October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[Belmer]

I think we can all agree, tireman that The Weather Channel has gone down hill since NBC bought it out. I'm still a little confused with the 'naming of winter storms'. My opinion, it won't work as well as TWC think it will this winter season and may no longer do it going into 2013-14 winter season. We'll see...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Decent cold front for early October will arrive on Saturday with much colder conditions in place for Sunday.

Cold air mass has dropped out of Canada into the northern Rockies this morning with temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s across much of Wyoming and Colorado. This front has made it southward into the TX panhandle and western Oklahoma where strong north winds gusting to 40mph and temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s can be found. The first short wave will be passing into the Great Lakes today with the frontal push slowing. A very warm day is expected both today and Friday with highs pushing into the low 90’s with humid conditions. Secondary short wave will drop through the developing trough over the eastern US and plow the frontal boundary southward starting Friday. Front should clear north TX and enter our northern counties early Saturday morning and then cross the area and move offshore by early evening. Some timing differences with respect to frontal movement on Saturday yield great differences in high temperatures. Think northern counties will see highs prior to the front moving through with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 70’s before falling into the 60’s under gusty NW winds. Central and southern counties will likely warm into the mid and possibly upper 80’s prior to the frontal passage and then fall quickly into the lower 70’s or 60’s behind the front. Exactly when the front passes a location will determine how warm the afternoon temperatures will get. Those with any kind of outdoor activities on Saturday and especially Saturday evening should be prepared for the onset of much cooler and windy conditions.

Rain chances do not look very good with this front as the best upper level support will be well NE of the region and moisture profiles are fairly limited. Could see a thin line of showers right along or behind the boundary especially over the southern counties where temperatures will be warmest prior to the frontal passage and moisture the deepest. Post frontal lift will be general allowing a deck of low clouds to become trapped under the shallow frontal inversion. This low deck will hang tough into Sunday keeping high temperatures well below average for this time of year. Suspect many locations will struggle to reach 70 degrees with clouds and cloud air advection in place. Should the clouds clear sooner than expected high will be warmer (mid to upper 70’s). Lows on Sunday morning will be in the low to mid 50’s under gusty NW winds making it feel chilly. Clearing skies and calming winds on Sunday night/Monday morning will allow good radiational cooling conditions with lows possibly into the lower 50’s in the urban areas and upper 40’s in the rural areas.

Fairly quick warming trend will be in progress by Tuesday of next week with increasing Gulf moisture possibly brining a chance of rain.

[tireman4]

I wonder if this front makes it to us earlier than expected....DFW AFD....

From FW

WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROPA EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SINCE THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS VERY DENSE IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE PARTIALLY
ON ITS OWN WEIGHT AND NOT AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. OF COURSE...SOME MIXING ON THE LEADING EDGE WILL SLOW IT
DOWN TODAY...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL
TURN THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[JackCruz]

Khou had a Monday morning at 48 degrees Tuesday and yesterday it went up to 50...I guess today it'll go up to 54? I mean do they just go along with whatever the GFS produces or do they use the GFS as guidance coupled with their expertise? I may be wrong...not a big deal though...LOVE Khou weather team...just don't like getting my hopes up for 40 degree weather and then I get 50 or 60

[wxman57]

Last few runs of the GFS were not as cool, thus the rising forecast. Still too early to be very confident in the low here on Monday.

[srainhoutx]

There is a high bust potential with this front (both on high and low temps depending on if we stay cloudy or not), so I wouldn't get too worked up about things just yet. HGX even mentions it in their afternoon update...

NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN PARTS OF SE TX LATE
SAT MORNING OR AFTN THEN PUT ON THE BRAKES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
HWY 59 OR I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BULK OF
CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE SITUATED RIGHT ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LATE
AFTN SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
AGAIN BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND PUSH WELL OFF THE COAST. MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AND
ONGOING CAA MAY KEEP READINGS FROM HITTING 70F ON SUNDAY. KNOCKED
FCST TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT ENOUGH IF CURRENT CLOUD
FCST PERSISTS. CONVERSELY...CAN GO THE OTHER DIRECTION IF CLOUDS
END UP THINNING OUT. SO...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGH TEMP BUSTS
IS QUITE HIGH ALL WEEKEND (FRONTAL TIMING/POSITION ON SAT AND
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY).

[Andrew]

There is a pretty nice gradient with these temperatures. Yesterday in Minnesota there were temps in the 30's and 40's to the Northwest and 70's to the southeast. Pretty impressive.

[JackCruz]

Amarillo is forecasted to have a low of 32 degrees on Saturday....and chance of rain/precip cloudy conditions...can they receive a snowflake or two, or is that not possible?

[tireman4]

In the future...Highs in the upper 80's and lows in the upper 60's...... for the foreseeable future...Sigh...

.MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL STRUGGLE TO HAVE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES UNDER 70 DEGREES WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES EASILY
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THESE EXPECTED LOWS AND HIGHS ARE
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE AREA
MIGHT NOT SEE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
UNTIL OCT 20-22.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Karen]

Where is the front and when it is expected to come through the Houston area?

[srainhoutx]

Where is the front and when it is expected to come through the Houston area?

The actual front is still to our N along a Tyler/Corsicana/Burnet line and slowly dropping S. The pre frontal trough is near Brenham. The front likely will not make it to the Coast until around mid night tonight.

[ticka1]

what is the weather site that has all ther personal weather stations? trying to determine where the front is located now?

[tireman4]

what is the weather site that has all ther personal weather stations? trying to determine where the front is located now?

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... =10&wxsn=1

[srainhoutx]

The pre frontal trough just passed NW Harris County a bit ago. The actual cold front is just now passing College Station and heading S at a fairly good clip. Tomorrow will be a much different day than we saw across the region today. In fact we may struggle to get out of the upper 50's in some areas of SE Texas.

[weatherrabbit]

what is the weather site that has all ther personal weather stations? trying to determine where the front is located now?

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... =10&wxsn=1

falling all afternoon here...after a high of 77 now down to 64 and still dropping. feels good....

[txflagwaver]

Facebook is blowing up with "Is the cold front here yet" and "The wind has shifted at my house". LOL Talked to a friend in Brenham and the wind is blowing from the North there..I have absolutely 0 wind...which means it's coming.... The soup is made...bread baked...windows open.

[SusieinLP]

Today was a beautiful fall day. Like txflagwaver, it is very still here in La Porte....Just a matter of time!!

[txflagwaver]

Is there any rain with this front?

[SusieinLP]

Wow. Went from very still to quite windy....It's here!

[txflagwaver]

Nothing here yet