Tropical Depression Isaac:

[TxLady]

Wishing all our friends "over yonder" a speedy recovery from this. Keeping my fingers crossed that all of our wobble-watching is for naught.

[djmike]

So if euro trended more east, where does it take it? Central LA or back NOLA?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

central LA

[matthouston]

The NAM seems to support the WNW motion I'm seeing on the loop. Is anyone putting any stock in this model?

[djmike]

central LA

So still very much west than what it was yesterday...Where can I see the euro landfall and after?

[Portastorm]

central LA

So still very much west than what it was yesterday...Where can I see the euro landfall and after?

Try this link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[TXStormjg]

central LA

So still very much west than what it was yesterday...Where can I see the euro landfall and after?

Try this link:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Euro looks like MS coast as target. These models are really struggling with Isaac!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro shows it going through Central LA up through around Shreveport.

[djmike]

So still very much west than what it was yesterday...Where can I see the euro landfall and after?[/quote][/quote]

Try this link:

But H48 looks pretty much just at the Tx border, right? So we still have the landfall and westward motion along the coast before going NW, right? .....just want to make sure Im reading this right.

[wxman57]

Both Euro and GFS indicate a slower WNW movement over the next 12-18 hrs with the center on the coast east of Vermilion Bay tomorrow morning. Isaac already appears to be north of their forecast, but I wouldn't discount a WNW movement inland along the LA coast over the next 24 hours before it turns NW-N and accelerates. We could see some of Isaac's outer rainbands here tomorrow afternoon.

[djmike]

NAM.....OMG...West then south west? Oh this is getting to be funny. I can't help but to laugh. Isaac STILL could pull tricks this close to land....amazing!!!

[MRG93415]

Not wishcasting or forcasting but this darn thing is gonna end up in our backyard before this is said and done with all this chaning of movement...LOL

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Watches and Warnings shifted a bit W in a few minutes.

[kayci]

I really don't want this thing to ruin my weekend plans..... wish it away!

[srainhoutx]

No changes with Watches/Warnings:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT NEARS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2
WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. NOAA BUOY 42040...LOCATED
EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY MEASURED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH...100 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...
135 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. AT ABOUT THE
30TH STORY...WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Snowman]

the rain bands are expanding north over new orleans so this thing definitely has a northward component to it. I can hear the winds outside of my dorm room howling through campus

[Ptarmigan]

Isaac is quite a large hurricane. That is more dangerous than a small hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO ISAAC...WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WIND OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED...THE RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS BASIS...THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT
FIXES YIELDS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/07 KT. ISAAC
REMAINS ON TRACK...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS...
THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE.
AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE
MODELS...ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS
NORTHWARD BY DAY 4...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12
HOURS...FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC COULD STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE
UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE
EXACT CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 28.7N 89.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 29.4N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 30.3N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 31.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 36.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 39.0N 90.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 41.5N 86.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[tireman4]

I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.

[MRG93415]

I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.

I have to agree with you there Tireman...