November: Warm and Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Matagorda & Wharton Counties

[unome]

a quick inch of rain by Cypress & temp dropped about 20 degrees ! http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[srainhoutx]

Folks up near Conroe/Huntsville heads up. There may be some hail associated with those stronger storms.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Montgomery, San Jacinto & Walker Counties

[Andrew]

00Z gfs doesn't look to bullish on rain for the next couple of days. 850RH looks limited with the highest values being Monday. It may be underestimating the moisture levels just a tad though especially considering storms were really firing today. Also just to let you know that special weather statement that was issued isn't too uncommon. During the summer almost everyday it was issued.

[Belmer]

1:59am to 1:14am ...We have gone back in time!

Okay. I had to.

Hope everyone hasn't forgot to set the clocks back one hour.

Edit to add: I see that the time is not working, at least for me. Bummer.

[Andrew]

1:59am to 1:14am ...We have gone back in time!

Okay. I had to.

Hope everyone hasn't forgot to set the clocks back one hour.

Edit to add: I see that the time is not working, at least for me. Bummer.

Yea you have to go to your control panel and then board preferences and change the summertime/DST to no. I changed the regular board settings as well.

[mckinne63]

Nice rain in Stafford yesterday. Just had a brief shower this morning. I will take more!

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 12Z THU NOV 08 2012 - 12Z SUN NOV 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER LIKELY THURSDAY...

...MUCH COLDER IN THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...


THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL
UNDERGO A HUGE SHIFT FROM A RIDGE/TROUGH TO TROUGH/RIDGE
ORIENTATION OVER THE WEST/EAST... RESPECTIVELY. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS UPCOMING
REVERSAL ACROSS THE US BUT STILL SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE VERY
IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF THE LEAD SYSTEM IN THE EAST
LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER... THE GUIDANCE HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED
ON A RATHER ROBUST CYCLONE HEADED UP THE EAST COAST MID-LATE WEEK.

IN THE EAST... THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN GENERALLY LIE ABOUT 12 HRS
FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE
CANADIAN SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN. THE 06Z GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN
ITS 00Z RUN BUT STILL OUTPACED THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE
TREND IN THE GFS OVER ITS PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF RUNS HAS BEEN
SLOWER BUT WITH LESS CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE ECMWF/UKMET
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 36 HRS WITH A SLIGHT JOG
QUICKER IN THE MOST RECENT ECMWF. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
NOTABLY SLOWED/DEEPENED AS WELL AND ITS 00Z RUN LIES NEAR A 00Z
UKMET POSITION. GIVEN THIS GOOD CLUSTERING OF WELL-PERFORMING
GUIDANCE... USED A 50/50 ECMWF/UKMET BLEND AS THE BASE OF THE
FORECAST FOR WED-FRI/D3-5. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE PAST WEEK...
MAY BE AMPLIFIED. AT THE LEAST THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO MAINE
AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS INTO THE 980S MB OFF THE COAST OF NEW
JERSEY. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OR DRAWN IN TO SUPPORT
SNOW THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST THOUGH SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO BRING SOME SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH
AS VIRGINIA. THESE DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED IN THE SHORTER
TERM FORECAST.

THE WEST IS NOT TO BE OUTDONE AS A VERY DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY DEEPER WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY THE WEEKEND THAN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS IS ON THE
QUICKER SIDE WITH ENERGY SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL ECMWF MEMBERS QUICKER
AS WELL. GIVEN THE MUCH QUICKER EXIT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH BY THE
GFS VS THE ECMWF THIS QUICKER PACE MAY BE SUSPECT. REGARDLESS...
THERE SHOULD BE A TREMENDOUS TEMPERATURE SWING OVER MOST OF THE
WEST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY... ON THE ORDER OF
30-50F DEGREES COLDER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY EVEN
FIND ITS WAY TO THE LOWER VALLEY FLOORS IN SOME LOCATIONS /THOUGH
WITH LESS PRECIPITATION/ OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
UPSLOPE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING ONTO THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA.


FRACASSO

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CA. OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON MORNING TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 12Z TUE.
LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FROM TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

...CNTRL AND SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NWRN TX INTO MO MON
MORNING....AND WILL PUSH SEWD TO A LITTLE ROCK TO SAN ANTONIO LINE
BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
ACROSS LA...WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN TX. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH.

FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE TX PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER. THUS...ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF TX...WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT FARTHER E
INTO LA AND SRN MS DURING THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 11/04/2012

[unome]

HGX Twitter feed https://twitter.com/NWSHouston

mentions the stormy weaather yesterday, nice pic by wxman666

[Katdaddy]

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook - The Upper TX Coast from Houston to Lake Charles is now in a Slight Risk area for tomrrow.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION REVEAL A FAST
AND WELL AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENT. A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER WRN BC HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
CANADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CRESTS
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN CANADA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. WHILE A NUMBER OF
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS A COMPACT AND STRENGTHENING
IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

...SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...
AHEAD OF THE COMPACT BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING
SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
NRN FL WEST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN.
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN LA. WHILE THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR AND NRN LA WITH 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M OVER THESE AREAS BY EVENING.

LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND ISOLD HAIL
POTENTIAL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM AR/NRN LA INTO MS
TODAY. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AS THE UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO
SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY FAVORING
SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

SUPPORTED BY THE STRENGTH AND CONTINUING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/05/2012

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) and 11Z HRRR it appears the best chances for any severe potential would be near and S of the I-10 Corridor extending back W to near Seguin. The shortwave that will activate the frontal boundary pushing it S is now diving SE into Arkansas at this hour.

[srainhoutx]

Update from SPC:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...

...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

..HART/MOSIER.. 11/05/2012

[hlewis]

When is our next shot of cold air??

[srainhoutx]

When is our next shot of cold air??

Sunday or next Monday depending on which model you believe...

[hlewis]

When is our next shot of cold air??

Sunday or next Monday depending on which model you believe...

shall this be a good shot of cold or just the normal, keeping with the flow kind of cool air... ? thank you srain!!

[srainhoutx]

When is our next shot of cold air??

Sunday or next Monday depending on which model you believe...

shall this be a good shot of cold or just the normal, keeping with the flow kind of cool air... ? thank you srain!!

Probably not any 'colder' than we experienced a week or so ago at this point. We're still talking a week out, so expect some changes. But the best guess would be highs in the 50's with some rain next Sunday/Monday behind the front with lows in the upper 30's to low 40's once we dry out and get some clear skies early next week. But that is just a 'guess' at this range.

[wxman57]

I don't see any really cold air on the horizon (next few weeks). Weak front next Monday may drop morning lows into the 50s again for a day or two, but that's about it. I'll be in Florida (Orlando) all next week. Looking mild and dry there.