December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

[hlewis]

should i even ask for the chances of a white christmas this year? LOL probably should ask the chances for a cold christmas...

[srainhoutx]

should i even ask for the chances of a white christmas this year? LOL probably should ask the chances for a cold christmas...

Not sure about any snow way down here, but the ensembles and operational guidance continue to advertise a progressive pattern with increasing potential for rain throughout the medium/long range with 'roller coaster' temps. We should see an active pattern with increasing snow cover across the N Plains.

There are some indications of the pattern becoming a bit more blocky in the longer range with a W based -NAO and a change in the Pacific pattern as the EPO finally begins to cooperate near the 20th, +/- a couple of days. Just perhaps we can lock in some sustaining cold that lasts for more than a couple of days. We will see. Meanwhile I'm getting ready for the cold weather with homemade chicken & dumplings and deer chili...

[hlewis]

should i even ask for the chances of a white christmas this year? LOL probably should ask the chances for a cold christmas...

Not sure about any snow way down here, but the ensembles and operational guidance continue to advertise a progressive pattern with increasing potential for rain throughout the medium/long range with 'roller coaster' temps. We should see an active pattern with increasing snow cover across the N Plains.

There are some indications of the pattern becoming a bit more blocky in the longer range with a W based -NAO and a change in the Pacific pattern as the EPO finally begins to cooperate near the 20th, +/- a couple of days. Just perhaps we can lock in some sustaining cold that lasts for more than a couple of days. We will see. Meanwhile I'm getting ready for the cold weather with homemade chicken & dumplings and deer chili...

Thanks Srain!! I'll take what I can get LOL Never had deer chili, but I bet it's wonderful!! Here's another year dreaming of a white Texas Christmas

[Belmer]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued December 09 at 5:50PM CST until December 10 at 12:00AM CST by NWS Storm Prediction Center


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 678 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE COLORADO GRIMES HOUSTON JASPER MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY TYLER WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON

[Belmer]

And the snow begins for the TX Panhandle

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see the latest HRRR model runs which show a swath of light snow falling in the next 24 hours from Amarillo down to Lubbock and across north Texas to Texarkana.

[weatherrabbit]

Front coming through Huntsville!...wind shift at the airport KUTS north of town and here south of town...starting to rain little more. Temp at 66 at my place and falling...wind gusts so far KUTS at 28. I just had one at 32 out of the north!

[Rip76]

Just checking in for the semi-wintry kick off.

Hope it's been a good year for everyone.

[skidog40]

Well forecasts are all wrong, way off

[Belmer]

Front came through before the rain did here in San Marcos. Dropped about 10 degrees within the last hour then poured. Storm put on one hell of a lightning show as well.
Rain has now stopped and getting windy and cold.

[weatherrabbit]

another round of storms and down 55. already picked up almost .6 and still raining

[weatherguy425]

Have at-least .5in of snow at my location in Northwest Lubbock. Looks like these system had slightly more lift/moisture to work with; maybe some folk in north Dallas will see a few flakes by tomorrow AM. Hopefully SETX is enjoying the rain!

[txflagwaver]

Starting to thunder & lightning here...no wind or rain...yet

[Rip76]

Really coming down in 77089.

A lot of lightning and thunder as well.
Sounded like some hail hitting the window too.

[Belmer]

Our friends in Dallas are getting in on the white stuff. Hope they enjoy it! Line of snow is moving rapidly west to east.


As for Houston, most of the heaviest rain fell in SE Harris County as a cell exploded over Pearland/Pasadena/Deer Park as the line of storms moved through.
The highest rain total I can find is Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive in Pearland with 1.32. About an inch in Pasadena. Mostly everyone else saw anywhere from a tenth of an inch half an inch. Not bad since the rain came and went pretty quickly. Looks to be another good rain chance by the end of the week into the weekend as another front comes through.

[srainhoutx]

Wichita Falls Webcam:

[jasons2k]

It looked like I was all set for a nice downpour here and I woke-up to .03"

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance although somewhat muddled by lack of consistency in the GFS/GEFS suggest a progressive/stormy pattern ahead during the medium range for areas from the Great Basin into the Plains.

HPC:

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 14 2012 - 12Z MON DEC 17 2012

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND AND OVER THE E-CNTRL PACIFIC
TELECONNECTS TO A MEAN TROF NEAR 110W FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MULTI-DAY MEANS LATE IN THE FCST
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE E-CNTRL PAC
POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES... WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MODERATE ERN PAC
MEAN TROF AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH AN IMPLIED
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOWER 48.
IMPORTANT DIFFS IN SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE
NERN PAC ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN CONUS ALREADY DEVELOP AROUND THE
START OF THE PERIOD... AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BECOME EVIDENT WITH
UPSTREAM FLOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN FCST DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE THRU THE PERIOD.

EARLY IN THE FCST THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS ARE NOTICEABLY
SLOWER/SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH TWO
SEPARATE SHRTWVS... ONE REACHING WRN NOAM LATE THIS WEEK AND A
DOWNSTREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE NRN TIER CONUS. THE GEFS MEAN ALSO
SHARES SOME ASPECTS OF THE GFS RUNS. THE TREND TOWARD QUICKER
PROGRESSION SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE SEEMS TO FAVOR LEANING TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECENS
MEAN/UKMET/CANADIAN MEAN AND TO SOME DEGREE 00Z CMC. IN THIS
MAJORITY CLUSTER THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE WEST AND THRU THE
PLAINS WOULD TRACK INTO THE GRTLKS REGION INSTEAD OF THE MORE
SUPPRESSED GFS/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO. SUCH A SOLN IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE MEAN PATTERN ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MEDR PERIOD.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT... ASIDE
FROM A GRADUAL SLOWING TREND... WITH A TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS BY DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON. GFS RUNS ARE FASTER
WITH UPSTREAM FLOW AND BRING A RIDGE INTO THE WEST. THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN IS SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLNS OVER THE NRN PAC SO
ITS WRN CONUS HGTS ARE MODESTLY LOWER THAN SEEN IN THE GFS. BY
DAY 7 THE ECMWF MEAN IS NOT QUITE AS SLOW/DEEP AS THE 00Z ECMWF
WITH THE CONUS TROF. THE CANADIAN MEAN IS BROADER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF MEAN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GEFS
MEAN. GIVEN THAT GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLNS APPEAR SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE
RELATIVE TO WHAT TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT OVER THE CONUS BY DAY
7... PREFERENCE CONTINUES MORE WITH THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN BY DAYS
6-7.

DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN/UKMET. DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON USE A 70/30 BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN EMPHASIZED DUE TO THE
OPERATIONAL RUN LEANING TOWARD THE AMPLIFIED EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD WITH THE WRN TROF BY THAT TIME FRAME.

[srainhoutx]

Early morning visible shot of the snow in New Mexico/Texas Panhandle as well as N Central Texas and Southern Oklahoma...

[srainhoutx]

Back on November 28th I made a post about the pattern changing...

Enjoy this upcoming pattern while it lasts. Big changes are brewing for mid December time range and it could bring moisture with it as well. The longer range guidance suggests an active storm track dipping very far S with building snow cover across the Rockies and all the Plains. It appears the sub tropical jet may become involved as well as moisture surges over some very chilly air at the surface just to our N near the 10th - 12th +/- a couple of days. I suspect that A_Z complaining will turn to Mister Heat Miser wxman57 shivering before all is said and done...

All in all the long range guidance didn't do too bad...Now looking ahead toward Christmas...we will see...