Tropical Depression Isaac:

Texas Pirate · Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:24 am

I dont know how to post picutures
but SE TX is under the "aware" alert
according TWC map.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:25 am

In the past couple hours there is a clear northwest motion. Tulane has still decided to keep us here. Although class is cancelled tuesday and wednesday, I still have classes tomorrow as of now. Looks like things are gunna get really rough around hear in about 48 hours. But before that happens I am looking forward to attending several hurricane parties on campus!

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am

Snowman wrote:In the past couple hours there is a clear northwest motion. Tulane has still decided to keep us here. Although class is cancelled tuesday and wednesday, I still have classes tomorrow as of now. Looks like things are gunna get really rough around hear in about 48 hours. But before that happens I am looking forward to attending several hurricane parties on campus!

More WNW then NW as of now. Look at radar for movement. Satellite can be deceiving.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:31 am

Bluefalcon wrote:Scott...Starting to see some banding reforming to the south and east of where the last recon fix was...Nice to see someone from Freeport on here. Born, raised, and graduated from.

Nice to see a neighbor. I'm actually just outside Angleton but use Freeport/Surfside as my tropical home base since I'm that close. Doesn't take me but a few minutes to get down to Surfside and catch some wind anytime there is something tropical near us.

It looks like recon may have found the that the MLC has now become dominant underneath the more rigorous convection as that ULL near the YP has detached the LLC. Haven't seen a VDM yet but might get one soon.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:34 am

Andrew wrote:
Snowman wrote:In the past couple hours there is a clear northwest motion. Tulane has still decided to keep us here. Although class is cancelled tuesday and wednesday, I still have classes tomorrow as of now. Looks like things are gunna get really rough around hear in about 48 hours. But before that happens I am looking forward to attending several hurricane parties on campus!
More WNW then NW as of now. Look at radar for movement. Satellite can be deceiving.

Well I was looking at the long range radar of the southeast on the government website and it really does look more northwest to me. But my eye is untrained and it is a bit difficult to tell exactly where the center of this one is. I am kind of just looking at the whole thing in general.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:36 am

Howdy neighbors! Born, raised & graduated from Bwood. Been in Angleton now for 14 years!

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:37 am

Snowman wrote:
Andrew wrote:
Snowman wrote:In the past couple hours there is a clear northwest motion. Tulane has still decided to keep us here. Although class is cancelled tuesday and wednesday, I still have classes tomorrow as of now. Looks like things are gunna get really rough around hear in about 48 hours. But before that happens I am looking forward to attending several hurricane parties on campus!
More WNW then NW as of now. Look at radar for movement. Satellite can be deceiving.
Well I was looking at the long range radar of the southeast on the government website and it really does look more northwest to me. But my eye is untrained and it is a bit difficult to tell exactly where the center of this one is. I am kind of just looking at the whole thing in general.

No I understand. I seem to go back and forth between NW and wnw. I think that the center has relocated or has been driven under the more intense convection and gave it that NW look. I think a wnw movement has continued after that but it is close to a NW movement so that could change soon.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:37 am

Scott747 wrote:
Bluefalcon wrote:Scott...Starting to see some banding reforming to the south and east of where the last recon fix was...Nice to see someone from Freeport on here. Born, raised, and graduated from.
Nice to see a neighbor. I'm actually just outside Angleton but use Freeport/Surfside as my tropical home base since I'm that close. Doesn't take me but a few minutes to get down to Surfside and catch some wind anytime there is something tropical near us.

It looks like recon may have found the that the MLC has now become dominant underneath the more rigorous convection as that ULL near the YP has detached the LLC. Haven't seen a VDM yet but might get one soon.

Yep...the last recon fix of the center was 45 miles WNW of Dry Tortugas...closer to the rain on radar. No vortex yet, but it'll be out soon.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:05 am

Euro isn't finished yet, but from what I have heard, (The Weather Channel just mentioned it as well) that Euro is trending more Westward. However, I don't believe this is factoring in the new relocation of Isaac.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:06 am

Sure enough we have a new center about 50 miles to the NW of the old one. Barely inside the cone. And wouldn't you know it the 0z Euro has shifted W but the 0z runs are basically useless with the new center.

Unreal....

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:07 am

Lanfall border of MS/AL:

EDIT TO ADD: Actually, closer look is that landfall is just East of New Orleans. Border of LA/MS

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:13 am

Well tomorrow should be a very interesting day. I'm expecting another shift towards the west

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:17 am

lpweather wrote:Well tomorrow should be a very interesting day. I'm expecting another shift towards the west

Possibility is there. However, I believe the 12z runs tomorrow will be very important as those runs will have the new relocation of Isaac. A huge jump to the NW like this could actually bring Isaac a further East of New Orleans. But SE TX is in no means in 'the clear' yet. We should all have a better handle on where Isaac could potentially go by tomorrow afternoon sometime.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:33 am

Belmer wrote:
lpweather wrote:Well tomorrow should be a very interesting day. I'm expecting another shift towards the west
Possibility is there. However, I believe the 12z runs tomorrow will be very important as those runs will have the new relocation of Isaac. A huge jump to the NW like this could actually bring Isaac a further East of New Orleans. But SE TX is in no means in 'the clear' yet. We should all have a better handle on where Isaac could potentially go by tomorrow afternoon sometime.

Please explain why you think that.

-thanks

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:42 am

Andrew wrote:
Belmer wrote:
lpweather wrote:Well tomorrow should be a very interesting day. I'm expecting another shift towards the west
Possibility is there. However, I believe the 12z runs tomorrow will be very important as those runs will have the new relocation of Isaac. A huge jump to the NW like this could actually bring Isaac a further East of New Orleans. But SE TX is in no means in 'the clear' yet. We should all have a better handle on where Isaac could potentially go by tomorrow afternoon sometime.
Please explain why you think that.

-thanks

Only speculation. Euro, NAM and Canadian (I believe) is still feeling the weakness to pull Isaac northward more into Mobile, AL then once landfall, move Northeastward. Even though 00z of Euro moved further westward, and correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't have the new relocation of Isaac. Simply put, with a relocation of Isaac to the northwest, the overall (small) chance of Isaac feeling the weakness is there a little greater now. Thus, why I believe models could slighltly nudge a little eastward tomorrow. Plus, I believe I read where the center jumped NW of about ~50-70 miles. That put Isaac on a more northern part of the cone and if a NW trend continued, landfall would look to be New Orleans and eastward. But of course, those are my thoughts and opinions.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:54 am

Andrew wrote:
Belmer wrote:
lpweather wrote:Well tomorrow should be a very interesting day. I'm expecting another shift towards the west
Possibility is there. However, I believe the 12z runs tomorrow will be very important as those runs will have the new relocation of Isaac. A huge jump to the NW like this could actually bring Isaac a further East of New Orleans. But SE TX is in no means in 'the clear' yet. We should all have a better handle on where Isaac could potentially go by tomorrow afternoon sometime.
Please explain why you think that.

-thanks

Only speculation. Euro, NAM and Canadian (I believe) is still feeling the weakness to pull Isaac northward more into Mobile, AL then once landfall, move Northeastward. Even though 00z of Euro moved further westward, and correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't have the new relocation of Isaac. Simply put, with a relocation of Isaac to the northwest, the overall (small) chance of Isaac feeling the weakness is there a little greater now. Thus, why I believe models could slighltly nudge a little eastward tomorrow. Plus, I believe I read where the center jumped NW of about ~50-70 miles. That put Isaac on a more northern part of the cone and if a NW trend continued, landfall would look to be New Orleans and eastward. But of course, those are my thoughts and opinions.[/quote]

Only thing is that with a farther NW relocation it could "outrun" the weakness and actually go farther west. It will be interesting to see where this storm is located tomorrow morning/midday because after the llc relocated under the convection it looks like it is heading on a more WNW path.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:01 am

Andrew:
Only thing is that with a farther NW relocation it could "outrun" the weakness and actually go farther west. It will be interesting to see where this storm is located tomorrow morning/midday because after the llc relocated under the convection it looks like it is heading on a more WNW path.

Belmer:
That is true as well. I think after tonight, we should know a lot more. If Isaac doesn't play anymore tricks on us from now till 2pm or so tomorrow, we should have a better idea as far as path goes. I do see that it is currently moving WNW right now. We'll see if that movement continues overnight or if a more NW trend starts like the Euro is thinking.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:09 am

Another shift W with the 4 am advisory.

Near Buras and further inland Kenner.

Tropical Storm Watch extended to the Tx/La border.

Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:42 am

by no means are we safe from isaac but the threat isnt as great as it was sunday evening. i will still watch isaac until landfall happens and we are fully out of harms way! i do believe this id new orleans storm! and isaac didnt strengthen overnight either!

Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:18 am

ticka1 wrote:by no means are we safe from isaac but the threat isnt as great as it was sunday evening. i will still watch isaac until landfall happens and we are fully out of harms way! i do believe this id new orleans storm! and isaac didnt strengthen overnight either!

Can you tell me what would need to happen today for this to become our problem?

Tropical Depression Isaac:

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