December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Noting some rotation with the broken line in Montgomery County extending NE

[tireman4]

Yep, agreed. Winds are screaming in from the south....

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto Counties. Also numerous trees down in Walker Couty with cable wires across I-45 in Huntsville. The Interstate is closed in both directions.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity Counties.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN TX INTO THE GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES TO WRN SC...

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN TX
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT ON 1530Z WV IMAGERY OVER W TX/
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BEFORE REACHING THE TN VALLEY BY 26/12Z.
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT WAVE WILL
PROMOTE VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE GULF
STATES. MEANWHILE...A DUO OF LEAD SHORT WAVES /OVER LA AND ERN TX AS
OF 1530Z/ WILL QUICKLY EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT SYSTEM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A TX HILL COUNTRY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS NRN LA/MS AND INTO MIDDLE TN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. A COINCIDENT POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS E CNTRL TX...SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE WILL OCCUR...BROADENING THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER THE
GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...A SUBTLE N-S SURFACE TROUGH OVER S CNTRL TX
WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EWD THROUGH THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...REACHING WRN GA BY
26/12Z.

...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
STRONG/SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AND CNTRL/SRN LA IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND ONGOING WAA. AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS AN INTENSE
LOW LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/ THAT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND
BROADEN TODAY COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM.
OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS AT FWD AND CRP REFLECTED STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.2-8.4 C/KM. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EML THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER ERN TX/WRN LA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ATTENDANT TO AN
APPROACHING MID-UPPER JET /90-100 KT 500 MB JET AND 120-130 KT 250
MB/. ADDITIONALLY...USING A MODIFIED 12Z FWD SOUNDING...MINIMAL CINH
REMAINS OVER TX...SUGGESTING CONVECTION IS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED.

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER
/INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES/ MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES...SUBSEQUENTLY
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND PROMOTING STRONG
ROTATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF SE TX...CNTRL/SRN LA/MS/AL...WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONSEQUENTLY TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE /DEMARCATED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
WRN GULF/ MAY VERY TEMPORARILY DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT IN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY
ARRIVES WITH THE E TX SHORT WAVE. AS SUCH...THE EXPECTED LIMITED
TEMPORAL THREAT OF DISCRETE CELLS WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO HIGH
RISK ATTM...THOUGH THE CATEGORICAL THREAT WILL BE REEVALUATED AT
20Z.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN QLCS DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING EMBEDDED FAST-MOVING BOW
ECHOES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/MESO-VORTICES AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
LA AND THE SRN HALF OF MS. THE NARROW LINE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS
/PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS/ WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
GULF STATES...REACHING WRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE BY 26/12Z.

..DISPIGNA/COHEN.. 12/25/2012

The attachment 12252012 1630Z SPC day1otlk_20121225_1630_prt.gif is no longer available

[Wendy 90]

Bust for College Station. All I wanted was some good rain. Just a little wind that is over and a few showers.

[JackCruz]

Bust for Cypress/jersey village area. Sun is out, shinning ever so bight.

The weather channel is the only one that has us in the 20s (28 tonight and tomorrow.....whats up with everyone else?

[srainhoutx]

Early reports from HGX:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TORNADO          9 NW CROCKETT           31.41N  95.56W
12/25/2012                   HOUSTON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 

0922 AM     TORNADO          13 SE CROCKETT          31.18N  95.30W
12/25/2012                   HOUSTON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE ON 287 WITH A DESTROYED 
            BUILDING. LOST SECTION OF ROOF ON BANK. 

0922 AM     TORNADO          15 SE CROCKETT          31.16N  95.28W
12/25/2012                   TRINITY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO PASSED THROUGH PASTURE 
            BEHIND HOME. 

0930 AM     TSTM WND GST     LOVELADY                31.13N  95.45W
12/25/2012  E80 MPH          HOUSTON            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOVELADY FIRECHIEF REPORT WIND GUST OF 80 MPH 

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-260045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0016.121225T1638Z-121226T0300Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1038 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SUSTAINED WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MID-EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* IMPACT...LOOSE ITEMS AND TREE LIMBS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME
POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR WHERE POWER LINES COLLIDE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1037 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ROMAN FOREST...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF KINGWOOD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...ROMAN FOREST...SPLENDORA...PLUM
GROVE AND DAYTON LAKES.

[JackCruz]

Are we going to hit the 20s tonight and tomorrow

[ronyan]

Are we going to hit the 20s tonight and tomorrow

Looks like the wind will keep temps higher tonight but tomorrow may be a different story, check the NWS forecast for your area.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1037 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTH OF LIVINGSTON TO CLEVELAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
20 MILES WEST OF CHESTER TO 16 MILES NORTH OF KINGWOOD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...LIVINGSTON...CHESTER...SHEPHERD...NORTH CLEVELAND...
GOODRICH AND SEVEN OAKS.

[jasons2k]

First line came through. Not much rain but a lot of wind. I'm wedged between the slot right now. The front itself is moving thru the Woodlands now and is almost here - I can see pretty TCU going-up just to my NW. So close to exploding....hehe...will probably happen just after it passes me.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Brazoria/Galveston and Southern Harris Counties head up. Storms developing rapidly SW of HWY 59 Corridor

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports damage in Cleveland with numerous trees down from possible tornado

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Very active weather in progress this morning!

Tornado Outbreak underway across the Gulf coast.

Tornado Watch in effect until 400pm for most of SE TX, but main risk will be in the next few hours.

Powerful storm system over N TX with rapidly deepening surface low over SE TX producing gusty winds of 35-45mph. Storms are finally starting to develop along a prefrontal boundary right along the US 59 corridor. Thus far capping has held behind the lead short wave now over the MS valley area. However a powerful jet max is punching into the base of the upper level trough and is cutting into the warm sector and this should lead to explosive storm development in the next hour along and east of US 59. Given the tremendous shear in place and moderate instability tornadoes and wind damage will be the main threat. Greatest tornado threat is along the warm front from Madisonville to Lake Livingston where tornadoes and damage have already occurred this morning.

All severe weather should be east of our region by 100pm with a major outbreak over LA and MS this afternoon and tonight.

Very strong winds of 30-45mph will continue into the afternoon hours as the strong cold front moves over the region. Temperatures will fall from the mid to upper 70’s quickly into the 50’s and then the 40’s this afternoon as strong cold air advection ensues out of N TX and the snow covered plains. Freezing temperatures are likely tonight NW of US 59 even with strong winds and wind chills will bottom out in the lower 20’s or upper 10’s.

[unome]

cell popping in Cypress area, hoping it's our last hurrah...

[ronyan]

Not a bust yet folks, now is the time to be watching! ^^

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports damage in Madisonville with roofs off buildings and wood building on road way