October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[JulesC]

Here between Cypress and Katy we haven't gotten a drop of rain this morning, just some dark clouds and thunder.
Looks to be brightning up out there right now. Are we in for another round later today? I need to run errands and don't want to get rained on!

[txflagwaver]

Put all the plants out for a drink...hope we get SOMETHING

[jasons2k]

Up to 1.45" here and no power.

[Karen]

I wish the south side would see some of this rain

[SusieinLP]

Well I gave up and pulled the sprinklers out. Hoping for some cooler rain filled days soon....

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cool front has slipped off the coast overnight with slightly drier air working into the region.

Surface high pressure will be building southward today with the air mass drying with time. Hurricane Paul in the eastern Pacific Ocean will spread mid and high level moisture NE into TX today and Tuesday. A short wave trough in the upper flow will move across the state on Tuesday and work with the mid and upper level moisture to produce widespread rainfall aloft. Dry sub-cloud layers (low levels) will result in much of the rainfall aloft falling and evaporating before reaching the ground. Enough low level moisture may be present southwest of the Houston area to allow a few light showers, but the currently thinking is that the radar will look active, but ground amounts will be on the low side. Should models be under-estimating low level moisture quality, then rain chances and amounts will need to be raised for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Next cold front will pass across the region late Wednesday. Again moisture looks lacking with best rain chances mainly east of I-45 where southerly flow has a bit longer duration to bring Gulf moisture inland. Air mass behind this front is cool and will result in lows falling into the 50’s by the end of the week and highs near 80 for Friday and Saturday. Deep eastern US trough should keep the cool air mass in place for a few days, ahead of a potentially strong cold front toward the early to middle part of next week.

[tireman4]

Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

I’m calling it: Houston’s done with 90-degree days this year. Houston has had a 90-degree day as late in the year as Oct 29, but we’re going to see a slight cool down today, and a bigger one later this week.

So we’re probably done.

By my count, then, Houston has had 109 days with temperatures of at least 90 degrees during the year. Here’s a breakdown by month, from the National Weather Service’s climate pages:





http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/10/we ... end-ahead/

[JackCruz]

We're getting ready to head into November and we'll still have lows in the 70s. I can't believe we may head back into a La nina, winter lovers like me will be devastated. Fingers crossed for some record cold and some snowfall.

[srainhoutx]

Nice beneficial light rains falling in NW Harris County this afternoon.

[mckinne63]

Nice light rain in SW Houston and Stafford area. It rained lightly almost all the way home from work. There's that spot near the beltway that rain always seems to stop when I'm on the way home. Just started here in Stafford now.

[SusieinLP]

Wasn't expecting this nice shower!! Hope it keeps up for a few more hours

[JackCruz]

It's been pouring here in Cypress since 2pm! I would say moderate rain, no light rain here in Cypress. We've gotten a superb soaking, and it's still coming down. Currently at 62 degrees. Looks and feels great.

[mckinne63]

Still raining here in Stafford. It's not a heavy rain, just a steady soaking. I will take it!

[Ptarmigan]

The type of rain we need to keep the drought at bay.

[jasons2k]

This is a great rain - no idea how much yet but it looks decent to me. Definitely not expected as this was supposed to be all virga. It's usually how it happens but I'm not complaining

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Robust short wave that brought widespread rainfall to the area yesterday has pushed well east of the region this morning. Rainfall amounts were grossly under-forecasted for the event with widespread .25 to .75 of an inch in many locations. As the low level saturated, yesterday afternoon the rainfall became increasingly more heavy and steady.

With the strong short wave of yesterday evening now east of the area and weak downglide in place, expect a fairly dry day with only a few isolated showers possible in the developing strong warm air advection regime. Low 70 degree dewpoints have moved northward into the Palacios and Port Lavaca areas this morning and developing low pressure over the Midwest will draw this deeper moisture northward today. Deepening low pressure will greatly increase the pressure gradient and expect a rapid increase in wind speeds this morning into the 15-25mph range by early afternoon. SW flow in the low to mid levels will result in a very warm afternoon with many locations pushing 90 degrees.

Strong cold front currently over NW OK will move rapidly southward and push off the TX coast early Thursday. While low level moisture increases today, the mid and upper level moisture plume from now TS Paul has been pushed south of the area into SW TX. Moisture will be greatest along and east of I-45 and convergence along the front will be strong. Short term models are showing a thin line of possibly strong thunderstorms developing from the ARLATX region this afternoon SW into eastern TX this evening and overnight. This line looks to affect our eastern counties along and east of I-45 where the greatest moisture and instability will be as is usually the case under SSW low level flow. The short term models did a good job on the event yesterday with coverage of position of the rainfall, so think there is a decent chance of late evening thunderstorms across Walker, Polk, Trinity, San Jacinto, Liberty, Chambers, eastern Harris, and eastern Galveston Counties. West of these areas, moisture looks to limited for much more than a thin line of showers.

Front sweeps off the coast with gusty NW winds in place on Thursday and highs a solid 10 degrees cooler than today (near 80). Coolest morning looks to be Friday (mid 50’s) before strong onshore flow returns by Saturday brining warmth and humidity back into the region from the Gulf. Longer range has really backed away from any hints at cold air intrusions into the southern plains with continued warm conditions into the first week of November.

[unome]

what a lovely week it's been & continues to be, nice rain for everyone & beautiful temps !

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

http://nmq.ou.edu/

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is racing S through the Panhandle where dew points have dropped into the 30's and strong gusty N winds are blowing near the 40 mph range. The 12Z GFS flipped back to suggesting a rather potent front later next week as well. Looking even further ahead in la la land, the GFS is 'hinting' a strong Arctic front near the first of November, +/- a couple of days and even suggests some wintry mischief potential across the Panhandle/N Central Texas and Oklahoma. But that's way too far out to get excited about just yet...

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive fall storm via the 12Z Euro for next week...

[jasons2k]

.44" here yesterday