Tropical Depression Isaac:

[cisa]

Can someone sunnerize current data. I'm on my iphone at work and need a current update.

[Rip76]

Ok, watching radar and satellite it does appear to be heading NW, with an illusion of West.

Weather Channel showed a future track that was a little more to the West.... (I know, i know)

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF DESTIN
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 150SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.8N 89.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.7N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 38.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 41.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 88.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...ISAAC STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF DESTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE
COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...4 TO 8 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* REMAINDER OF FLORIDA WEST COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND WILL REACH OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 976 MB SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT HAS LEVELED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED HAS BEEN 89 KT...
WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60
KT...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISAAC HAS BEEN WOBBLING
IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT
TURNS NORTHWARD ON DAY 4...AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TCVA.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUES TO PLAGUE ISAAC. AS SOON AS
THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND THE APPEARANCE OF AN
EYE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CONVECTION ERODES DUE TO
THE DRY AIR. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME...ISAAC ONLY HAS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH ONLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ISAAC IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FOR THIS REASON...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 28.1N 88.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 28.8N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 29.7N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 35.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 38.5N 90.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 41.0N 86.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This is a Hurricane. I'm not sure why the NHC won't call it what it is.

[srainhoutx]

This is a Hurricane. I'm not sure why the NHC won't call it what it is.

Forecaster Stewart explained why he didn't upgrade...

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 976 MB SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT HAS LEVELED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED HAS BEEN 89 KT...
WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60
KT...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS.

[TXStormjg]

Not sure what happened, but I tried to post a semi retraction to my previous post. I only wanted to head off that possibility. It has happened in the past. Not intending to offend anyone in any way, shape, or form. If anyone feels this way,I sincerely apologize.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Gotcha... someone is going to see 90-100 mph winds out of this and I still think Stewart will still have it a TS.

[djmike]

Wow...NHC is DETERMINED to not move that track!! They obviously see it catching the trough and going NE. Suprised not once have they considered the stall and/or westward drift just off shore or just on shore. I have a feeling the suprises are far from over....

[TxLady]

Is there any reason for declaring a storm offically a "Hurricane" vs "Tropical Storm"? I can understand a historical perspective. But, am curious as to any implications as far as Federal Disaster relief funds, or personal insurance claims, etc...

[MRG93415]

Joe B is gonna blow.....LOL

Seriously, I am so confused now as to what is gonna happen...LOL

[srainhoutx]

Is there any reason for declaring a storm offically a "Hurricane" vs "Tropical Storm"? I can understand a historical perspective. But, am curious as to any implications as far as Federal Disaster relief funds, or personal insurance claims, etc...

It doesn't make any difference at all other than from a historical point at this time. Reanalysis has changed many a forecast after the fact. FEMA and Personal Insurance makes no difference what so ever. Disaster Declarations have already been issued both from State and the Federal Level for Louisiana. Other States may follow and also be added to the Federal Disaster at any time.

[Belmer]

I'm seeing some of Isaac's clouds all the way here in San Marcos. At least I can say I got some part of this storm.

[rselby0654]

I'm seeing some of Isaac's clouds all the way here in San Marcos. At least I can say I got some part of this storm.

I'm in San Marcos too! Do you go to Texas State!?

[emily0677]

Hi all...i am a long time lurker on khou....i was wondering how accurate the HRRR was....Thank you all for all the time ya'll put in this!!!!!

[TxLady]

It doesn't make any difference at all other than from a historical point at this time. Reanalysis has changed many a forecast after the fact. FEMA and Personal Insurance makes no difference what so ever. Disaster Declarations have already been issued both from State and the Federal Level for Louisiana. Other States may follow and also be added to the Federal Disaster at any time.

Thank You! I'm just trying to understand all the discussion surrounding the official "Hurricane" designation.

[Belmer]

I'm seeing some of Isaac's clouds all the way here in San Marcos. At least I can say I got some part of this storm.

I'm in San Marcos too! Do you go to Texas State!?

I sure do! We have another Texas State student on this board?

[Rip76]

Actually it's Southwest Texas State thank you....

back on track here...
Srain, anything new?

[TXStormjg]

Actually it's Southwest Texas State thank you....

I agree! Why the heck did they change the name?

back on track here...
Srain, anything new?