Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 12:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°30'N 76°09'W (14.5N 76.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the S (170°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,502m (4,928ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 46kts (From the SE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 148 nautical miles (170 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:25:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU AUG 09 2012 - 12Z SUN AUG 12 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ERNESTO IS STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES AT A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT SLOWS
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS ERNESTO WAVERING NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
PRESSURE MAPS BEYOND THEN MAINTAIN THAT IDEA UNTIL ITS FINAL
LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAD NARROWED SINCE FRIDAY...SHOWING A LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO NORTH OF VERA CRUZ STATE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
IS NEAR AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...STEER ERNESTO
FARTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE
IF ERNESTO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MID LEVEL HEIGHT
WEAKNESS/TROUGH THAT TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THEREFORE... PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTH TEXAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...NORTH AMERICAN SYNOPSIS...

WITH TIME...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO DAMPEN...WITH ZONAL FLOW INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ATOP A STOUT UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. A
RELATIVELY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...AND THE COMBINES
WITH SHORT WAVES RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...TO CARVE OUT
A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST...RELATIVE TO THE SEASON. ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE
ATTEMPT TO BRING WEAK FRONTAL INCURSIONS INTO THE REGION EVERY 2-3
DAYS...ONLY TO RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE RIDGE
REBOUNDS.

...MODEL CHOICE...

THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN BEST FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR TIMING
OF THE TROUGH DIGGING IN THE EAST...AND FOR MAINTAINING THE
IDENTITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO
THE PLAINS ON DY 3/4 AND AGAIN 6/7. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES AS A
SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH INITIALLY...BUT COMES BETTER
INTO PHASE WITH TIME. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
GFS.
THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE OUTLIER THIS PERIOD IN MOVING THE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES QUICKER TO THE EAST.

BURKE/ROTH

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[Portastorm]

Heh, and here I was about to put to bed any hopes of Ernesto providing us with welcomed rains. HPC offers a little encouragement this morning!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LESS
WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. ALSO...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSES INDICATE DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS HAS PROBABLY BEEN DISRUPTING THE
SYSTEM. ASSUMING THAT ERNESTO IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE
FORWARD SPEED SLOWS IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT CONTINUES TO BE BELOW THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATTER HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO STRENGTHENING.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST...AT A FORWARD
SPEED OF AT LEAST 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD MOTION TO DECELERATE. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOWS A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A
LITTLE MORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL AND U.K. MET MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFS FORECAST BARELY BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.0N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[perk]

Heh, and here I was about to put to bed any hopes of Ernesto providing us with welcomed rains. HPC offers a little encouragement this morning!

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST...AT A FORWARD
SPEED OF AT LEAST 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD MOTION TO DECELERATE. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOWS A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A
LITTLE MORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL AND U.K. MET MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFS FORECAST BARELY BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK.

And the NHC shot it down with this.

[sambucol]

I know we need rain, but I'm glad we are out of the woods with Ernie.

[srainhoutx]

Clearly the NHC thinks there will be something to at least investigate as additional RECON missions have been tasked...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 051414
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT SUN 05 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-79

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-          FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 73-
       A. 06/1200, 1800Z             A. 07/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0805A ERNESTO        B. AFXXX 0905A ERNESTO
       C. 06/0830Z                   C. 06/2015Z
       D. 15.5N 81.2W                D. 16.0N 83.2W
       E. 06/1130Z TO 06/1800Z       E. 07/2330Z TO 07/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

[biggerbyte]

That "glimmer of hope" for rain is probably just a lollipop for the disappointed kiddies. We'll see, but I am not holding my breath. Not at this point anyway. It just was not ever in the cards for this system. My area in SE Texas needs more rain, while others are fine for now. Too bad.


The optimistic in me wants to stick a fork in it, but still looking out for one last moo.

[wxman57]

That "glimmer of hope" for rain is probably just a lollipop for the disappointed kiddies. We'll see, but I am not holding my breath. Not at this point anyway. It just was not ever in the cards for this system. My area in SE Texas needs more rain, while others are fine for now. Too bad.


The optimistic in me wants to stick a fork in it, but still looking out for one last moo.

Better check the radar. Big storms all over south Houston now heading north.

[biggerbyte]

I was referring to rain from Ernesto, providing he did not grow into a monster. Yes, I realize that we have some local action going on today. When it rains on my lawn from all the action you speak of, I'll get back with you with praises. A tropical system would have assured that.

Oh well!

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z Euro is suggesting Ernesto starts becoming vertically stacked as it nears the Belize/Yucatan area and continues to strengthen across the Yucatan making landfall near Tuxpan, MX just S of Tampico.

[biggerbyte]

One other thing to note. The only thing I see moving north is an outflow boundary from Harris County. As of this writing, everything is moving from east to west, and is in Harris County, south. Montgomery County is on the northern dry zone, and looks to stay that way with virtually everything currently on radar. Maybe something can fire up here along the outflow boundaries.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

ASIDE FROM A SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN
DISORGANIZED PATCHES WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE
STORM...ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING RECENTLY AND...ASSUMING
THAT ERNESTO WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS...SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A DAY
OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...THIS SEEMS
DUBIOUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HFIP INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE ANTICIPATED DECELERATION IS FINALLY OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO IS
PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A TROUGH DIPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ERNESTO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF...ARE SOUTH OF THIS
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.3N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.5N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 21.5N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 00:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 0:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°01'N 79°09'W (15.0167N 79.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 259 miles (416 km) to the SW (217°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 36kts (From the E at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE (20°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the north quadrant at 0:07:00Z

[srainhoutx]

It appears Ernesto has slowed significantly overnight and imagery is rather impressive. RECON is nearing the center, so we'll see if in fact there has been some organization since the last mission and if in fact it has stalled. The NHC believes Ernesto is still 'tilted' to the NE and not fully vertically stacked. We'll see what the day brings, but the long awaited turn to the WNW may be in the cards before the day is done. We will see.

[kellybell4770]

It appears the fat lady has sung......

[srainhoutx]

997mb extrapolated with much stronger winds in the 54mph range. Ernesto appears to have tucked under that deep convective ball.

[srainhoutx]

We have a much stronger Ernesto:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good

[biggerbyte]

Yes, finally we see some life. Game on again. Question now is, what is his next move. It will be interesting to see what changes come with the models as the day progresses.