and it's not even 10pm yet.

[txsnowmaker]

Anyone else notice the white/gray radar imagery showing up in parts of Metro Houston on KHOU's radar? (see http://www.khou.com/weather/radar?radar ... &img=0&c=y)

[Belmer]

Clouds are slowly breaking away here. Further the Low moves NE, the sooner it will clear as it drags any moisture it has with it. Temps should continue to drop as skies clear. We were forecasted to be in the 40s at about this time, however, I've been sitting in the upper 30s here in Pasadena for a few hours. I believe we will get colder than forecasted by a few degrees tonight as long as this crazy wind can calm down. Still blowing pretty hard here.

[nuby3]

ay 6:53 this morning, Huntsville reported light snow? anyone see any flurries last night?

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Progressive weather pattern over the southern US to continue.

Winds still coming down after the powerhouse wind event yesterday afternoon/evening with frequent gust to 40-50mph…for the second time in less than a week. Deep surface cyclone now moving into the OH Valley with skies clearing from WSW to ENE across SE TX under continued cold air advection pattern with temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the lower 20’s. Upstream air mass passing over the snow covered plains of N TX and OK will result in little modification today as solar energy goes into snow melt instead of warming the near surface air. With this in mind and NW winds continuing through much of the day, highs will only climb into the mid to upper 40’s under mainly sunny skies. Cold tonight as winds go nearly calm and skies remain clear…although could see some high level cirrus clouds pass over the region…but these rarely prevent cooling. Most areas will see lows in the 26-32 range except for the typical warmer spots (inside the Beltway and along the coast).

Coastal trough begins to take shape off the coastal bend early Thursday with a rapid increase in cloud cover as moisture is brought northward over top of the retreating cold surface dome. By afternoon isentropic lift may be enough to produce a few showers across the area. Highs will warm into the 50’s as winds turn more ESE on Thursday. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next powerful cold front. Surface trough will lift NE along the coast with light to moderate showers streaming northward out of the Gulf. Cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon with a line of showers and thunderstorms. Current thinking is that warm unstable air mass will remain out over the Gulf waters and the warm front will not move inland and this should negate a severe weather threat…however elevated instability may be enough to produce a few strong storms on the frontal boundary.

Once again windy behind this front, but not the kind of winds we saw yesterday. Should see NW 15-25mph Friday night under strong cold air advection. I am tempted to go a little colder than guidance for the weekend with the snow pack lingering to our north and fresh Canadian air pouring down the plains across this snow pack…however some degree of melting will occur between now and Friday night. Will stick with highs in the 50’s on Saturday under sunny skies and a light freeze similar to tonight on Sunday morning.

New Year’s Storm System:
Attention will quickly focus on another potential high impact storm system starting late Sunday and continuing through New Year’s Day. Model are having a tough time with this feature as with the Christmas Day event with the GFS more open and progressive versus the ECMWF and CMC more closed off and stronger. Given the current highly progressive flow across the US, will side toward the GFS, but the system may be somewhat slower than what this model shows. Anyhow the track of the core of the upper low/trough looks to be further south than the Christmas system which brings the threat for winter weather deeper into TX and suppresses the possible warm front closer to the coast. Parameters look to be coming together for another bout of severe weather across the area…possibly more focused deeper into the region than the past event yesterday. Still a ways off and things will no doubt change between now an early next week.

Christmas Day Storm Reports:

***Damage survey will be conducted today over Houston and Trinity Counties to determine tornado intensity and damage paths)***

Madisonville, Madison: numerous trees and roofs blown off along HWY 21 (possible tornado)

9 NW Crockett, Houston: tornado report by public near Houston County Lake

13 SE Crockett, Houston: tornado damage to a building and bank on 287. Large tornado recorded on cell phone relayed to broadcast media.

15 SE Crockett, Trinity: spotter reported a tornado on the ground moving across a pasture.

Lovelady, Houston: Lovelady fire chief report wind gust to 80mph

Tomball, Harris: *1 fatal* Non-Thunderstorm wind gust to 50mph resulted in numerous downed trees. Man was struck and killed by falling tree.

Cleveland, Liberty: Large Pine tree downed 8 miles SE of Cleveland (possible tornado)

Katy, Harris: Grass fire developed late in the afternoon along Katy Hockley Cut-off Rd and Clay Rd. 3 fire departments responded due to the strong winds. No homes were threatened

Corpus Christi, Live Oak: 200 acre wildfire burned 2 homes and 1 vehicle in the Hideaway Hills subdivision. Winds gusting to 50mph forced the evacuation of 90 residents as the fire spread rapidly. TX Forest service crews responded with local FD’s to bring the fire under control and saved over 50 homes

Dallas, Dallas: 2-4 inches of snow recorded across the metro area.

Plano: 3.0 inch snow



Tuesday Wind Gust:
BUSH IAH: 51
College Station: 54
Tomball: 46
Wharton: 45
Conroe: 49
Hobby Airport: 56
Brenham: 46
Bay City: 44
Galveston: 47
Lake Jackson: 46
Pearland: 51
Palacios: 53
Huntsville: 52
Bay City: 39
Victoria: 48

[jasons2k]

I got down to 34 this morning. Didn't bother covering the plants (it was Christmas) so I skated by. Will cover tonight though...

[srainhoutx]

Dropped to 32 here in NW Harris County this morning. I have some yard clean up to do with all the high winds yesterday and last night. I suspect we will not make it out of the 40's up here today with the chilly flow from the N over the snow to our N. Tonight may well bring the coldest air we have seen so far to the Region as High Pressure will be overhead and ideal radiational cooling sets up. Temps may dip down to the mid 20's N of the Urban Heat areas, but I wouldn't be surprised to see freezing temps reach near Downtown Houston. As Jeff mentioned in his morning update, a very active pattern looks to continue as we head toward the end of 2012. A quick moving short wave trough/front passes Friday and then all eyes turn toward the next system dropping S off the California/Baja Pacific Coast. HPC Morning Update regarding the medium range outlook...


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 29 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 02 2013

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
AFTER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL STORM QUICKLY DEPARTS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN. ENERGY
WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN
TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THE
NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
WHILE DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE U.S....THERE ARE SOME
DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE MODELS EVEN EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EAST...MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF THE BROAD TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS/ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARE PRETTY WELL TO EACH
OTHER WITH THE EVALUATION OF THE STORM...THEY ARE GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FASTER WITH EXITING THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
RUNS. ALSO...A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH LOW POSITIONS AT 00Z ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. ANY CHANGES IN THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PRETTY BIG IMPACT
ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

OUT WEST...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DIGGING THE ENERGY
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SOME
DIFFERENCES DO EVOLVE BY EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARING 00Z GUIDANCE
FROM THIS MORNING...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL HOLD
A CLOSED VORTEX BACK OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO
COASTS...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE STILL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES WITHIN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE DAY 3-4 FORECAST FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT WAS BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
DAY 5-7 FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT WITH MORE WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE IT WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER/MORE HELD BACK
WITH THE ENERGY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO
COAST...WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF 00Z DETERMINISTIC
RUNS AND SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


GERHARDT