Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[sambucol]

So, are we on the upper Texas coast in the clear? Is it possible the track shifts back toward us or is it a done deal that it's not making landfall along our coastline?

[TexasBreeze]

It's definately going ne in latest few visible frames. I still say gfs tagged this one. Convection keeps pulling it more ne than west. Dry and hot for us this week.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2012
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 86°11'W (28.15N 86.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 143 miles (231 km) to the SSW (193°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,368m (4,488ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 336° at 48kts (From the NNW at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,829m (6,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,829m (6,001ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:49:00Z

[losmabies]

Thanks for all the input. We are currently in Gulf Shores, AL for a baseball tournament but Houston is home. I will be watching the boards very carefully to see how Debby is going to effect the gulf coast.

[cisa]

I'm wondering if it's just going to sit out there and blow itself apart. The good thing is that Florida had needed the rain although Im not sure the wanted as much as they're getting all at once. If not this storm for us, the season is early. Maybe we'll get an nice TD in a couple of weeks. That would be nice...rain and less heat with no bite. No that's wishcasting.

[biggerbyte]

A shame... I feel like a kid in a candy store who has a real mean mother. Our pros, amateurs, and our best models got this one wrong. It just shows how fickle weather can be. Not to totally give up though.. Not until she is gone, gone, gone.
Anyway! Geez! Speaking of a Debby Downer.

[Belmer]

WHY CANT THE MODELS GET IT RIGHT? WE NEED THE RAIN. YESTERDAY EVERYONE WAS EXCITED, THEN THE MODELS FLIP FLOP AND NOW EVERYONES MOODS IS CHANGED. THIS REMINDS ME OF THE NO SNOW NEGATIVITY DURING THE WINTER SEASON, AND FRANKLY,THIS MODEL BS IS STARTING TO **** ME OFF. WHAT HAPPENED THIS TIME? WHY DID THEY GET IT WRONG?" WHY CANT WE GET ANY RAIN?

Well, welcome back! I was wondering when I would see those CAPS again.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

[Belmer]

What an absolute bummer! This storm is still moving N/NE. Not even sure if LA will see this. Debby sure is close to Florida, looks like GFS was right all along, whether it was having feedback issues or not.

Oh well, we're still in June. We still have a good five months of tropical concerns here for the Gulf Coast.

[biggerbyte]

Well I must say, I am done with Debby. What a crock.
I see nothing that is going to change what it going on right now. Sprinklers 101.
Next!

Kirk Out.

[Andrew]

EURO is coming in farther east this run

[Belmer]

EURO is coming in farther east this run

Doesn't surprise me. Too far to the north right now for the High to pick it up and start steering it West. Seems like there is no doubt that trough will pick Debby up and send it East. I'm sure at 4:00, NHC will have the track toward Florida.

[ticka1]

Sprinklers and a/c with power! At least we have this in the 100 degree heat while those folks in Florida will be dealing with wind, rain and probably no power when its all done.

Think folks it is only 6/24 we 3 to 4 more months of this!!!!!!

[cisa]

This may a bit off topic, but is there anything else our there of any interest?

[djmike]

Hi folks. This may be a stupid question as I dont know how to read these models that well, but what about the couple of models that still show extreme SETX/SWLA (I think HWRF and BAM)? Do we just disregard those? Thanks! Trying to learn here...

[srainhoutx]

This may a bit off topic, but is there anything else our there of any interest?

Actually there may be. Somewhere around the very end of the month of June/first week of July. But we'll save that for a later date and probably begin talking about it in a day or two when we fully get Debby out of our hair...

[Belmer]

Hi folks. This may be a stupid question as I dont know how to read these models that well, but what about the couple of models that still show extreme SETX/SWLA (I think HWRF and BAM)? Do we just disregard those? Thanks! Trying to learn here...

BAM-definitely disregard it.
HWRF-not too reliable either. Not enough to even give a second thought if the model run still showed SE TX as a landfall.

[Scott747]

The 12z Euro does hint at the possible stall and westward scenario that we mentioned earlier.

Although I use 'hint' very lightly.

[djmike]

Hi folks. This may be a stupid question as I dont know how to read these models that well, but what about the couple of models that still show extreme SETX/SWLA (I think HWRF and BAM)? Do we just disregard those? Thanks! Trying to learn here...

BAM-definitely disregard it.
HWRF-not too reliable either. Not enough to even give a second thought if the model run still showed SE TX as a landfall.

Ah. I see....Thanks Belmer. I was holding on to that "last" little bit of hope for some rain here in Tx. I guess it's best I just let 'er go....Gosh it's soooo hard to break up! Goodbye little Debbie!

[Belmer]

Hi folks. This may be a stupid question as I dont know how to read these models that well, but what about the couple of models that still show extreme SETX/SWLA (I think HWRF and BAM)? Do we just disregard those? Thanks! Trying to learn here...

BAM-definitely disregard it.
HWRF-not too reliable either. Not enough to even give a second thought if the model run still showed SE TX as a landfall.

Ah. I see....Thanks Belmer. I was holding on to that "last" little bit of hope for some rain here in Tx. I guess it's best I just let 'er go....Gosh it's soooo hard to break up! Goodbye little Debbie!

I agree! I went to bed around 2 this morning bummed out because of what the models showed, but I also went to bed hopeful that I would wake up this morning with a few surprises. Unfortunately, the surprises I woke up with are not what I wanted to see. So I'm still bummed out. But we just have to move on like we did with our crazy winter we just had and all the wish casting. I'm sure this won't be the last time we have another "Debby" storm scenario!