Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[Andrew]

Those pressures really dropped. Ernesto is finally looking good and looking at current steering currents it doesn't look like this will pick up much more speed right now. That should give it a little more time to get a little stronger.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1800 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.5W AT 07/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.5W AT 07/1800Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[biggerbyte]

Same routine, folks. I hope no one has forgotten how off these models can be, and how conditions change and alter forecasts. Someone is going to have to deal with a big bad hurricane, especially if current trends continue. Let us remember how Ike was not supposed to have done what he did, and "official" tracks kept changing until the bullseye was right over SE Texas. I don't think I need to remind anyone that as long as there is a live hurricane in the Carribean or Gulf, it would not be wise to assume anything, and never rely on these model runs. All that matters is what it IS doing, not what it should be doing. Heads up, entire gulf coast.

[wxman57]

Same routine, folks. I hope no one has forgotten how off these models can be, and how conditions change and alter forecasts. Someone is going to have to deal with a big bad hurricane, especially if current trends continue. Let us remember how Ike was not supposed to have done what he did, and "official" tracks kept changing until the bullseye was right over SE Texas. I don't think I need to remind anyone that as long as there is a live hurricane in the Carribean or Gulf, it would not be wise to assume anything, and never rely on these model runs. All that matters is what it IS doing, not what it should be doing. Heads up, entire gulf coast.

I don't think we need to be concerned about it coming this way. The ridge should be rebuilding across Texas and the northern Gulf over the next 48 hrs. Ernesto is not doing anything it wasn't forecast to do. The WNW jog was forecast from 5 days ago in response to the upper low moving SW into the BoC. But that low will be continuing to move off to the SW as the ridge builds over us.

Nonetheless, one should never turn his back on a hurricane...

[biggerbyte]

Same routine, folks. I hope no one has forgotten how off these models can be, and how conditions change and alter forecasts. Someone is going to have to deal with a big bad hurricane, especially if current trends continue. Let us remember how Ike was not supposed to have done what he did, and "official" tracks kept changing until the bullseye was right over SE Texas. I don't think I need to remind anyone that as long as there is a live hurricane in the Carribean or Gulf, it would not be wise to assume anything, and never rely on these model runs. All that matters is what it IS doing, not what it should be doing. Heads up, entire gulf coast.

It's not coming to Houston, biggerbyte. Ridge should be rebuilding across Texas and the northern Gulf over the next 48 hrs. Ernesto is not doing anything it wasn't forecast to do. The WNW jog was forecast from 5 days ago in response to the upper low moving SW into the BoC. But that low will be continuing to move off to the SW.

Nonetheless, one should never turn his back on a hurricane...

LOL! Wait a minute. Are you suggesting I am wish casting this to Texas? I never said he is coming to Houston. I'm not saying it is going anywhere, for that matter. Wow!

Anyway!!!

I like that word, "should". Another model forecast? I can not count the times that something was "supposed to happen", but for whatever reason did not. What I am saying is, look at the possibilities if current forecasts do not come to fruition. There is way too much at stake here. We do not want anyone to have to scramble last minute to prepare for a hurricane. Assuming something is going to happen based on these model forecasts can be deadly and unreliable. This has been proven to be true time and time again. I also disagree with the current movements with Ernesto. There has been no official talk of him moving in any direction except west to wnw. I've read nothing about NW or NNW anywhere. Even the model runs as of late have not suggested any extreme northerly component. Oh well! Back to the topic of my post. Keeps your eyes peeled, folks, for any changes in the forecast that may effect you, no matter where you are in the gulf. You all are aware of the current official forecast. As of today, the US shorelines are safe. Thanks for the comments Wxman. Be safe, everyone.

[wxman57]

Ernesto isn't moving NW, it's moving WNW.

West = 259-281 deg
WNW = 282-304 deg
NW = 305-326 deg

Ernesto was listed as tracking toward 300 degrees on the last advisory, which is WNW, however I'm measuring a course closer to 295 deg in the past 3 hours at a speed of 11 kts (12 mph). That heading is well within the WNW range. The upper low NW of Ernesto continues moving rapidly WSW and out of the picture, as the models had correctly forecast from days ago. There's no reason to suspect the upper low will stop moving out, as we can already see the ridge building into NW TX. Mid level steering flow off the TX coast is already out of the ENE as the ridge begins building offshore.

Yes, we should continue to monitor a hurricane in the NW Caribbean, but that's all for now.

[djjordan]

Tropics sure are heating up though ..... gonna be interesting to watch what develops over the next month.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jgreak]

He is a very big storm, and looking very symmetrical and pretty this afternoon!

[srainhoutx]

He is a very big storm, and looking very symmetrical and pretty this afternoon!

We may see a pinhole eye developing with Ernesto...

[unome]

very nice, it would fill the entire Gulf

http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg

[Andrew]

Another view:

[biggerbyte]

Looks just a little like Ike. Amazing where this is now compared to how it looked when we all gave up.

[wxman57]

Belize radar has a good shot of Ernesto. Current movement about 270 deg or just south of that:
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

[srainhoutx]

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/images/stori ... kmloop.gif

[biggerbyte]

Wobble, Wobble. Wobble here, wobble there. Need to get a fix on exact movement. Wobble southward would generally mean a west movement.

[sleetstorm]

Ernesto appears to have made landfall on the Visible & RGB satellites.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Andrew]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 080543
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
100 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
WHERE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS