Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...THE LAST COUPLE OF CENTER PENETRATIONS BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS INDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS STOPPED FALLING...FOR NOW...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
CORE CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHTNING DATA...HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SFMR
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ERNESTO IS IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

AFTER THE EARLIER REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS NOW 295/10.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE NORTH OF A RATHER WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE VERY FAR NORTH OVER THE GULF.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 81.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.7N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 19.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Andrew]

Ernesto is starting to look pretty ill again.

Yea a lot of the clouds have really warmed around the center and while RI looked likely earlier now I am not so sure. Look for a burst though around the center later tonight. Unfortunately that may be too late as it may be too close to land by then.

[weatherguy425]

While convection has warmed, we are in the typical "DMIN" period. Also,m overall structure and organization appears strong. Central Dense Overcast appears to be increasing and is gaining that "fan" appearance. Convection is now beginning to fire on the eastern side and wrap into the system at the moment also.

[sambucol]

Discussion going on at another forum that the eye is reforming.

[Snowman]

Discussion going on at another forum that the eye is reforming.

I was wondering about that same thing! It looks like it could reform to the north but i don't think that will affect the track very much at all.

[skidog38]

is the track telling me the storm is going south on saturday really? its going back the other way. thats like telling me cold fronts start in texas and head toward canada.

[djmike]

is the track telling me the storm is going south on saturday really? its going back the other way. thats like telling me cold fronts start in texas and head toward canada.

Thats what I say....very rare you see that happen!

[sleetstorm]

No doubt parts of Texas could certainly use rain from Ernesto.

[Belmer]

From the 11:00pm Discussion:

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO
HAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100
NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
CONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS
OF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS
FAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT
THE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 30
HOURS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
TIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT
FOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA
INDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR
THAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS
ABOUT 1C WARMER AND INTO EVEN A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT
18-24 HOURS...THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND ERNESTO COULD STILL BECOME
A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AFTER THAT.

[srainhoutx]

Although Ernesto did not ramp up overnight, it does look better and RECON found 989mb with an expanding wind field. In other news, one of our members Hurricane Josh is enroute to Cancun and will drive S to intercept Ernesto when it makes land fall somewhere N of Chetumal. We wish him safe travels and a successful intercept and data gathering.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 13:12:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°56'N 84°35'W (17.9333N 84.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (385 km) to the E (83°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,336m (4,383ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (44°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
BANDING HAS DIMINISHED ON CENTRAL FEATURE, BCMNG MORE CIRCULAR. RUNS N THRU SSE.

[srainhoutx]

Ernesto continues to become more symmetrical and new convection is firing away from the center. The latest center pass suggested some readings in the 987mb range and the expanding wind field continues. There are no indications of dry air being an issue and I expect wind speeds to begin to respond at the surface with further strengthening right up until land fall N of Chetumal and S of Tulum.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:15:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°05'N 84°47'W (18.0833N 84.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 228 miles (367 km) to the E (80°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,327m (4,354ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 207° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT
SO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY
PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
MOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE STORM. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST ARE REQUIRED. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
WESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 18.1N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.6N 86.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 19.4N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 19.4N 93.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 15:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 15:18:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°15'N 85°06'W (18.25N 85.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the E (95°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,321m (4,334ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 346° at 43kts (From the NNW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the east quadrant at 15:24:40Z

[srainhoutx]

Ernesto continues to build convection and remains N of the official track as of this time...

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some winds with the upcoming center pass suggesting we may have Hurricane Ernesto. We will see.

[sleetstorm]

Does appear as though Ernesto is moving NNW or NW?

[srainhoutx]

Does appear as though Ernesto is moving NNW or NW?

Likely between 300 to 305 degrees. Certainly N of the official forecast points with 5 center fixes.

[srainhoutx]

Vortex message suggests we do have a Hurricane...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z

[Snowman]

The Yucutan better watch out Ernesto is looking better and better by the minute as it approaches. And it also does seem to be heading NNW. If this trend in direction continues cancun may see even worse conditions than forecasted and Belize may be spared.