Andrew wrote:Still looks like the gfs is dealing with convective feedback. It continues to spawn multiple vort max's in the 850mb analysis short range. While land interaction could cause this it does look a little suspicious, especially since most convection has been south of the center. Isaac is still having organization issues but does look a little more organized. Still isn't vertically stacked though. Planes were finding the 700mb center south of the LLC.
There hasn't been a definitive center for over 24 hrs and it times it was probably barely a TD. AF Recon has had to do some strange flight patterns looking for one. It really isn't that much more organized then yesterday though winds are beginning to respond. Should be just a matter of time but many of us have been saying that for almost two days now.
Still not confident on that wnw movement. MIMIC still shows a relatively west movement (hasn't updated lately though). Where a definitive center forms will be telling for how strong Isaac can get before land interaction. It would almost be better for the US if Isaac strengthened a lot before hitting the islands so it could have a complete collapse of the core. That would take longer to rebuild in my opinion.
Actually the guidance has been rather accurate in suggesting development really would not occur until passing Hispainola/Cuba. While it may not be the impressive looking tropical system that is vertically stacked and rapid strengthening, Isaac is behaving as many had expected at this point in its life cycle.[/quote]
That is true. Both the gfs and Euro indicated multiple centers at multiple levels and no real consolidation.
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Disagree. The constant cycling of vorts without a center consolidating is pushing the overall system further W and potentially less interaction with Haiti and a further westward emergence off of Cuba. Thus it takes longer to respond to the weakness and pushes the eventual track further W that 'could' potentially push it even further W depending on how much the H rebuilds.
Sadly, when the actual system is that large, it becomes difficult to tell what the actual steering is because the storm distorts it. The CIMSS layer steering is more useful for small systems or poorly developed ones.
I was mainly posting that to show the ridging to the northeast and the current setup through the gulf.
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jgreak wrote:I am still learning here, but looking at the steering on that map, it looks like it would be steered right into our little corner of the gulf, no?
Well that is the current steering. That will change as time goes on especially with a trough coming down from the plains.
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I heard one of the local mets the other day say that If Issac continues to stay weak and unorganized, it will continue a more westerly track, into the GOM. I assume tomorrow and Saturday will be the telling days to see if he does take the NW turn, is that correct? The trend seems to be westward-ho so far....
[byJ&J[/b] (Alicia, Chantal, Jerry, Rita, Ike, Harvey)
my name is Jamie and I LOVE the weather!
Alvin Girl wrote:I heard one of the local mets the other day say that If Issac continues to stay weak and unorganized, it will continue a more westerly track, into the GOM. I assume tomorrow and Saturday will be the telling days to see if he does take the NW turn, is that correct? The trend seems to be westward-ho so far....
It is most likely Isaac will enter in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently the eastern and central Gulf are at most risk, but the western Gulf is not totally out of the woods at this point. All Gulf coast states are in play at this time. Isaac will be a very large system with far reaching effects and capable for producing some high surge values where it comes ashore.
Alvin Girl wrote:I heard one of the local mets the other day say that If Issac continues to stay weak and unorganized, it will continue a more westerly track, into the GOM. I assume tomorrow and Saturday will be the telling days to see if he does take the NW turn, is that correct? The trend seems to be westward-ho so far....
It is most likely Isaac will enter in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently the eastern and central Gulf are at most risk, but the western Gulf is not totally out of the woods at this point. All Gulf coast states are in play at this time. Isaac will be a very large system with far reaching effects and capable for producing some high surge values where it comes ashore.
Thanks Jeff!
[byJ&J[/b] (Alicia, Chantal, Jerry, Rita, Ike, Harvey)
my name is Jamie and I LOVE the weather!
I've been so busy the past few days, haven't had much time to post. I saw the 10pm track, further west and does raise an eyebrow for us folks here in Houston. However, Isaac looks to be gettings it's act together. Looks like the northern circulation beat out the southern and the pressure has dropped 2mb now down to 1001mb. Moving WNW at 18mph compared to 15mph earlier. As long as this storm keeps strengthening and keeps at a fast pace, my guess will be anywhere from New Orleons to Pensolcola landfall. Though, just my opinion and from what the latest update shows. I think the 5:00am update/new track will be an important one as we get the results from the plane dropping those drones down in the Bahamas and what the steering currents will be.
