December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[Belmer]

While the rain was coming down in sheets here in Pasadena, the wind was just incredibly powerful. I was afraid at one point my tree in the front yard was going to blow over. Not sure what the gusts were, but if I had to guess, that thin line of storms easily produced tropical storm force winds.

[txflagwaver]

WOW...The wind was just inedible just before 3am...when it wake me up I thought it was rain...then the rain started...wow again...that was wild! only lasted maybe 15 minutes but that brought back memories of Ike. Have not been out to see if any tree limbs down...lights flickered briefly but stayed on.......Wow!

[Alvin Girl]

Front just passed here south of Alvin. Very loud as it roared through. Highest gust 33 mph. Lights flickered a few times, also woke me from deep sleep (my room faces north). The wind moved my son's wagon from the back porch to halfway to the front fence (cleared a good half acre of real estate)! Back to bed now.

[srainhoutx]

Power back but N winds gusting in the 30+ MPH range. Dew points have crashed from the 60's to the teens in less than an hour...Wow!

[Belmer]

Our friends up north posted an interesting discussion this morning:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY
DECIDE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS TROUGH...AND THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. TO
DETERMINE A POTENTIAL TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW...THE LATITUDE OF THE
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN BE USED...AS UPPER LOWS TEND TO FOLLOW
BOUNDARY OF COLD/WARM AIR. THEREFORE THE ECMWF FOLLOWS THE FRONT
AND HAS A TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...AND BRINGS RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE
GFS ACTUALLY PULLS THE SHALLOW FRONT NORTHWARD CHRISTMAS DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND DOESNT BRING THE COLDEST AIR INTO
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ALL PRECIP WOULD BE OVER BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE
SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONTS...AND AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE SOLUTION
PULLING THE FRONT BACK NORTH. IN SUMMARY...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE IN
PLAY THAT WILL DETERMINE THE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NORTH TEXAS
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...AND IT WILL ALL BEGIN WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS TROUGH IS DEEP AND
FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE...ALLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY
TROUGH REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEN THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHALLOW AND WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS...AND SNOW CHANCES
WOULD BE ZERO. FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WILL FORECAST COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT MEXMOS IS FORECASTING FOR CHRISTMAS...BUT
WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW.

[Katdaddy]

The line of storm blasted through League City earlier and woke me up as well. Recorded a gust of 30 MPH but I am sure there were so much higher gusts around. Shades of IKE! The wind howling as I type and the winds will be strong later this morning with gusts of 40-45 MPH. The downtown Canyon Effect will fun today.

[Portastorm]

Since fropa, steady winds here in Austin of 25-30 mph with gusts to 42. Unofficial reports of gusts near 50 mph. Spotty power outages around town and, unfortunately, several large fires (structure and brush). Winds continue here as well.

[unome]

a lot of power outages http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html

[PaulEInHouston]

Had a strong gusty cell associated with fropa here in League City at 3:00 and station recorded a record high wind gust of 50.1 mph at 3:01 with a record high average sustained speed of 34.4 mph. Gotta love it...some of my lawn furniture is now in the bottom of the pool, and I thought I had it secured well enough.

[ticka1]

Rode the bus into work - man that wind is blowing...downtown is fun - the wind-tunnel affect.

[jasons2k]

It poured here (sounded like it) but I only collected .03". The lightning zapped my iMac. It is dead. Thank goodness for Apple care!

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Powerful cold front sweeping into the Gulf of Mexico

Very strong NW winds blasting across the area this morning with frequent gusts to 45-50mph.

Red Flag Warning in effect for today.

Cold front has moved well into the Gulf of Mexico clearing the coast around 300am. Since then very strong winds have affected the area with the following gust recorded:

N Jetty: 61
Palacios: 48
Sugar Land: 46
Conroe: 47
College Station: 43
Eagle Point: 40

Impressive surface pressure rises are ongoing across the area and expect winds to weaken slightly over the next 1-2 hours only to pick back up into the 30-40mph range by mid morning. Think the strongest winds associated with the frontal passage are over, but would not be surprised to see a few more 40-45mph gust today especially across the coastal counties and in the corridor from Columbus to Victoria.

Region-wide wind advisory and coastal Gale Warnings are in effect.

Fire Weather:
RH has fallen from 61% to 28% in the last 3 hours as the very dry and cold air mass pours into the region. With winds of 30-40mph expected, very dry air, and dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be high today. Some areas, mainly east of I-45 did see a quick .10 to .50 of an inch of rainfall with the front overnight, but the bone dry air mass will dry any surface moisture quickly this morning. Feel the highest fire weather threat will be west of I-45 and north of I-10 where fuels are driest. Strong winds will make fire containment difficult. Air mass is even drier on Friday, but winds will be much lower with high pressure overhead.

Marine:
Very hazardous on the open waters (lakes/bays/Gulf) this morning with frequent gusts at or above 45mph. Gale Warning is in effect for all Gulf waters and the inland bays through this afternoon for winds of 30-45mph. NW winds are currently pushing water out of Galveston Bay and tidal forecasting models show water level falling to nearly 1-2 feet below MSL by this afternoon…hence a Low Water Advisory is in effect for the risk of vessel groundings in the Bay and Houston Ship Channel.

Long Range:
Little agreement within the models for the Christmas week storm system. GFS and ECMWF have nearly switch positions from yesterday on their track of the upper level system on Christmas Day and the associated weather across the state. Given the ongoing blizzard over the central plains yesterday with a decent snow pack from CO to IA this morning and the fact that shallow arctic air masses tend to bleed southward more than forecast by models….I am leaning toward the colder ECMWF solution. Suspect the strong frontal boundary may reach the region faster than currently shown in the models (around the 26th). Models will really not have a good grasp on this system until likely Sunday when it moves into the western US sounding network.

For now will go with a gradual warming trend over the weekend under increasing southerly flow and humidity. By Monday we will be back near record highs and it will feel very much like yesterday. Rain chances begin to increase Monday evening and peak on Tuesday. Christmas appears warm, but if the front is faster than expected a sharp drop in temperatures would occur during the day on Tuesday. Upper trough in the ECMWF comes across in the cold air on Christmas night with winter precipitation across much of NC and N TX. For now, any winter precipitation looks to remain well north of our area, but the whole system and evolution of factors over the next 48-72 hours does bear watch

[srainhoutx]

As has been previously mentioned, a potent Winter Storm appears on the horizon near the Christmas Holiday period. There may be some major societal/travel impacts that spread across a large portion of the CONUS during the period. While it is too soon to know the exact details, with the busy travel period ahead it does warrent monitoring.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 23 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 27 2012

...MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER COMING...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL OFFER AN INCREASINGLY SIMILAR
LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK DESPITE CONTINUED
DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING AND INTERACTIONS. THIS
PATTERN SEEMS HIGHLIGHTED BY LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY
FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US DAY CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM REFLECTION AND PCPN FOCUS THAT THE
MODELS TRENDS NOW BETTER FAVOR INTO THE COOLED AIRMASS IN WAKE OF
THE DEEPER DOWNSTREAM CANADIAN MARITIME LOW.

UPSTREAM...AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY DIGS FROM THE WEST
COAST CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PCPN UNDERNEATH AND OVER SWD
SURGED PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REALLY IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE E-CENTRAL THE ERN US INTO A MAJOR
WINTER STORM WITH AN EXPANDING HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD. THERE IS
AMPLE ROOM FOR COLD AIR TO SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND
DAMMED DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.

OVERALL...HPC OVERNIGHT MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND
500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH NEW OVERNIGHT 00 UTC HPCGUIDE 5KM SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 18
UTC GFS WITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THESE MODELS OFFERED A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION ALOFT AND CLUSTER THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES
BETTER THAN OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE PURPOSE OF INCLUSION OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS TO SMOOTH THE LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS WHILE BLENDING IN THE GFS/ECMWF ALLOWS FOR BETTER
FEATURE DEFINITION FOR SEEMINGLY THE MORE PREDICTABLE FEATURES
GIVEN BROAD GUIDANCE SUPPORT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATER 00 UTC
MODELS SHOWS CONTINUED VARIABILITY WITH TIMING/SPACING OF EMBEDDED
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES BUT CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THE OVERALL ACTIVE
WINTER PATTERN.

SCHICHTEL

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lost 3 dead trees this morning and my power. Entergy says 11 pm for power back.

00z Euro looks tasty!

[harpman]

Tasty? How so?

[srainhoutx]

Early morning visible shot of the snow cover now across the front range and the Central Plains...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Laying the ground work for cold shots of air. I like it!

Its tasty because its further south and colder. Our friends in North and East Texas could see accumulating snow.

[harpman]

Cool! Let's keep it moving south and east over time!

[JackCruz]

Bring back the snow/sleet chances for Houston or else take back the cold air. Side note: It's still very windy outside and only 48 degrees, I bet the windchill is around 38-40. Now see, if it was like this every day, then there would be no complaining.

[srainhoutx]

Take it with a HUGE grain of salt and this is certainly not even close to reality at this range but the 12Z GFS would add to the snow cover further S into Eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Perhaps even some flurries as the moisture ends across E Texas Louisiana and on E as a Coastal low develops near the Upper Texas Coast and moves ENE. Again, we are not going to have a clue to how this all plays out until Sunday if then, so be very mindful of that...