Tropical Depression Isaac:

[emily0677]

Not saying it has to do with Isaac, but my gosh....the winds sure have picked up today in Beaumont!

i can confirm that for sure

[David Paul]

WXman666 - Dr. Frank feels the hurricane center should have upgraded the storm to 'hurricane' status much sooner. Flight level winds were 80kts and pressures 977 but max surface winds were only 71mph so they held off until late yesterday morning. Docs problem with this is that people on the coast who are most at risk tend to stay put, even under evacuation orders, until they hear the word 'hurricane.' If it's just a 'tropical storm' they are more likely to stay in harms way. It's the psychological impact of NOT calling it a hurricane earlier that may cost some people their lives today. This morning we have massive flooding in Plaquemines parish and the un-protected coastal areas. High water rescues are now underway.

[Portastorm]

Latest radar out of NOLA seems to suggest a northwest movement for Isaac, albeit slow.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.ph ... X-N0Q-1-24

[Ptarmigan]

WXman666 - Dr. Frank feels the hurricane center should have upgraded the storm to 'hurricane' status much sooner. Flight level winds were 80kts and pressures 977 but max surface winds were only 71mph so they held off until late yesterday morning. Docs problem with this is that people on the coast who are most at risk tend to stay put, even under evacuation orders, until they hear the word 'hurricane.' If it's just a 'tropical storm' they are more likely to stay in harms way. It's the psychological impact of NOT calling it a hurricane earlier that may cost some people their lives today. This morning we have massive flooding in Plaquemines parish and the un-protected coastal areas. High water rescues are now underway.

It is really serious. Hurricane Isaac is still a hurricane despite being near the coast. I do agree Isaac should of been upgraded to hurricane earlier.

[Rip76]

Latest radar out of NOLA seems to suggest a northwest movement for Isaac, albeit slow.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.ph ... X-N0Q-1-24

yep
preparing for dry and hot here....

[sau27]

Latest radar out of NOLA seems to suggest a northwest movement for Isaac, albeit slow.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.ph ... X-N0Q-1-24

yep

Thats the most visible northerly movement I've seen in the past day or so

[biggerbyte]

Folks, I hope we all don't lose focus on what has been occurring with Isaac. We've had this person, that person, this and that model, and the only Professonal entity that has been spot on is Dr. Neil Frank. Isaac will not move north until there is an opening for him to do so. He will remain stationary, or drift in a westerly direction, just as he has been. It remains up for debate as to when that will be. I don't know about you guys, but I'm giving just about zero credence to what the models say Isaac is going to do at this point. My advice is to continue to simply watch what he IS doing, and listen to Dr. Neil Frank. Oh, and the dead and gone philosophy....

Got Dr. appointments the next three days. May not be on as much. If anyone can offer up prayer, I sure could use it right now.
Of course, prayers go out to the folks in LA.

Thanks

BB

[jasons2k]

WXman666 - Dr. Frank feels the hurricane center should have upgraded the storm to 'hurricane' status much sooner. Flight level winds were 80kts and pressures 977 but max surface winds were only 71mph so they held off until late yesterday morning. Docs problem with this is that people on the coast who are most at risk tend to stay put, even under evacuation orders, until they hear the word 'hurricane.' If it's just a 'tropical storm' they are more likely to stay in harms way. It's the psychological impact of NOT calling it a hurricane earlier that may cost some people their lives today. This morning we have massive flooding in Plaquemines parish and the un-protected coastal areas. High water rescues are now underway.

But it wasn't a hurricane yet....

The NHC has multiple duties:
1) To dissiminate accurate meteorological information. The 'general public' isn't the only consumer of this information. If they 'spin' things for push another agenda, they lose credibility.
2) To protect the general public from danger. That's why the LA coast was under a Hurricane Warning well over 24 hours before landfall. When a warning is issued, people need to heed the warning - it's just that simple.

Yes, I get it, people will 'perk up' and pay attention when a storm is designated a hurricane*. But it shouldn't be the responsibility of the NHC to start designating something that isn't; we just need to do a better job on conveying how serious the warning is and what the expected/potential impacts are. Knowing many Cajuns personally, I imagine most of the people who stayed, would have stayed anyway; they all knew it was expected to make landfall as a Cat 1 or 2 Cane. They know the drill probably better than anyone.

*edited typo

[Rip76]

Prayers BB...
And you're right about Dr. Frank, he has been pretty spot on with this...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ISAAC DRENCHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA
BORDER
* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST...OR VERY NEAR HOUMA LOUISIANA. ISAAC IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

A GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE MID LAKE STATION IN
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH WAS REPORTED AT
NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...3 TO 6 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF NEAR 8 FEET HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT
SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA AND WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA TODAY...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[sau27]

I'm going to be very interested in the post-storm analysis on this one. I'll be curious to see if the NHC acknowledges some of the issues regarding Isaac's movement since it first made landfall/"swampfall" last night, namely the persistence in saying it was moving NW when it was actually drifting west and stalling. I'm also interested in seeing what they say about their decision on timing of the upgrade to hurricane status.
I recently wrote a research paper for one of my former law school professors regarding land-use planning along the coast and the controversy over the Texas Open Beaches Act and how those things relate to the damage caused by a storm.
I have to say after watching all that has gone on with this storm I sort of have an itch to do some research into the effects the NHC's forecasts and observations have on people in the path.

[Ptarmigan]

Flooding looks very bad in Plaquemines Parish.

[MRG93415]

Prayers BB...
And you're right about Dr. Frank, he has been pretty spot on with this...

Prayers from us too BB...Thank you for all of the input you have put in these days regarding Isaac and I hope all works out GOOD for you.

[kellybell4770]

looking at the radar it does look like it is moving NW - every so slightly but it is moving - let's all pray that Isaac hurries up and moves out of there- my heart goes out to those that have lost everything

[srainhoutx]

Looking purely for some data via the 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM) and HRRR for the synoptic setup across the CONUS, those meso short range models suggest the Isaac will drift W to WNW hugging Coastal Louisiana for the next 30 hours via the NAM and 15 hours via the HRRR.

The attachment 08292012 12Z NAM WRF NMM f30.gif is no longer available

[Rip76]

Srain, that would be a nice set up for SE Texas..

Now looking a loops, it seems that was just a bump to the NW and now west again?

[sau27]

If this storm leads to the retirement of the name Isaac I think the NHC is going to have a hard time continuing to come up with "I" storm names. Seems as if all the "I"'s the past few years have been getting retired. Maybe they should just start skipping it and go from H to J

[Rip76]

Watching some sad water rescues here and live news....

http://www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt

[Portastorm]

Srain, that would be a nice set up for SE Texas..

Now looking a loops, it seems that was just a bump to the NW and now west again?

Still moving northwest. If you use a radar loop with a larger number of images you can get a sense of the longer-term motion. Still wobbling here and there though, yes. But overall, I think it is a slow but steady northwest motion.

[CAK]

You can adjust time frame's on this loop. This is a 6 hour run...

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=6