Invest 95L: Western Gulf

[srainhoutx]

Actually, I'm not too surprised to see no mention of 95L in the Texas AFD's this afternoon. Neither the HPC nor any of the local Texas NWS offices had much, if anything to say. Since the invest wasn't declared until 1730Z, there was much time and the 18Z guidance had not initiated prior to their writings. Tomorrow morning will be the time to look and see if the mid level vort is still active and if convection re develops during D Max. This will likely be a slow process to spin up, if it does at all. Tonight we'll just have to watch and see if something can drill down to the surface.

[skidog40]

the seperation has begun. like pulling meat out of shrimp tail.

[Rip76]

Actually,
I'm a little bit worried about what that front extended out in the GOM is going to do, much more than 95L.

[Alvin Girl]

Update:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0215 PM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED --
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.
4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

So did RECON go out and look at this earlier this afternoon, or are they scheduled to take a peek tomorrow?

[wxman57]

Wind shear in the NW Gulf is increasing ahead of the cold front. This system won't be developing, though it may help form a wave on the front as it moves off to the NE along the front.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

06Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[rnmm]

I am keeping an eye on this little bugger! This sure has been a persistent little storm to say the least!

[wxman57]

It appears to be merging with the frontal boundary this morning. No LLC, just a pre-frontal trof out there in the Gulf and increasing SW wind shear above. Development looks unlikely. The moisture associated with it should stream off to the NE along the front.

[srainhoutx]

It does appear that RECON will fly today and tomorrow for the Western Gulf Disturbance...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[djmike]

So if 95L merges with the front, (which it looks like it is) what's going to happen? Is the front expected to retreat back north as a warm front like many do or wash out in the Gulf? In other words, if it becomes one with the front, will we see anything from it or will it all stream NE towards FL? Thanks

[srainhoutx]

So if 95L merges with the front, (which it looks like it is) what's going to happen? Is the front expected to retreat back north as a warm front like many do or wash out in the Gulf? In other words, if it becomes one with the front, will we see anything from it or will it all stream NE towards FL? Thanks

The actual front is up near or just S of College Station and may never make through the Houston Area. The only thing that may help 'push' the front further S would be the short wave over the Southern Rockies, and even that is not a given. What we have is a pre frontal trough offshore. While it is a 'boundary', that feature should wash out in time or perhaps retreat a bit N should 95L develop. At this time it appears that increased rains/storms will focus along that trough. I will add that there does appear to be a surface reflection SSE of Brownsville/NNE of Tampico, so we'll see if RECON actually finds a closed low and enough surface winds to warrant an upgrade.

[rnmm]

If this area does develop, would it be a threat to Louisiana? Or where will it threaten if it does at all? Does it have enough time to be more than a Tropical Storm? These are some of the questions I have...

[JackCruz]

So if 95L merges with the front, (which it looks like it is) what's going to happen? Is the front expected to retreat back north as a warm front like many do or wash out in the Gulf? In other words, if it becomes one with the front, will we see anything from it or will it all stream NE towards FL? Thanks

The actual front is up near or just S of College Station and may never make through the Houston Area. The only thing that may help 'push' the front further S would be the short wave over the Southern Rockies, and even that is not a given. What we have is a pre frontal trough offshore. While it is a 'boundary', that feature should wash out in time or perhaps retreat a bit N should 95L develop. At this time it appears that increased rains/storms will focus along that trough. I will add that there does appear to be a surface reflection SSE of Brownsville/NNE of Tampico, so we'll see if RECON actually finds a closed low and enough surface winds to warrant an upgrade.

Mehhh

[djmike]

So if 95L merges with the front, (which it looks like it is) what's going to happen? Is the front expected to retreat back north as a warm front like many do or wash out in the Gulf? In other words, if it becomes one with the front, will we see anything from it or will it all stream NE towards FL? Thanks

The actual front is up near or just S of College Station and may never make through the Houston Area. The only thing that may help 'push' the front further S would be the short wave over the Southern Rockies, and even that is not a given. What we have is a pre frontal trough offshore. While it is a 'boundary', that feature should wash out in time or perhaps retreat a bit N should 95L develop. At this time it appears that increased rains/storms will focus along that trough. I will add that there does appear to be a surface reflection SSE of Brownsville/NNE of Tampico, so we'll see if RECON actually finds a closed low and enough surface winds to warrant an upgrade.

Ah, I see srain...I made the mistake of thinking that the drier air and cooler temps today was the cold front and that was it in the Gulf. Well, hopeing for some beneficial rains soon from "something!' I really don't care how we get it anymore, as long as we get something from somewhere...lol....This entire weekend, I only got .70".

[jasons2k]

It is confusing. Last week there was a lot of talk of a low forming along the trough or front and then drifting northward to the Texas coast. Then last night Wxman57 posted the smackdown and said if anything formed it would go E or NE or here. It's always good to look at the 500mb charts to get and idea of where things will go but I have no time to do any of my own checking...maybe a pro met can chime-in with some analysis/clarity. Right now it's like the system is kryptonite - nobody is even mentioning - nothing at all in the local AFD - which is a little odd.

[djmike]

It is confusing. Last week there was a lot of talk of a low forming along the trough or front and then drifting northward to the Texas coast. Then last night Wxman57 posted the smackdown and said if anything formed it would go E or NE or here. It's always good to look at the 500mb charts to get and idea of where things will go but I have no time to do any of my own checking...maybe a pro met can chime-in with some analysis/clarity. Right now it's like the system is kryptonite - nobody is even mentioning - nothing at all in the local AFD - it which is a little odd.

You are absolutelyy correct Jason! No discussions at all! Im confused because as you mentioned above as far as track goes, I've heard its gonna head NE towards FL, then if anything develops, N towards us in TX and also west back into MX and latest I've heard is that it's just going to meander then washout in the Gulf. Im about to give up on 95!

[srainhoutx]

RECON is in the air heading SW from Biloxi. We'll know in a couple of hours if we have anything SSE of Brownsville or not.

[Alvin Girl]

It is confusing. Last week there was a lot of talk of a low forming along the trough or front and then drifting northward to the Texas coast. Then last night Wxman57 posted the smackdown and said if anything formed it would go E or NE or here. It's always good to look at the 500mb charts to get and idea of where things will go but I have no time to do any of my own checking...maybe a pro met can chime-in with some analysis/clarity. Right now it's like the system is kryptonite - nobody is even mentioning - nothing at all in the local AFD - it which is a little odd.

You are absolutelyy correct Jason! No discussions at all! Im confused because as you mentioned above as far as track goes, I've heard its gonna head NE towards FL, then if anything develops, N towards us in TX and also west back into MX and latest I've heard is that it's just going to meander then washout in the Gulf. Im about to give up on 95!

I'm right there with you guys (djmike and jasons) - really wondering why there has been no mention locally. I watched 3 different stations' wx casts last night and this a.m. there seemed to be more concern over 94L than what may be right on our door step. Maybe because of the uncertainty in the forecast at this point? But still, it should have at least been mentioned. If RECON does find something out there, lots of people will probably be surprised later today. Which is why I'm so glad to know of this forum