August:Hot & Dry To End The Month/SE TX

[Belmer]

Some serious rain going on in San Antonio and the surrounding area right now. At this rate, I expect some places will get up to 8+ inches of rain. I'm sure we will see pictures and videos later today of the flooding that is occurring. Not looking too good for those folks.

As for here, slow strong line of storms moving East right now and sitting over Downtown at this moment with moderate rain behind it. Localize flooding is possible with our rain as well. Here in Pasadena, I'm hearing thunder.
With this early morning rain, I can only think that his will stabilize the atmosphere enough to reduce any possible severe weather developing later today.

[Katdaddy]

Awaken by thunder. Very heavy storms moving across SE TX currently. Lots of lightening ongoing. It wont be long until heavy rains begin in N Galveston County.

[Belmer]

Bad here in Pasadena right now. Right before it started pouring, some strong gusty winds blew through. Now winds have calmed down but the lightning is just beyond vivid here. Surprisingly though, thunder isn't all that loud. Coming down in buckets at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

GMZ335-191030-
435 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
GALVESTON BAY...

AT 430 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...WERE LOCATED BETWEEN
SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 KNOTS.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF GALVESTON BAY.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BAY.
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS.

[txflagwaver]

Have not seen it rain this hard for this long in a long time....

[srainhoutx]

The GFS and Euro are suggesting we may well destabilize enough to bring another round of storms his afternoon before we dry out. It is noteworthy that the NAM (WRF/NMM) suggest a potent short wave dropping SE in the NW flow from CO/NM could bring additional storms to the area on Tuesday and HGX makes mention of this in their morning update. Eyes will then turn to the tropics as 94L enter the picture and nears the Caribbean Islands. While a lot can change, the long range GFS and Euro are suggesting tropical troubles may well be in the vicinity of the Central Caribbean by late next week into the weekend as that disturbance treks generally W bound. We are entering a very favorable MJO phase and a robust pulse is heading E as we creep closer to the seasonal peak of tropical activity in the North Atlantic Basin. I will add that there is some chatter that the Gulf may be closed for the year, tropical threat wise. That could not be further from the truth, IMO. We will see...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER ROBUST BURST OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DUMPED SOME
HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH ANOTHER
SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS WALLER AND NORTHERN HARRIS
COUNTIES. DWH (TOMBALL ASOS) REPORTED 3.42 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN
1 AM AND 4 AM. PRECIP CONTINUES TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AND RADAR
TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAKENING SO FEEL THINGS WILL STABILIZE A BIT
THIS MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
HEATING BUT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP CONDITIONS BENIGN
AFTER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AFTER 18Z. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTN. BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY
LITTLE DIVERGENCE NOTED FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SHORT TERM MODELS WHICH PAINT A DRIER PICTURE FOR LATER TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA BUT THE
NAM DOES NOT DRY THINGS OUT AS MUCH AND THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER FURTHER ON TUESDAY. THE
NAM BRINGS A STRONG S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWS PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.9
INCHES WITH A K INDEX NEAR 40. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE SO AM HESITANT TO DISMISS THE NAM SOLUTION. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP. HAVE INTRODUCED SLT CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY JUST IN CASE THE NAM IS ON TO SOMETHING.

MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND
PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.8 INCHES ON WED AND THU. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS SO FEEL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND MODERATE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY SO WILL AGAIN CARRY 20 POPS
ON FRI/SAT.

TEMP FCST IS AGAIN TOUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE THIS
AFTN SO FEEL HEATING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE LEVEL OF DRYNESS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DRIER
GFS AND WETTER NAM. MEX GUIDANCE WENT WARMER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND LEANED TOWARD THE MEX TEMPS FRI-SUN.

[ticka1]

is this going to last most of the day or move of the coast quickly? lots of thunder lightning and rain here at the house!

[srainhoutx]

With the overnight very heavy storms and the moderate rains that have been falling since around 8:30 AM up here in NW Harris County, I have 3.25 inches of rain in the old rain bucket for the past 24 hours.

[jasons2k]

.10" yesterday and 2.30" overnight

[Portastorm]

Glad to see you SE Texas folks getting ample rainfall!

West (and slightly north of you), we've seen 24-hour rainfall totals ranging from 1-4 inches in the Austin metropolitan area. The Portastorm Weather Center has about 1.3 inches in the rain pail.

[jasons2k]

So many questions and no clear answers...

Are we 100% done with the rain for today (north of I-10) or will there be redevelopment this afternoon? Who knows....
Will a low form in the Gulf and push this way later this week? Who knows....
Is the convection offshore the MX coast this morning the beginning of something or just a pulse that will vanish? Who knows....
Why does the NWS have only 20% POPS for later this week when there has been all this talk of another slug of moisture moving-in from the Gulf? Who knows...

[tireman4]

Indeed Jason...more questions...more to follow...interesting week ahead.

[tireman4]

I have heard...and maybe I think Dan stated this...that once one cool front comes through, it allows for others to come through and not have such a hard time making it down here. Am I all wet on this or is there rationale to this thinking?

[Portastorm]

I have heard...and maybe I think Dan stated this...that once one cool front comes through, it allows for others to come through and not have such a hard time making it down here. Am I all wet on this or is there rationale to this thinking?

That is, more or less, true ... although one could argue that this really isn't much of a front. But considering we have weak El Nino conditions now ongoing, it is quite possible that the westerlies are taking control of the large scale weather patterns a little earlier than usual. That would mean cool fronts earlier than normal for us and perhaps more frequent ones at that. Dan was right, of course!

[JackCruz]

Did we really make it to 94 degrees yesterday? I find that hard to believe. All day I was monitoring the weather and every where I checked prior to our rainfall we were well below 90 degrees and the then the rain came....so I still can't believe we hit 94 degrees.

It's starting to clear up now, but hopefully we don't make that 91 degrees.

[jasons2k]

I hit 96 yesterday, so it was pretty hot not too far from the airport.

The sun is out here too and I'm up to 82 now. I wonder if things will recharge before the actual front moves through.

[Andrew]

Anyone see the 12z cmc?

[Andrew]

Srain posted about it over in the tropics forum

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... &start=200

[jasons2k]

Up to 86 here now. No updated AFD from the NWS. I guess they aren't willing to tip their hand on rain chances for this afternoon. I have a hunch we're seeing more sun than they expected and they're not sure what to do with it.

[djjordan]

Pretty sure the rain is done for the day and evening. Now all eyes turn back to the Gulf, and even in the longer range the Atlantic.